Black Sea Region
Black Sea logistics remained a key regional market driver during the week. Russia continued to explore alternative export routes, including containerised grain shipments through Abkhazia toward Turkey, while Ukraine sharply increased sunflower-product exports, reinforcing Turkey’s role as a major regional buyer. At the same time, shipping risk remained embedded in trade decisions, with Bulgarian exporters increasingly splitting cargoes into smaller lots to limit exposure. The result is a market where freight, insurance and route reliability are becoming almost as important as the underlying grain price itself.
Soybeans suffered the steepest weekly decline as Brazilian currency weakness and fund liquidation outweighed strong export demand, while corn proved relatively resilient and wheat remained trapped between improving Black Sea access and better US sales.
US grain and oilseed markets finished the week of October 26–30 broadly weaker. Soybeans were the clear underperformer, with Nov ’26 futures down 34 1/4 cents on the week, while Dec ’26 CBOT wheat lost 21 1/2 cents and Dec ’26 corn declined 8 1/4 cents. Corn therefore performed best on a relative basis, although its demand outlook remained weak.
Brazilian Currency Shock Set the Tone for Soybeans
The week began with a sharp bearish shock from Brazil. The Brazilian real fell heavily following the weekend election, immediately improving the relative competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans and triggering a gap lower in US futures. Nov ’26 soybeans fell to a two-month low early in the week as speculative longs began exiting aggressively.
The pressure persisted despite strong underlying export demand. Soybean open interest fell sharply over several sessions, reflecting long liquidation rather than simply fresh short selling. By Friday, managed money remained net long 185,400 soybean contracts, but had reduced that position by 21,536 contracts during the reporting week. Managed money also cut its soybean meal net long by 34,834 contracts to 169,859.
The size of the remaining long position left the complex vulnerable whenever the fundamental narrative failed to generate fresh bullish momentum.
Strong Soybean Demand Could Not Offset Fund Selling
The contrast between futures weakness and export demand was one of the most important themes of the week. Monday’s export inspections showed 2.476 MMT of soybeans shipped in the week ending October 22, with China taking 1.652 MMT. Marketing-year inspections were already 42.4% above the same period last year.
Thursday’s export sales reinforced the strength of the demand side. Weekly sales reached 2.576 MMT, still 77.71% above the same week last year, with China buying 1.627 MMT. By Friday, total soybean export commitments had reached 28.778 MMT, 80% above last year and equivalent to 62% of USDA’s export projection, ahead of both last year’s pace and the five-year average.
The market therefore ended the week with a clear divergence: export demand was strong, but price action remained dominated by liquidation, Brazilian competitiveness and a lack of serious South American weather threats.
China Remained Central Across Soybeans and Wheat
China was a major source of demand support, but not enough to reverse the weekly trend. Estimated Chinese purchases of US soybeans remained near 18–19 MMT through much of the week, while Sinograin sold only 172,240 MT of the 512,000 MT offered in its reserve auction and prepared another auction for early November.
Late in the week, attention broadened from soybeans to wheat after reports that COFCO had inquired about US SRW wheat. No sale had been confirmed by Friday morning, but the inquiry helped wheat recover on Thursday alongside unexpectedly strong weekly export sales.
Black Sea Optimism Drove Wheat to Fresh Lows
Wheat’s dominant bearish force was the improving perception of Black Sea trade and peace prospects. Early in the week, hopes for negotiations pressured all three US wheat classes toward multi-month lows. By Wednesday, Chicago and Kansas City had fallen to fresh four-month lows, while Minneapolis established a new contract low.
The reopening of the Kerch Strait intensified the pressure. Russia permitted grain vessels to move through the strait for the first time since July, with naval escorts expected to support passage. Improved expectations for agricultural shipping reduced part of the geopolitical premium embedded in wheat prices.
The picture remained far from fully settled. By Friday, two vessels had reportedly travelled safely through the Kerch Strait, while another vessel was sunk in the Black Sea off Bulgaria. The result was a mixed physical signal: access was improving, but shipping risk remained real.
Wheat Demand Finally Delivered a Bullish Surprise
The strongest positive wheat development came late in the week. US weekly wheat export sales reached a marketing-year high of 846,770 MT, well above expectations of 200,000–500,000 MT and 70.03% above the same week last year.
The stronger number triggered a Thursday rebound, helped by the reports of Chinese interest. However, the broader export picture still lagged. By Friday, total wheat export commitments were 11.626 MMT, down 29% from last year and equivalent to 57% of USDA’s projection, below the five-year average pace of 65%.
Fund positioning remained another limiting factor. Managed money increased its Chicago wheat net short to 74,859 contracts as of October 27, reinforcing the bearish structure even after the late-week demand improvement.
Corn Was the Relative Outperformer, Not a Bull Market
Corn lost less than wheat and soybeans over the week, but the underlying demand picture remained difficult. Monday export inspections were only 625,233 MT, while cumulative inspections were 7.7% below last year.
Thursday’s sales of 1.304 MMT were within expectations, but down 14.6% from the prior week and 28.8% from last year. By Friday, 2026/27 commitments were 23.496 MMT, 34% below last year and only 28% of USDA’s export projection versus a five-year average pace of 39%.
Managed money also slashed its corn net long by 90,314 contracts, leaving it at just 55,943 contracts as of October 27.
Ethanol and South Korean Buying Limited Corn’s Downside
Corn nevertheless found some support from domestic and physical demand. Ethanol production increased to 1.118 million barrels per day, with corn use running above the pace needed to reach USDA’s usage forecast.
South Korean buyers also became active late in the week. Purchases reached 204,000 MT overnight ahead of Friday and a combined 340,000 MT through tenders on Friday.
Those demand signals helped corn outperform the other major crops, but they did not resolve the broader export deficit.
South America Offered Little Weather Premium
South American fundamentals remained generally comfortable. Brazil’s soybean planting reached 40% early in the week, ahead of the previous average cited in the material, while rainfall was expected to support planting across major producing areas.
Argentina became increasingly important for corn. The US attaché estimated 2026/27 production at 62 MMT, well above the official 55 MMT figure, while BAGE reported planting at 47.3% by Friday, well ahead of the average pace near 33%.
Soybean planting in Argentina was also underway, while scattered rain and above-normal temperatures were expected to support fieldwork. These conditions limited the market’s ability to build meaningful South American weather premium.
US Harvest Pressure Gradually Lost Some Influence
US harvest remained an important background factor but became less dominant as the week progressed. Corn harvest was 60% complete as of October 25, six percentage points behind the five-year average, while soybean harvest had reached 79%, ahead of normal.
Forecast rain across the Midwest raised the risk of some late-season delays, but the market increasingly shifted its attention toward export demand, speculative positioning, South American planting and Black Sea developments.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 CBOT wheat closed Friday at $6.03 1/2/bu, down 1/4 cent on the day and down 21 1/2 cents for the week. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat lost 20 1/4 cents on the week, while Minneapolis declined 17 3/4 cents. Black Sea peace and shipping optimism dominated most of the week, although a marketing-year high in US export sales and Chinese inquiry provided late support.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn closed Friday at $4.47 3/4/bu, down 3 1/2 cents on the day and down 8 1/4 cents for the week. Corn was the relative outperformer among the three major crops, supported by ethanol use and South Korean demand, but US export commitments remained 34% below last year and rapid Argentine planting kept the broader tone defensive.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans closed Friday at $12.22 1/4/bu, up 2 1/2 cents on the day but down 34 1/4 cents for the week. Soybeans were the week’s weakest major crop as Brazilian currency pressure and speculative liquidation outweighed exceptionally strong US export commitments. Soybean oil finished the week down 93 points, while soybean meal remained under pressure from continued long liquidation.