The EUR/USD currency pair declined to 1.0474. The price of US WTI light crude oil dropped to $70.02 per barrel.

Central banks in Europe are taking a decisive turn toward interest rate cuts to support their economies as they brace for potential disruptions from Donald Trump's second term in the White House. The most drastic move came from the Swiss National Bank, which unexpectedly cut rates by half a percentage point to 0.5%, further reversing earlier tightening measures. This brings the key rate to a level last seen in September 2022, when policymakers ended nearly eight years of sub-zero monetary policy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) also reduced its interest rates as expected, cutting them by a quarter point at its final meeting of the year. Effective December 18, 2024, the rates for the deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility will be lowered to 3%, 3.15%, and 3.40%, respectively.

Wheat:
Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago fell by 4 3/4 cents to $5.58 1/2 per bushel. Wheat futures declined in both Chicago and Paris. For the week ending December 5, 2024, U.S. wheat export sales reached 290,236 tons (compared to 378,232 tons the previous week and 1,490,470 tons a year earlier). Export commitments stood at 15.84 million tons (up from 14.53 million), with weekly exports at 198,880 tons (compared to 322,388 and 289,627). Total exports since the start of the season reached 10.93 million tons (up from 8.39). Japan purchased 112,889 tons of wheat from Australia, Canada, and the U.S. Saudi Arabia announced a tender to buy 595,000 tons of wheat. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its forecast for Argentina's wheat harvest to 19.3 million tons. The Philippines is seeking to purchase 60,000 tons of feed wheat. In the coming days, snow cover is expected to form over eastern Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan, providing frost protection for crops.

In December, Russian wheat exports are expected to reach 3.3–3.5 million tons, according to SovEcon (compared to 4.1 million tons in November). Export margins for Russian exporters have fallen in recent weeks due to increased export taxes. The margin is now negative, down from +10 USD/ton a month earlier. During this period, export taxes rose from 26 USD/ton to 47 USD/ton. For the week ending December 9, 2024, Russian wheat exports dropped to 0.8 million tons, the lowest level since April. Storms in the Krasnodar region also contributed to the decline. In December 2023, exports totaled 3.2 million tons, with a five-year average of 3.5 million tons.

India:
The Indian government has lowered the stockpile limits for wheat held by traders and processors. Traders are now allowed to store up to 1,000 tons (down from 2,000), and processors can store up to 50% of their monthly processing capacity. Wheat supplies in the country are tight, and all options are being explored to stabilize prices. However, replenishing stocks is challenging with just one wheat production. In recent years, India has reported strong productions on paper, yet domestic prices remain under pressure. This suggests either smaller actual productions or higher consumption. High domestic prices are unlikely to significantly boost production. At some point, India may need to turn to global markets for large-scale wheat purchases.

Corn:
Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures declined by 4 3/4 cents to $4.43 1/2 per bushel. Corn prices declined in Chicago but showed mixed movement in Paris. The U.S. weekly corn export sales report showed an 11-week low in reservations at 946,863 tons (compared to 1,732,394 and 1,418,637), with export commitments at 35.14 million tons (up from 27.17), weekly exports at 1,183,417 tons (compared to 1,045,350 and 850,964), and total exports since the start of the season at 12.57 million tons (up from 9.56). Conab forecasts Brazil's corn production at 119.63 million tons (down 0.18 from the previous estimate), with the reduction attributed to the first corn production, while the second remains unchanged at 94.63 million tons. The Rosario Grain Exchange maintains its forecast for Argentina's corn production at 50–51 million tons.

Soybeans:
Yesterday, Chicago January soybean futures rose by 1/4 cent to $9.95 3/4 per bushel. Soybean futures  showed mixed movement in Chicago. The USDA reported a private export sale of 334,000 tons of soybeans to an undisclosed destination. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 1,173,811 tons (compared to 2,312,720 and 999,003), with export commitments at 37.28 million tons (up from 33.29), weekly exports at 1,859,119 tons (compared to 2,428,905 and 1,074,729), and total exports since the start of the season at 23.49 million tons (up from 19.28). Soymeal sales reached 176,324 tons, and soyoil sales were 63,846 tons. NOPA is expected to report U.S. soybean processing in November at 5.35 million tons. Conab forecasts Brazil's soybean production at 166.21 million tons, while Abiove estimates 168.7 million tons (up 1 million). The Rosario Grain Exchange maintains its forecast for Argentina's soybean production at 53–53.5 million tons. India’s vegetable oil imports surged to a four-month high in November as refineries replenished stocks after high seasonal demand, with increased purchases of soybean and sunseed oils.

Overall Trends:
U.S. wheat weekly export sales remain lackluster, but corn and soybean sales significantly exceed last year’s levels. Weather conditions in Brazil are excellent, prompting analysts to compete with ever-higher soybean production forecasts, with a moderate rise in corn predictions.