Russia disrupted the markets with new increase of the estimate for the wheat crop

On Tuesday wheat and corn prices in Chicago dropped but soybeans rose. The variations were not big, but moderate. In Paris wheat and corn went down slightly but rapeseed significantly increased.

EUR/USD went down to 1.1757. WTI crude oil went up to  47.54 USD/barrel.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, boosted by the indications that supply has been tightening, especially in the United States. "Crude oil stocks in the United States are down in the last week. If this trend persists, then we may have bullish attitudes to oil, especially given the continuing output constraints in OPEC and Russia, "said Fawad Razakazda, a market analyst at Forex.com. Crude oil stocks in the US have fallen by nearly 13 % since the peak from March on , to 466.5 million barrels.And while US production exceeded 9.5 million barrels per day - the highest level since July 2015 - observers expect growth to slow down  as the energy companies shrink the number of active oil platforms. "It seems that the growth of US mining is rapidly losing power and if anything else is unchanged, it should be good news for OPEC and the price of oil," said Nick Norland of the CME Group.

Prices of palm oil in Malaysia continue to grow. Despite the larger production in July, retailers expected more than that, and now larger quantities of the product are bought. The forecast from Malaysia indicates that in 2017, the production of palm oil in the country will be 20 million tonnes. This is at the top of many other ratings. This is 15.5% more than 2016. By the middle of 2017 however, production growth was 14.9%. It is important to trade in oil the price difference between soybeans oil and palm oil. Last week, this difference based on FOB prices from the US and Malaysia was 144 USD / tonne in favor of thesoybeans oil. We are waiting for the data from China where we will see the reaction of a large palm oil importer at a price increase.

The data from the first day of the Pro Farmer tour show very different data on corn and soybeans yields. The market is not responding so far because the direction of the results is not clear.
In the eastern parts of Australia, temperatures have fallen sharply, creating a risky situation for wheat.
Traders take into account the declining competitiveness of French wheat, which is now 15 to 20 USD / tonne more expensive than the Black Sea. It is clear that in order to export steadily from France prices have to fall or trade will only be with Algeria.

According to the latest Oil World forecast, in 2017 - 2018, rapeseed production in the EU will grow to 22.04 million tonnes from 20.48 million tonnes in 2016-2017.
The winter wheat crop in Germany in 2017 will decrease by 3% compared to the previous year to 23.4 million tonnes, according to the forecast of the Association of German Farmers DBV. The winter rapeseed harvest will decrease by 6% to 4.3 million tonnes. The crop of spring barley will increase by 5% to 1.85 million tonnes, but from winter falls by 2% to 8.8 million tonnes. Significant problems with the quality of wheat and rapeseed have also been reported.

Celeres estimates the soybeans crop in Brazil in 2017-2018 to 109.1 million tonnes at 113.8 million tonnes in 2016-2017. The corn crop is estimated at 95.8 million tonnes (100.7). Definitely the news is happy because the crops are down, unlike the last years, when they only grew.

 

 CBOT (Chicago)         

  USD/mt

   +/-

Wheat 12.2017

 157.63

 -2.94

Corn 12.2017

 141.73

 -1.18

Soybeans 11.2017

 344.44

 +0.44

Soybeans meal 12.2017

 329.26

 -0.33

 EURONEXT (Paris)

 EUR/mt  

  +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 151.50

 -0.75

Corn 11.2017

 158.75

 -0.75

Rapeseed 11.2017

 368.75

 +3.25

Rapeseed meal 09.2017

 175.00

  0.00

 

Yesterday, corn futures in Chicago fell by 2 to 3 cents / bushel. The US Midwestern Analyst Tour estimated at 164.62 bushels per acre the yield of corn yield in Ohio, which is 4 bushels / acre more than the average level for this route over the past three years. Preliminary data for Nebraska also indicate higher yields compared to the  previous years. Safras & Mercado report that Brazilian farmers have so far sold 40.4% of their second corn crop 2016-2017 at 68.5% a year earlier. The second corn crop was harvested on 86.8% of the area (95.7).

Yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago rose by 2 cents / bushel.
Wheat futures declined on Tuesday in Chicago by 6 - 8 cents / bushel. Japan is looking to buy 133,791 tonnes of wheat from the United States and Canada. Analysts from the Russian IKAR Institute are again raising their forecast for wheat crops in Russia, this time with +2 million tonnes to 79-82 million tonnes.
Wheat in Russia has become much. It completely overshadowed the global market and broke all price stabilizers. We are now only waiting for problems and nothing else.