The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0558, while the price of US WTI light crude oil increased to $68.72 per barrel.
Oil prices saw a slight increase on Wednesday as investors assessed the potential impact of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. Meanwhile, reports emerged that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia (OPEC+), are considering further postponing a planned production increase for crude oil originally set to begin in January. This decision is expected to be finalized at the cartel's meeting on December 1, where the production policy for early 2025 will be determined.
In the week ending November 22, U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 5.94 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts of a decline of around 600,000 barrels.
| CBOT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | Contract | USD/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 201.54 | -3.49 |
| Corn | March | 168.50 | 0.00 |
| Soybeans | January | 363.30 | +1.93 |
| Soymeal | January | 325.62 | +4.41 |
| EURONEXT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris | Contract | EUR/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 222.50 | -3.25 |
| Corn | March | 205.00 | -3.00 |
| Rapeseed | February | 493.00 | -13.75 |
Yesterday, traders in Chicago prepared for today's holiday, leading to a drop in prices.
Wheat Futures:
March wheat futures in Chicago dropped by 9 1/2 cents to $5.48 1/2 per bushel. Wheat futures fell in both Chicago and Paris. Markets in the United States will remain closed today due to Thanksgiving. Yesterday, traders responded to favorable conditions for winter wheat crop development, prompting sell-offs. Weather conditions are highly conducive to crop growth. Improvements have also been reported in Ukraine and Russia, with rainfall benefiting crops in Bulgaria and Romania as well. For the week ending November 21, 2024, U.S. wheat export sales are expected to range from 200,000 to 600,000 tons.
At Tuesday’s tender, Algeria purchased 140,000–150,000 tons of milling wheat, while Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of soft wheat and 100,000 tons of durum wheat. Algeria also procured 150,000–160,000 tons of wheat from the Black Sea region. Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat of any origin. Bulgarian ports are either handling or expecting ships to load 116,000 tons of wheat for export.
Corn Futures:
March corn futures in Chicago remained unchanged at $4.28 per bushel. While corn futures in Chicago were stable, Paris saw a decline. According to the EIA, U.S. ethanol production reached a record 1.119 million barrels per day last week, up 9,000 barrels from the previous week and 6,000 barrels above the prior record. Weekly inventories rose by 306,000 barrels to 22.869 million barrels. Refineries reduced ethanol consumption by 2,000 barrels per day to 890,000 barrels daily, while exports increased by 14,000 barrels per day to 158,000 barrels daily. U.S. corn export sales of the old crop year are projected at 0.8–2 million tons, with 0–100,000 tons for the 2025/26 crop year.
Anec estimates Brazil’s November corn exports at 5.1 million tons, lower than the previous forecast. South Africa’s corn production is expected to drop by 22.6% compared to last season, reaching 12.7 million tons. Algeria procured 240,000 tons of corn and 70,000 tons of soymeal from Brazil and Argentina, while Taiwan purchased 66,000 tons of US corn.
Soybean Futures:
January soybean futures in Chicago rose by 5 1/4 cents to $9.88 3/4 per bushel. Soybean and soymeal futures increased in Chicago, while soyoil futures fell, as did rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Canada. USDA reported an export sale of 132,000 tons of soybeans to China. U.S. soybean export sales of the old crop are forecasted at 1.5–2.5 million tons, with 0–100,000 tons of the new 2024/25 crop. The U.S. likely processed 5.74 million tons of soybeans in October. Anec predicts Brazil's November soybean exports at 2.46 million tons, down 12% from the prior estimate, with soymeal exports also dropping to 1.92 million tons.
Turkey's Import Tariff Changes:
Turkey has removed the 8% import tariff on sunseed within the annual quota of 1 million tons. Outside the quota, the tariff will be 12% (down from 27%). The tariff for sunseed oil imports will be 20%. In August, a tariff was introduced on unrefined sunseed oil imports within the 400,000-ton quota, applicable from January 1 to April 30, 2025. According to FAS USDA, Turkey’s sunseed production is expected to reach 1.25 million tons, down 0.3 million tons compared to 2023/24.