The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0514. The price of US WTI light crude oil fell to $70.71 per barrel.

In November, China's oil imports reached a 14-month high, rising by just over 14% compared to November 2023, according to customs data released last week. This growth encouraged markets, but it cannot yet serve as a definitive indicator of oil demand in the world’s second-largest oil importer. The likely reason is that the increased quantities of oil have largely gone into reserves. Statistics show that refineries in the country processed 58.5 million tons of oil, or 14.2 million barrels per day in November. This is a 0.2% increase compared to last November and marks the first time in the past seven months that fuel production in China has grown on a yearly basis. In recent months, fuel demand in China has been declining due to the increasing number of electric vehicles and the shift of trucks to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago fell by 2 1/4 cents to $5.50 per bushel. Wheat futures declined in Chicago, while they rose in Paris. During the week ending December 12, 2024, U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 298,075 tons (compared to 247,954 the previous week and 284,792 a year earlier), with 11.54 million tons exported since the start of the season (compared to 8.91 million). Saudi Arabia purchased 804,000 tons of 12.5% protein wheat (compared to the planned 595,000 tons), with deliveries coming from Romania, Bulgaria, South America, and several batches from Russia. Algeria announced a tender to purchase 50,000 tons of durum wheat, while Jordan is seeking to buy 120,000 tons of milling wheat with February delivery and 120,000 tons of feed barley. SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat exports in December to reach 3.5 million tons (-14.6% compared to November).

Oilseed stocks in Russia’s agricultural organizations reached 6.7 million tons (-7% compared to the previous year). Sunseed stocks were 2.8 million tons (-22%). Grain stocks totaled 31.1 million tons (-21%), including wheat stocks at 18.7 million tons (-25%) and corn stocks at 3.8 million tons (-4%). Grain reserves saw the sharpest declines in the Southern and North Caucasus federal districts.

Between July 1 and December 16, 2024, Ukraine exported 19.51 million tons of grain (compared to 16.013 million the previous year), including 1.135 million tons in December (compared to 2.917 million). Wheat exports totaled 9.207 million tons (compared to 6.723 million), barley exports reached 1.899 million tons (compared to 0.946 million), and corn exports were 8.084 million tons (compared to 8.206 million). December 2024 exports are significantly lagging behind those of December 2023.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures rose by 3 cents to $4.45 per bushel. Corn fututres increased in both Chicago and Paris. Weekly U.S. corn export inspections were 1,129,834 tons (compared to 1,057,972 and 959,925), with total exports since the season’s start at 13.30 million tons (compared to 10.15 million). AgRural estimates Brazil's 2024/25 corn production at 121.7 million tons (compared to USDA’s forecast of 127 million tons). In Argentina, rainfall has been relatively even so far. However, the forecast for the next 15 days indicates dry weather with sporadic rains in central regions, which may signal emerging problems for crops.

Yesterday, Chicago January soybean futures fell by 6 1/4 cents to $9.82 per bushel. Soybean and soyoil futures declined in Chicago, while soymeal futures increased. Rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Canada both fell. Weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1,676,444 tons (compared to 1,736,783 and 1,425,012), with total exports since the start of the season at 25.23 million tons (compared to 21.18 million). NOPA reported that U.S. soybean processing in November reached 5.25 million tons, a record for November (-3.38% compared to October and +2.19% compared to November 2023). AgRural estimates Brazil’s soybean production at 171.5 million tons. U.S. authorities are renewing efforts to halt the import of processed oil used for biodiesel production, as this undercuts soybean farmers. The largest supplies originate from China, and this practice is likely to be terminated.

At the end of the year, markets are feeling the approaching holidays, and activity is sharply decreasing. There are no significant natural anomalies such as frosts or droughts. Brazilian and Argentine crops are reported to be in very good condition. Some concerns remain regarding Russia's next wheat production, but with this crop, anything is possible. Economic issues remain on the global agenda but will take a back seat until after the holidays. Interest rates will undoubtedly be reduced worldwide, with some central banks signaling the possibility of returning to zero rates—eventually!