Latest IGC Forecasts

The large grain ending stocks will make up for the reduced production and demand will drop by only 1%.

World grain consumption will be 2,079 mln tons (2,072) including wheat 740 mln tons (737) and corn 1,044 mln tons. World grain trade will reach 340 mln tons (344) including 166 mln tons (169) and corn 137 mln tons (137). There will be sizeable decline in grain import in India (wheat) and China (barley and sorghum).

According to IGC analysts, world 2017 – 2018 grain stocks will go down for the first time in the past five seasons to 484 mln tons instead of the expected 513 mln tons at the end of 2016 – 2017. The result will be third highest in history despite the decline. Grain decline will come as a result of production reduction from 2,106 mln tons in the current season to 2,050 mln tons duing the new one. Wheat yield will be 735 mln tons (745) and corn 1,024 mln tons (1,053).

The new season grain yield in Kazakhstan will be 16.7 mln tons. The starting stocks in the country will be 3.6 mln tons, import 0.1 mln tons, consumption 9.9 mln tons, export 7.4 mln tons and ending stocks 3.2 mln tons.

In 2017 – 2018 grain yield in Russia will be 108.1 mln tons including 67 mln tons of wheat. The current seaon yield is 114.2 mln tons including 72.5 mln tons of wheat. Next year's Russian grain export potential will be 40.2 mln tons (37.2) including 30.3 mln tons (28) of wheat. Russia's domestic grain consumption will be 70.6 mln tons (71.3) including 37.6 mln tons (38) as fodder. Wheat consumption will be 38.8 mln tons (39.2).

In 2017 – 2018 world soybeans production will reach 345 mln tons versus 341 mln tons estimated in the current season. Despite the yield growth, world soybeans ending stocks will go down by 3 mln tons to 35 mln tons. World soybeans trade will grow to 145 mln tons.