Grain Highlights 28.05.2021

28 May, 2021
Grain Highlights 28.05.2021
In their May forecast, IGC analysts lowered their forecast for the world's ending wheat stocks in 2021/22 to 287.9 million tons from 298.1 million tons in the estimate from the previous month and 284.4 million tons a year earlier.

- According to IGC, total stocks held by different countries are estimated at:

  • China - 130.6 million tons (135.6 and 129.8)
  • the United States - 20.4 million tons (21.1 and 23.5)
  • Ukraine 1.5 million tons (1.8 and 1.5)
  • Kazakhstan 1 million tons (1.7 and 1.4)
  • the EU - 11 million tons (12.9 and 10.9)
  • Canada - 5.1 million tons (6.2 and 4.8)
  • Australia - 6 million tons (7.2 and 6)
  • Argentina - 2.5 million tons (2 and 2.4)
  • Russia - 11.6 million tons (10.7 and 12.8)

The world's wheat production is expected at 790.1 million tons (790.4 and 773.8), including:

  • Canada - 32.3 million tons (34.1 and 35.2)
  • the EU - 134.6 million tons (136.1 and 124.5)
  • Australia - 26.3 million tons (25 and 33.3)
  • Russia - 79.3 million tons (77.9 and 85.4)
  • Ukraine - 27.8 million tons 27.2 and 25.4)

World's wheat exports will be 187.6 million tons (185.2 and 190.8), including:

  • Australia - 18 million tons (17 and 22)
  • the EU - 31.6 million tons (30.6 and 30)
  • Kazakhstan - 7.7 million tons (7.5 and 7.7)
  • Ukraine - 19.6 million tons (19 and 17)
  • Canada - 23.1 million tons (24.6 and 26.7)

- In the May forecast, IGC analysts have raised their forecast for ending soybean stocks in 2021/22 by 1 million tons to 50 million tons. World's soybean consumption is projected to reach 378 million tons (379). The soybean production in the new season will be 383 million tons, which will be a new record (361 million tons current record from 2020/21). The initial stocks for 2021/22 will be 46 million tons (-5 million tons compared to 2020/21) and the largest exporters will only hold 9 million tons of soybeans (23).

- In May, 350,000 tons of wheat will be exported from Russia compared to 800,000 tons in April. Over the period of July - May, wheat exports reached 32.9 million tons and the current record of 35.2 million tons was set back in 2017/18. In June, exports may rise to the highest level in recent years of 1 - 1.3 million tons. The largest buyers for the period of July-May were Egypt with 8.1 million tons of wheat, Turkey with 6.3 million tons, Bangladesh with 1.92 million tons and Pakistan with 1.5 million tons.

- As of 27.05.2021, 6.12 million hectares (96% of the forecast) have been sown with sunseed and 5.14 million hectares (96%) with corn in Ukraine.

- The European Commission has raised its forecast for the EU wheat production in 2021/22 to 126.2 million tons (124.8 million tons in the previous estimate and 117.2 million tons in 2020/21). Wheat exports in the new season remain unchanged at 30 million tons. The ending EU wheat stocks will be 10.8 million tons (11.4 million tons in 2020/21). The barley production will reach 54.5 million tons (+1.5 million tons). The corn production is projected at 71 million tons (-0.3) and corn imports are estimated at 15 million tons (-1). The rapeseed production will reach 16.7 million tons and rapeseed imports are expected at 5.8 million tons.

- According to FranceAgriMer, as of 24.05.2021, 80% of soft wheat crops are in good and excellent condition in France (79% a week earlier and 56% a year earlier). The sowing campaign of corn was carried out on 98% of the planned areas and 91% of the crops (93% and 83%) are in good and excellent condition.

- Yesterday, commodity funds in Chicago were net buyers of 32,500 corn contracts, 20,000 soybean contracts and 15,000 wheat contracts.

- In the week of May 14-20, China bought 5.69 million tons of American corn.