Over the past week, the EUR/USD currency pair fell by 0.0017 to 1.0560.

The price of US WTI light crude oil dropped by $0.80 per barrel to $67.20 per barrel.

Oil prices declined on Friday as investors focused on weak demand after OPEC+ postponed a planned increase in supply and extended deep production cuts until the end of September 2026. Despite last week’s surprising reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories and the extension of OPEC+ plans to raise output until September 2026, oil prices fell further amid growing concerns about subdued global demand and oversupply in the markets.

The U.S. labor market recovered last month after being affected by storms and strikes in October, showing solid job growth that eased concerns about a slowdown in labor demand. Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 last month, following an upwardly revised increase of 36,000 in October, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose, and wages grew more than expected.

Over the previous week, Chicago March SRW wheat futures rose by 10 1/4 cents to close at $5.57 1/4 per bushel.

For the past week, CBOT March corn futures increased by 7 cents to close at $4.40 per bushel.

Throughout the past week, January soybean futures in Chicago climbed by 4 3/7 cents to close at $9.93 3/4 per bushel.

Accumulated US export sales for the week ending November 28.

*Source: USDA

Weather:

During the past week, rainfall in the USA was minimal. In Western Europe, the weather was seasonally normal. In Russia, precipitation was sparse. Heavy rain fell in Australia and Brazil, while Argentina experienced moderate rainfall.

Over the next 10 days, temperatures in the Corn Belt of the United States will drop significantly with light to moderate rainfall. In the US Wheat Belt, warm weather is expected with rain after mid-month. Western Europe will continue to see positive temperatures with some rain. The Balkans will experience relatively warm weather with light rainfall. In Ukraine, slightly positive temperatures with light rain are anticipated. In Russia, temperatures will hover around 0°C with almost no precipitation. India will remain in its dry season. No rain is expected in China. Indonesia and Malaysia will see good rainfall. In Australia, the west will remain hot and dry, while rain will continue in the east and southeast. Rainfall in Brazil will persist, while Argentina will see warm weather with moderate rainfall in the north. Overall, dry conditions in Russia will continue, Brazil will benefit from very good rainfall, Argentina currently faces no serious issues, and heavy rain in eastern Australia is damaging the new wheat crop.

GRAIN EXPORTS:

* US (September- August)  /  * Russia, Ukraine and the EU (July- June)

During the week, U.S. soybean exports remained very strong, while wheat and corn exports were at moderate levels. Weekly export sales of wheat were moderately good, and sales of corn and soybeans were excellent. Wheat exports from the EU continue to lag significantly behind the previous season. Russia slightly reduced its weekly wheat exports to approximately 750–900 thousand tons. Ukrainian wheat exports remain within 200–300 thousand tons per week, while corn exports are between 600–700 thousand tons weekly.

Wheat – On Friday, wheat futures fell in Chicago but rose in Paris. Since the beginning of the season, U.S. wheat exports have reached 48% of the USDA's annual forecast. In France, 96% of the planned wheat areas have been sown (compared to 93% a week earlier and 87% in previous years), with 86% of crops rated as good or excellent (-1% from the previous week and 77% previously). Argus Media predicts a wheat production of 23.7 million tons in Ukraine for 2025 (+1.3 million tons compared to 2024) and 81.5 million tons in Russia. Starting December 11, Russia will increase its wheat export tariffs by 32% compared to the previous week, reaching 48.57 USD/ton. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its forecast for Argentina's wheat production to 18.6 million tons, citing higher-than-expected yields in southern regions, which has fueled optimism.

The wheat market was highly uncertain during the week. This occurred despite Ukraine announcing minimum export prices, excluding very cheap exports, and Russia declaring reduced export quotas for 2025. In Russia, only 31% of winter wheat crops are rated as good or excellent (compared to 74% last year), while 37% are in poor condition or have not sprouted. Analysts still forecast a production of 81–85 million tons in Russia for 2025 due to localized rainfall. In the United States, however, winter wheat crops are in excellent condition, with improvements continuing despite the onset of winter. In Australia, rains have reduced the wheat production by 2.5–5 million tons and significantly worsened grain quality. Despite various uncertainties in the markets, rallies in wheat, corn, and soybean prices are likely in the coming weeks.

Corn – On Friday, corn futures fell in Chicago but rose in Paris. On Tuesday, the USDA will publish its December report, which is expected to show a reduction in US corn ending stocks by 0.8 million tons to 47.3 million tons. Since the beginning of the season, U.S. corn exports have reached 11.384 million tons (19% of the USDA's annual forecast and +19% compared to last year). Commitments for export account for 58% of the USDA's forecast. Corn demand from Ukraine remains high, with buyers stockpiling in anticipation of potential export cuts from South America.

There are problems in China's corn sector. Grain prices have been declining for months. State-owned company Sinograin plans to intervene in the market by making purchases to stabilize the situation and replenish the already enormous state reserves. Authorities have also initiated measures to reduce corn consumption, which are showing results. Warehouses are full of corn, and imports are happening only because domestic prices are lower. If the government deems it cannot stabilize the situation and raise prices, it may ban imports. Globally, the corn market remains stable for now, primarily due to weaker productions in Brazil, the EU, and the Black Sea region. Without issues in these areas, prices would likely be different now.

Soybeans – On Friday, soybean futures remained stable in Chicago, soymeal futures fell, soyoil futures rose, rapeseed futures declined in Paris, and canola futures rose significantly in Canada. The rise in canola prices was driven by a forecast for a lower production. StatsCan reduced its canola production forecast in Canada to 17.8 million tons (down from 18.98 million tons in September and 19.19 million tons in 2023/24). Canola exports are expected to reach 8.7 million tons, with domestic consumption at 7.1 million tons. The USDA is not expected to make significant changes to the U.S. soybean balance. U.S. soybean exports stand at 21.7 million tons, +19% compared to last year, and 44% of the USDA's annual forecast. The new U.S. administration is expected to support mandates for biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel. However, there are issues with cellulosic biofuels, as the consumption quota significantly exceeds production capacity. Refineries have opposed the changes, and required consumption levels will likely be reduced.

Palm oil stocks in Malaysia decreased by 4.3% in November to 1.8 million tons (2.3 million tons a year earlier). Monthly production fell by 5.6% to 1.7 million tons, marking the third consecutive month of decline. Exports dropped by 11% to 1.54 million tons. These figures have driven up oil prices over the week.

During the week, it became clear that U.S. soybean processing in October reached new record-high levels. Despite a strong U.S. dollar, exports of all crops from the United States remain excellent. In Brazil, rainfall continues, with soybean and first corn crops developing excellently, promising record yields. The second corn crop is expected to be planted on time. Following the forecast for a lower canola production in Canada, prices for the crop rose significantly in both Canada and Paris, which is likely to support sunseed prices in the coming weeks.

The past week was marked by new political initiatives for widespread changes globally. Stock markets reached new historical highs, while corporate profits in the US showed mixed results. The U.S. economy remains robust despite high interest rates and weaknesses among key partners, the EU and China. Tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, with escalation spreading to Syria. International relations are a complex web of shifting dynamics without clear rules. In France, the government collapsed after a very short tenure. In South Korea, significant social unrest has led to attempts to declare martial law. For now, democracies around the world are not acting in unison, while lifelong leaders in many countries are showing remarkable coordination in defending shared interests, such as spheres of influence and trade routes.

During the week, the U.S. dollar remained strong, weighing on grain markets. There is still a possibility that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates at its December 17–18 meeting, but strong labor market data might prevent this from happening.

It appears negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine are imminent. All parties seem internally prepared for them. For Ukraine, it is essential to retain its territory, or at least not lose any land beyond the current front lines. To remain independent, the country will need robust access to the Black Sea, including its current ports, through which it exports vast quantities of wheat, corn, and sunseed oil to global markets. If Russia gains access to these ports, the situation for Eastern European farmers will worsen significantly. Ukraine risks becoming another Kazakhstan—a producer without port access. This would lead to increased traffic and imports from Ukraine. Alternatively, if Ukraine falls entirely under Russian control, including its exports, Russia would dominate a significant portion of global wheat exports and a substantial share of sunseed oil exports, making other nations even more dependent on it.

Changes in FOB prices of major exporters in recent days:

During the week, FOB crop prices moved in different directions.

Wheat – FOB wheat prices showed mixed trends. Notable movements were observed in Ukraine, but we will wait until next week to pinpoint the reasons for the changes. The FOB price of Bulgarian wheat stands at 236 USD/ton (-$3/ton for the week and +$10/ton compared to a week earlier). The FOB price of Australian milling wheat is at 238 USD/ton (-$2 for the week and +$4 from the previous week), wheat with 10% protein is priced at 230 USD/ton (-$2 for the week and +$3 from a week earlier), and the FOB price of Australian feed wheat is at 201 USD/ton ($202 a week earlier).

Corn – FOB corn prices shifted significantly. Over the week, the FOB price of Brazilian corn increased by 5 USD/ton to 208 USD/ton (+$5 a week earlier). The price of US corn dropped substantially, making it the cheapest on the market.

Soybeans – FOB soybean prices declined, with the most significant drop occurring in Brazil. The FOB price of Brazilian soybeans fell by 29 USD/ton (+$19 a week earlier) to 380 USD/ton.

During the past week, oil prices rose sharply, particularly at the end of the week.

Export prices Black Sea, USD/mt (compared to the previous week):