Grain Highlights 15.02.2024

Exporters of sunseed oil from the Black Sea region are forced to seek other markets after India increased its purchases of the product from Argentina due to cheaper transportation.

- Producers of sunseed oil from the Black Sea region are forced to seek alternative markets as India has increased its purchases of the product from Argentina due to cheaper transportation costs. Freight from Argentina to India costs 83 – 90 USD/ton, while from the Black Sea region to India, it is at 100 – 120 USD/ton. The oil from Argentina is 20 USD/ton more expensive. In the last week, the C&F price of sunseed oil in India has decreased by 2.5% to 825 USD/ton. Demand from Ukraine is at prices of 740 – 750 USD/ton FOB, and from Bulgaria, it is at 780 – 800 USD/ton FOB.

- From the beginning of 2023/24 until 14.02.2024, Ukraine has exported 26.269 million tons of grain /29.678 million tons the previous year/, including 2.393 million tons in February /2.707 million tons/. Wheat exports are at 10.14 million tons /923,000 tons/, barley exports reached 1.507 million tons /92,000 tons/, and corn exports were 14.355 million tons /1.371 million tons/.

- The Ministry of Agriculture in France has lowered its estimate for the areas with winter crops in the country for 2024/25, with wheat areas reaching the lowest level in the last 30 years. The areas with winter wheat will be 4.36 million hectares /4.49 in the previous estimate and -7.7% compared to 2023/24/. Barley areas will be 1.27 million hectares /1.31 and -6.6%/, which is an average level for the last five years.

- According to Oil World's estimate, after a record rapeseed production worldwide in the first half of 2023/24, global exports of products reached 8.5 million tons /-6% compared to the previous year/. From July to December, exports from Canada were 3.09 million tons /-0.5/, exports from Ukraine reached 2.6 million tons /-0.4/ and exports from Australia were 2.63 million tons /2.52/. Deliveries to the EU were 3.2 million tons /-1.3/, 57,000 tons to the UK /-175,000/, 332,000 tons to Pakistan /-113,000/, 1.9 million tons to China /-0.3/ and 1.1 million tons to Japan /+0.2/.

- According to Conab's data as of 10.02.2024, 21% of soybean areas have been harvested in Brazil /+7% for the week and 15% more than the previous year/. The first corn crop has been harvested on 19% of the areas /+5% and 11%/, and the second corn crop has been sown on 32% of the planned areas /+12% and 20%/.

- FranceAgriMer has increased its forecast for the ending stocks of soft wheat in France for the 2023/24 harvest to 3.5 million tons /3.44 in the previous estimate. The stocks of all cereal crops will increase by 37%. The export of soft wheat to countries outside the EU will be 10.25 million tons /10.1/.

- From November to January, 3.67 million tons of vegetable oils were delivered in India. Palm oil deliveries were 2.55 million tons /3.084 in November 2022 - January 2023/, sunseed oil imports were 609,640 tons /813,200/, soyoil imports were 491,400 tons /848,520/. Palm oil suppliers were Indonesia with 1.575 million tons and Malaysia with 815,500 tons. Soyoil suppliers were Brazil with 214,400 tons, Argentina with 191,960 tons, and Russia with 32,000 tons. Sunseed oil suppliers were Romania with 232,100 tons, Russia with 160,900 tons, Argentina with 119,400 tons, and Ukraine with 43,000 tons.

- Palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia will reach a record level despite concerns about damage from El Niño. So far, no damage has been observed, and there is no reason to reduce harvests, as El Niño is already in a weakening phase.