The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0515, while the price of US WTI light crude oil fell to $68.54 per barrel.

Oil prices declined on Wednesday amidst geopolitical tensions and as investors assessed the likelihood of OPEC+ extending supply cuts due to weaker demand. Concerns over reduced demand from China weigh heavily on the oil market. The world's largest importer may struggle to maintain its significant share of global demand through 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.

The primary issue is that supply growth outside OPEC in 2025 is expected to outpace the rise in global oil demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that supply growth outside OPEC, led by the U.S., Canada, Guyana, and Brazil, will boost output by 1.5 million barrels per day next year. In contrast, global demand for oil is expected to increase by only about 1 million barrels per day, with consumption in China likely to remain weak.

Yesterday, traders focused on Brazil's massive production potential and Argentina's supportive conditions.

Wheat
March wheat futures in Chicago rose by ¾ cents to $5.48 ¾ per bushel. Wheat futures increased in Chicago but declined in Paris. For the week ending November 28, 2024, U.S. wheat export sales are expected to range between 250,000 and 550,000 tons. Drought conditions in the U.S. wheat belt are expanding due to reduced rainfall in recent weeks. Stats Canada is expected to report wheat production in Canada at 35.04 million tons (32.95 million tons last year), including spring wheat at 25.98 million tons. In Australia, continued rainfall is affecting the quality of the new crop. According to IKAR, Russia's wheat production in 2025 is forecast at 84 million tons (previously 80 million tons). Starting December 4, 2024, Russia's export tariff on wheat will increase to 3,696.3 rubles/ton (3,020.3 rubles last week). Barley tariffs will rise to 1,767.7 rubles/ton (1,166 rubles), and corn tariffs to 4,127 rubles/ton (3,584.1 rubles), mainly due to the devaluation of the ruble.

Corn
Chicago March corn futures fell by 2 ¼ cents to $4.30 per bushel. Corn futures declined slightly in both Chicago and Paris. According to the EIA, U.S. ethanol production last week was 1.073 million barrels per day (down 46,000 barrels per day from the previous week), with stocks rising by 134,000 barrels to 23.003 million barrels. Exports decreased by 32,000 barrels per day to 126,000 barrels per day, while refinery consumption fell by 17,000 barrels per day to 873,000 barrels per day. Weekly U.S. corn export sales are projected at 0.75–1.5 million tons of the old crop and 0–200,000 tons of the new 2025/26 crop. Algeria has announced a tender for 240,000 tons of corn. Mexican authorities anticipate a resolution regarding the import of GM corn.

Soybeans
CBOT January soybean futures dropped by 8 cents to $9.83 ¾ per bushel. Soybean and soyoil futures fell in Chicago, while soymeal futures rose. Rapeseed futures in Paris decreased, but canola futures in Canada went up. Rainfall continues in Brazil, while in Argentina it is less frequent but still adequate. The soybean trade remains uncertain due to the expected policy changes under the new U.S. administration. The USDA reported a private export sale of 30,000 tons of soyoil to South Korea. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales are forecast at 1.1–2.5 million tons of the old crop and 0–75,000 tons of the new crop. Soymeal sales are expected to range from 150,000 to 600,000 tons, while soyoil sales are projected at 10,000–70,000 tons. Stats Canada is anticipated to report canola production at 18.51 million tons (19.19 million tons last year). Palm oil stocks in Malaysia are likely to decline due to lower yields.