Wheat struggles to build momentum despite a marketing-year high in US export sales, while soybean liquidation continues and corn remains pinned near $4.50 amid weak export performance and rapid Argentine planting.
US grain markets begin Friday, October 30, mostly lower after two-sided overnight trade. Wheat is unable to extend Thursday’s rebound despite stronger export demand and reported Chinese interest in US SRW wheat. Corn continues to consolidate around $4.50, while soybeans remain under pressure as speculative longs continue to exit and soybean meal falls to a fresh two-month low. A sharply weaker US dollar and stronger crude oil provide some macro support, but crop-specific demand and Black Sea developments remain the dominant drivers.
Wheat Demand Improves Sharply, but the Market Wants Confirmation
US wheat export sales reached a marketing-year high of 846,770 MT in the week ending October 22, up 70.03% from the same week last year. The Philippines was the largest buyer, while South Korea booked 154,000 MT and Indonesia 140,000 MT. Sales for 2027/28 totaled 22,000 MT, all to Peru.
The stronger weekly number helped wheat futures recover during Thursday’s session, but the broader demand picture remains less convincing. Year-to-date commitments are still 29% below last year, compared with USDA’s forecast for a decline of only 17%. This gap explains why the market has struggled to sustain upward momentum despite the strongest weekly sales result of the marketing year.
A South Korean mill also purchased 50,000 MT of US wheat overnight, adding another positive physical demand signal.
China Rumours Lift Wheat Attention, but No Sale Is Confirmed
Thursday’s rebound was also supported by reports that China’s COFCO had made inquiries about importing US SRW wheat. The interest is important because it introduces the possibility of a new demand catalyst, but as of Friday morning no sale had been confirmed.
For now, the market is treating the China story cautiously. Confirmed buying would strengthen the demand narrative, while the absence of a transaction leaves wheat dependent on already reported export business and developments in the Black Sea.
Black Sea Shipping Sends Conflicting Signals
Black Sea logistics remain a major source of uncertainty. Two vessels have reportedly travelled safely through the Kerch Strait, suggesting some improvement in navigability. At the same time, another vessel was sunk in the Black Sea off the coast of Bulgaria.
This creates a distinctly mixed signal for wheat. Safer movement through the Kerch Strait may reduce part of the logistical risk premium, while the loss of another vessel shows that regional shipping risk has not disappeared.
Peace prospects have pressured wheat prices over the past two months, but the latest incident demonstrates why the market is not able to remove geopolitical risk entirely.
Corn Holds Near $4.50, but Export Performance Remains Weak
Dec ’26 corn is again consolidating around the $4.50/bu area. Speculative traders were net buyers of approximately 6,000 contracts on Thursday, while open interest increased by another 9,000 contracts.
The fundamental problem remains exports. US corn exports to date are running 34% below last year, while USDA projects only a 4% year-on-year decline. That large difference keeps the market under pressure and limits the significance of modest speculative buying.
Weekly corn export sales of 1.304 MMT were down 14.6% from the previous week and 28.8% below the same week last year. Unknown destinations bought 411,800 MT, Mexico 318,900 MT and Japan 251,000 MT.
South Korean Demand Helps, but Argentina Advances Rapidly
Two South Korean importers purchased a combined 204,000 MT of corn through overnight tenders, providing a fresh physical demand signal.
However, the South American supply outlook remains comfortable. BAGE reports Argentine corn planting at 47% complete, well ahead of an average pace in the low-30% range.
This rapid planting progress limits the amount of weather premium available to corn. The market therefore continues to need either stronger US demand or a more threatening South American forecast before a sustained recovery becomes easier to justify.
Soybeans Stay Under Pressure Despite Strong Export Sales
Soybean export demand remains much stronger than the price action suggests. Weekly US soybean sales reached 2.576 MMT, down 9.32% from the previous week but still 77.71% above the same week last year. China accounted for 1.627 MMT, Spain 225,000 MT and unknown destinations 153,300 MT.
Soybean meal sales totaled 347,478 MT, within expectations of 200,000–450,000 MT, while soybean oil sales reached 11,591 MT, exceeding the expected range of 0–10,000 MT.
Despite these demand figures, the soybean complex remains under pressure because speculative exposure is still large and liquidation continues.
Large Fund Length Keeps Soybeans Vulnerable
Managed money is estimated to remain net long about 445,000 contracts across the soybean complex, still historically large even after declining from the recent record of 558,000 contracts.
Soybean open interest fell by around 9,000 contracts on Thursday, meal open interest declined by 8,700, while soybean oil open interest increased by 9,000. Crush margins are steady at $2.27/bu.
The combination of a large remaining speculative long and weaker technical momentum means the complex can remain vulnerable even while export demand is relatively strong.
Soybean Meal Falls to a Fresh Two-Month Low
Dec ’26 soybean meal is trading at a fresh two-month low, creating an additional drag on the broader soybean complex. Soybean oil, in contrast, is firmer after rejecting trade into six-month lows during Thursday’s session.
Estimated Chinese soybean purchases stand at 18.5 MMT, while Sinograin is expected to auction another roughly 400,000 MT of soybeans on November 3. Its previous auction sold only 172,000 MT, around one-third of the volume offered.
Argentine soybean planting is just getting underway, with slightly more than 2% of the crop seeded.
Weather Supports South American Planting
Scattered rain and above-normal temperatures are expected to benefit Argentine planting over the next week. In Brazil, rain is forecast to favour the southern interior, with scattered showers also expected in west-central growing areas.
These conditions are not presenting a serious South American weather threat at this stage, which limits bullish weather premium in both corn and soybeans.
In the US Midwest, scattered rain is expected this weekend, followed by widespread shower activity through the middle of next week. Above-normal temperatures are forecast through the first half of November.
Weaker Dollar and Higher Crude Offer Macro Support
The US dollar is sharply lower and has fallen to new lows for the week, a potentially supportive development for US export competitiveness. At the same time, Dec ’26 WTI crude oil is up $1.90/barrel at $103.90, establishing a new contract high. RBOB is up $0.04/gallon and heating oil is $0.10 higher.
The stronger energy market provides some support to agricultural commodities, particularly the vegetable-oil complex, although crop-specific supply and demand continue to dominate price direction.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down $0.01 1/2 at $6.02 1/4/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down $0.03 at $6.42 1/4/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.00 1/2 at $6.24/bu. A marketing-year high in export sales and reported Chinese interest provide support, but year-to-date commitments remain 29% below last year and Black Sea signals remain mixed.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is down $0.02 at $4.49 1/4/bu. Prices remain close to the $4.50 consolidation area. US exports are still 34% below last year against USDA’s projected decline of only 4%, while rapid Argentine planting continues to limit weather premium.
Soybean Futures
Jan ’27 soybeans are down $0.03 at $12.32/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $2.80 at $326.50, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is up 42 points at 66.04. Meal has fallen to a fresh two-month low, while the soybean complex remains exposed to further fund liquidation despite strong weekly export sales and estimated Chinese purchases of 18.5 MMT.