Grain Highlights 15.07.2022

The government of Romania has abandoned the plan for large-scale export of grain to countries from the EU and the Middle East.

- In Russia, 4.9 million hectares were harvested with cereals (+14% compared to 2021). 15.5 million tons of wheat (+46.2%) and 3.5 million tons of barley (+29.6%) were harvested.

- Over the week of July 20-26, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 5,984.9 rubles/ton (5,558.9 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 4,413.7 rubles/ton (3,775.9) and the export tax on corn will be 3,144.9 rubles/ton (3,075.1).

- Now 15-20% of oilseed processing facilities are operating in Ukraine. Until the beginning of the war, 50,000 – 70,000 tons of sunseed were processed daily, and now 10,000 – 15,000 tons are being processed.

- As of 15.07.2022, 1.2 million hectares of cereals were harvested in Ukraine (10% of the areas). 588,300 hectares of wheat or 1.7 million tons were harvested at an average yield of 2.88 tons/hectare. 589,600 hectares of barley or 1.8 million tons were harvested with an average yield of 3.09 tons/hectare.

- According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, the wheat production in the country will reach 18-19 million tons in 2022.

- The government of Romania has abandoned the plan for large-scale export of grain to countries from the EU and the Middle East. In recent weeks, the country has been pressed by a severe drought and production losses will be high.

- According to a forecast of the Association of Farmer Cooperatives in Germany, the wheat production in the country will increase by 5.1% in 2022/23 compared to 2021/22 to 22.51 million tons. Rapeseed production will be 3.77 million tons (+8.2%) and winter barley production will be 8.84 million tons (-0.5%).

- According to data from FranceAgriMer, as of 11/07/2022, 50% of the wheat areas have been harvested (+36% for the week and 3% a year earlier). The harvesting campaign of durum wheat has been carried out on 82% of the areas (+32% and 37%). Winter barley has been harvested on 97% of the areas and spring barley has been harvested on 41%.

- Over the week of July 1-7, US wheat export sales reached 1.017 million tons, the highest level since March 2020. A week earlier, sales were 286,000 tons. The major buyers were China with 265,300 tons, South Korea with 148,400 tons, Mexico with 91,300 tons, unknown buyer with 74,300 tons and Guatemala with 69,800 tons.

- According to an estimate by the Association of Soybean Processors NOPA in the United States, 44.7 million tons of soybeans were processed in the country in June, which is the lowest level for the last 9 months (-3.9% compared to May and +7.9% compared to June 2021).

- The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for the 2022/23 wheat areas in Argentina by 0.3 million hectares to 5.9 million hectares, which is 1 million hectares less than 2021/22. Wheat production will reach 17.7 million tons (-0.8 and 22.1). The 2021/22 corn production is projected at 51 million tons (+1.8).

- Authorities in Indonesia plan to reduce export taxes on the country's palm oil in order to increase exports. The harvesting campaign is coming up and the demand is not very high. There is a risk that part of the production will remain unsold. Prices are now down about 50% from the 5/23/2022 peak.