The Russian wheat crop may reach 90 mln tonnes

On Tuesday crop prices in Chicago moved in both directions with not so big variations. In Paris prices went down led by the rapeseed.

EUR/USD index rose to 1.1992. WTI crude oil went down to 46.33 USD/barrel.

Thecommon currency rose above $ 1.20 on Tuesday for the first time since January 2015, and the dollar fell to a four-month bottom against the yen amid the renewed geopolitical tensions around North Korea. The hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will soon announce its plans to curb the stimulus program have led to a 14% rise in the single currency against the dollar since the beginning of the year. The euro has been on the rise since Friday when ECB President Mario Draghi said in his speech that the global economic recovery is improving but does not comment on the more expensive currency.

For the second consecutive day, Chicago crop prices remained stable without a significant change. Significant sales of corn of old crop are seen on the market before the start of the harvest of the new crop. Hurricane Harvey, passing over the central parts of the United States, lowers its power in a tropical storm, but rainfall is particularly high and has caused a flood. Bad weather may stop wheat exports from several Texas ports, from which about one-quarter of the US-exported wheat passes. There are worries about the quality of corn and soybeans in the Mississippi delta.

A further decline in the US currency may support more significantly the prices of all dollar-denominated crops. At the same time, Pro Fqarmer's tour last week showed yields that are below those expected by the USDA, but not catastrophically lower. The forecast has supported the perception of the huge potential of corn and soybeans crops in the US, and the market takes this fact into account. Data on US corn and soybeans crops in the US has been stable for several weeks in a row, prompting us to achieve good results for the year, i.e. the market is relaxed for the supply of corn and soybeans.

Lower corn prices in the US led to an increase in exports, with weekly export controls showing a level of 805,756 tonnes at 720,213 tonnes a week earlier. The amount of soybeans is 716,171 tonnes (668,245). Account must be taken of the fact that now the wheat market is dominated by the Black Sea region, and corn and soybeans  are mainly derived from South America. This is evidenced by the export sales of US corn and soybeans, which for 2017 - 2018 are quite weak. Recent estimates of Russian wheat crop start from 81 million tonnes and end with the cosmic 90 million tonnes. Such results will break the market not only in the current year, but also in 2018 - 2019.Then the Russians will again have at least a good crop. It is becoming increasingly clear that the result is not accidental, but is steadily achieved and backed by knowledge, skills and abilities, i.e. it is evident how everything is done and so will be done in the years to come.

Prices of wheat in Paris were under triple pressure on the Russian wheat crop, the falling euro and another failure in the auctions in Egypt. The price of wheat in Paris reached 158.25 EUR / tonne, which is below the average production costs. The rapeseed market is nervous before September 7th, 2017, when the WTO decides whether the EU should reduce anti-dumping duties on imports of biodiesel from Argentina.

On 29.08.2017 Egypt's state-owned company GASC has purchased 295,000 tonnes of Russian and Ukrainian wheat with delivery from October 1st to 10th. Of this amount, 235,000 tonnes are Russian wheat and 60,000 tonnes Ukrainian. Prices are within 200.40 - 202.13 USD / tonne C & F. There was a supply of French wheat but the prices were quite high compared to the winning offers. The supply of American wheat was missing. It is worth noting that the Romanian proposals were very high.

In the first three weeks of August, 3.3 million tonnes of corn were exported from Brazil, up 113.2% from the same period in July and 111.5% more than in the same period of August 2016. By the end of the month, 5.4 million tonnes of corn (2.56 million tonnes in August 2016) will be exported from the country.

According to a forecast by the Association of Wheat Producers and Exporters in Serbia, due to the severe drought in July and August, corn crops will drop to 4.5 million tonnes, initially expected 8 million tonnes.

 

 CBOT (Chicago)         

  USD/mt

   +/-

Wheat 12.2017

 157.85

 +0.59

Corn 12.2017

 137.16

 -0.08

Soybeans 11.2017

 344.36

 -1.47

Soybeans meal 12.2017

 329.81

 -0.22

 EURONEXT (Paris)

 EUR/mt  

  +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 152.00

 -0.50

Corn 11.2017

 157.75

 -0.50

Rapeseed11.2017

 366.75

 -2.50

Rapeseed meal 09.2017

 175.00

  0.00

 

Corn futures in Chicago declined to 2.50 cents / bushel. USDA announced a private export sale of 226,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico from the new crop. A preliminary study among farmers in the US indicates that in 2018, with corn in the country will be sown 92.8 million acres, which is 2.1% more than 2017.
Yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago fell by 3 - 4.5 cents / bushel. The USDA reported a private export sale of 198,000 tonnes of soybeans from the new crop for China. Farmers in the US are planning in 2018 the areas with soybeans to reach 86.1 million acres.

Yesterday wheat futures in Chicago rose by up to 3 cents / bushel.