Grain Highlights 15.02.2024

According to the latest forecast by SovEcon, the wheat production in Russia is expected to reach 93.6 million tons in 2024/25 (compared to 92.8 million in 2023).

- According to the latest forecast by SovEcon for 2024/25, the wheat production in Russia is expected to reach 93.6 million tons (compared to 92.8 million in 2023). Given favorable development conditions, the current estimate has been increased by 1.4 million tons. The production of winter wheat will be 67.7 million tons (compared to 63.8 million), and spring wheat production is projected at 25.9 million tons (compared to 28.9 million).

- According to the latest forecast by Rusagrotrans for 2023/24, Russia's grain exports will be 66.7 million tons (+9% compared to 2022/23), including wheat exports of 52.5 million tons (+6.6%).

- At the end of January, grain reserves in agricultural organizations in Russia were 32.013 million tons (-0.8% compared to January 2023). Wheat reserves were 19.945 million tons (+0.9%), corn reserves were 3.428 million tons (+6.2%), and oilseed reserves were 4.886 million tons (-18.2%), including sunseed reserves of 2.482 million tons (-12.9%).

- During the period from July 2023 to the beginning of 2024, sunflower seed imports into the EU reached 391,200 tons (-78% compared to the previous season). Deliveries of sunflower seed from Ukraine were only 115,000 tons (out of 1.56 million tons), 212,100 tons from Moldova (140,000), 24,700 tons from China (21,900), 117,300 tons from Turkey (21,000), and 6,200 tons from the United States (8,000). The total deliveries of oilseeds were 10.6 million tons (-23%), including soybean deliveries of 6.95 million tons (-3%) and rapeseed deliveries of 3.3 million tons (-32%).

- According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Mexico for 2023/24, the import of yellow corn into the country will reach 14-16 million tons due to the weak crop. According to USDA estimates, deliveries will be 15.3 million tons, which is 20% more than in 2022/23.

- AgRural has raised its forecast for the second corn production in Brazil for 2023/24 by 5 million tons to 91.2 million tons (compared to 102.4 million in 2022/23). The increase is due to the rapid harvesting of the soybean crop. As of 08.02.2024, soybeans have been harvested on 23% of the areas (+7% for the week), which is the second-highest indicator after the record in 2018/19 – 26%. Second corn crop has been planted on 38% of the planned areas (+11% for the week).

- According to the forecast of the Rosario Grain Exchange for 2023/24, the corn production in Argentina will reach a record 59 million tons (compared to 36 in 2022/3), and soybean production will be 52 million tons (+32%).

- On 14.02.2024, Jordan held a tender to purchase 120,000 tons of forage barley with delivery from April 1 to 15. They purchased 60,000 tons of barley at a price of 219 USD/ton C&F. On 21.02.2024, another tender will be held to purchase 120,000 tons of forage barley with delivery within April – May.