SovEcon has sharply reduced its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2025 by 3 million tons, down to 78.7 million tons, the lowest level since 2021, when the harvest was 76 million tons. The five-year average is 88.2 million tons. The winter wheat production is projected at 50.7 million tons (-3.6), with harvestable areas reduced to 14.9 million hectares (from 15.4 in November) due to anticipated severe frost. The spring wheat production is expected to be 27.9 million tons (+0.6). The 2024 production has been revised upward by 0.5 million tons to 81.9 million tons.

Between July 1 and December 18, 2024, Ukraine exported 19.852 million tons of grain (16.013 million by December 20, 2023), including 1.477 million tons in December (2.917). Exported wheat totaled 9.307 million tons (313,000), barley exports were 1.927 million tons (65,000), and corn exports reached 8.298 million tons (1.089).

According to the French Ministry of Agriculture's 2025 forecast, the area for soft winter wheat will be 4.51 million hectares (+8.7% compared to 2024 and -0.8% compared to the five-year average), winter barley areas will be 1.23 million hectares (-0.8), winter rapeseed areas will reach 1.34 million hectares (+0.6%), and winter durum wheat areas are expected at 206,000 hectares (-1.9%). The 2024 corn production is expected to reach 15 million tons (up from 14.62 in November and +15.5% compared to 2023).

Between July 1 and December 15, 2024, the EU imported 22.1 million tons of oilseeds, up 12% year-on-year, though oil imports dropped by one-quarter. Soybean imports totaled 6.3 million tons (+16%), rapeseed imports were 2.7 million tons (+3%), and sunflower seeds imports reached 310,000 tons (+5%). Soybeans were sourced mainly from the United States (2.77 million tons) and Brazil (2.47 million tons); rapeseed from Ukraine (1.91 million tons) and Australia (0.54 million tons); sunflower seeds from Moldova (0.19 million tons). Oil imports declined by 19%, including soyoil (111,000 tons, -64%), rapeseed oil (114,000 tons, -52%), sunseed oil (927,000 tons, -16%), and palm oil (1.422 million tons, -16%). Meal imports also decreased by 20%, including rapeseed meal (213,000 tons, -56%) and sunseed meal (1.039 million tons, -16%).

Between July 1 and December 15, 2024, the EU exported 10.54 million tons of soft wheat (-31% compared to 2023/24) and 2.09 million tons of barley (-34%). Romania was the leading wheat exporter with 2.96 million tons, followed by Lithuania (1.4 million tons), Latvia (1.33 million tons), France (1.21 million tons), Germany (1.16 million tons), and Poland (0.96 million tons). Major buyers included Nigeria (1.757 million tons), Morocco (1 million tons), the UK (0.85 million tons), Egypt (0.82 million tons), and Algeria (0.7 million tons).

Global vegetable oil prices began to decline due to the anticipated large soybean production in Brazil, set to begin in early 2025. Additionally, the U.S. administration's plan to allow year-round consumption of E15 gasoline is putting downward pressure on oil prices. Soybean oil prices in China have fallen to a three-month low, palm oil in Malaysia dropped by 4%, and soybean oil in Chicago decreased by 2.4%.

From December 1 to 15, palm oil exports from Malaysia decreased by 6.7–9.8% compared to November, totaling 660,000–671,000 tons. Authorities maintained the export tax on palm oil at 10% for January, unchanged from December.

On December 19, 2024, Tunisia will hold a tender to purchase 100,000 tons of soft wheat and 100,000 tons of durum wheat with delivery over January–February 2025.