EUR/USD went down to 1.1129.WTI crude oil decreased to  43.23 USD/barrel.

Oil stayed at levels around its 7-month bottom on Tuesday and investors are focusing on the rising supply signals, which undermines OPEC's attempts to support prices. "The latest data are not encouraging," says the Investment bank Morgan Stanley . "Oil stocks - both crude and OECD products, China and some non-OECD countries - are rising at about 1 million barrels per day in the first quarter," the bank said. OPEC's supply rose in May as production in Libya and Nigeria is recovering. For both countries exceptions to the mining concession have been made. According to a number of analysts the rising output in the United States are the main cause of global overcapacity. Last week we recorded the 22nd consecutive weekly increase of oil platforms. However according to the words of Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, the OPEC deal is working. According to him, the oil market is heading in the right direction, but it takes more time to be balanced.

Yesterday the wheat in Chicago rose. However the growth was not entirely unambiguous. The price of winter wheat fell for most of the day. Spring wheat rose after the unexpected low ratings for the condition published on Monday.
One of the problems came from the overall negative mood of the commodity markets, which were decreasing due to the supress of oil . Oil prices reached the lowest levels in 2017, that is 20% drop from January's prices.

Yesterday corn in Chicago dropped under the influence of good meteorological conditions in the Midwest of the United States. The corn drop limited the increase of wheat's raid up. In the coming weeks the forecasts show that the current conditions will be unchanged. The sowing of corn in the US was very problematic - rainfall and cold weather. Now the opposite, events have changed sharply. Whether there is a loss of yield potential - nobody can answer yet.

In the recent days wheat in Paris has been at the heart of the worries about the dry and hot weather in the past few weeks, and will probably be the same at least ten more days. It is currently estimated that hot weather forecasts are reflected in the prices of the culture and so far they will not rise. If there is no  rainfall  until mid-July - then everything will go up again. Considering the condition of the crops now and the big global wheat stocks, current prices may undergo a correction in decline over the next 10 days.

In Ukraine the conditions remain unchanged - dry weather.
Given all of the above, some analysts have lowered much the final wheat stocks in the United States in 2017-2018. The average US wheat yield is expected to reach 38 bushels / acre at 45.6 bushels / acre in 2016 and an average  five-year levels of 45.6 bushels / acre. In this case, stocks of hard, red, spring wheat in the US will drop to 2.45 million tonnes at 5.9 million tonnes at the end of 2016-2017. The harvest results of winter wheat indicate very low protein levels. Bearing in mind that the USDA wheat harvest forecast is made on a basis of  fewer areas recorded, but not so low yields, we may assume that the US wheat crop forecast will be well below $ 50 million tonnes. The information on the harvest of winter wheat in Kansas indicate low yields - below expectations. It is also in Kansas that there is  very low protein level of wheat - 9-10%. US now feels a shortage of quality wheat and the market understood this for days - in recent days. I expect the price of quality wheat to rise a lot, and so it will become uncompetitive on the global market.

Just to say that the USDA now estimates as very good and excellent condition of the spring wheat in the US  41% of the areas. This is the lowest level since 1995 until now. The next worst result was in 1997 - 55%.
We have to bear in mind that the second corn harvest is ongoing in Brazil, with recor high yields.

Now  wheat loses massively its potential for high crops for the major producers. That's not the case however with the corn, which in general is with big advantages except in Ukraine. The difference in prices of wheat and corn will obviously rise in the new season.

Wheat prices - yesterday wheat prices in Chicago rose 2.5 to 5.25 cents / bushel. In Texas 74% of wheat fields are harvested, 77% in Oklahoma and 22% in Kansas. Japan is looking to buy 135,747 tonnes of wheat.
Soybeans prices- yesterday soybeans prices in Chicago dropped by 8-10.5 cents / bushel. In the Argentine port Rosario continues the strike of the dockers. And in June a nearly record high quantity of soybeans will be exported from Brazil. Buyers are very active despite the decline in prices in Chicago and despite the expected big crop in the United States.

Corn prices - yesterday corn futures in Chicago fell by 3.75 - 5.25 cents / bushel. In most of the US corn belt weather conditions are improving. The US, Mexico and Canada are negotiating to change the terms of NAFTA. The government of China has allocated 375 mln USD to subsidize farmers in the country aiming to reduce the areas of corn.
These were the highlights. Interesting days passed. Nobody expected upgoing movement for the wheat..