The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0431. The price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased to $73.77 per barrel.

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after plunging nearly 2% in the previous session. Traders are assessing the latest tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, as well as the risks to oil supply from key ports in Libya. In a series of statements, Trump said he supports widespread tariffs "much higher" than 2.5%, along with duties on certain foreign goods in the "near future," listing products such as steel, aluminum, and copper.

At the same time, Scott Bessent was confirmed as Treasury Secretary. According to the Financial Times, he supports universal tariffs starting at 2.5%. During his confirmation hearing, Bessent backed stricter restrictions on Russian oil while also stating that the U.S. could "make Iran poor again" through sanctions.

Looking ahead, oil traders expect OPEC and its allies to maintain their current supply policy at next week's meeting, resisting pressure from Trump to increase production and lower crude oil prices. The group currently plans to reduce output in phased monthly steps starting in April.

Yesterday, March SRW wheat futures in Chicago rose by 9 3/4 cents to $5.45 1/4 per bushel. Wheat futures increased in both Chicago and Paris. In Texas, 42% of winter wheat crops are in good to excellent condition, slightly above the previous week according to the Brugler500 index – 322 /321/ and significantly higher than the previous year. Jordan purchased 60,000 tons of milling wheat, while Tunisia announced a tender for the purchase of 100,000 tons of soft wheat and 100,000 tons of durum wheat.

SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat exports for January at 2.1 million tons (compared to 3.4 million in December and 4.1 million in November). Rusagrotrans projects January wheat exports at 2.4 million tons, with February estimates at 2.5 million tons (4.4 million in February 2024).

Chicago wheat received support yesterday from rising Russian prices, which increased by 5 USD/ton in a single day. Egypt is now seeking to import non-Russian wheat due to limited supply and higher prices from Russia. Whether they will find an adequate substitute remains an open question. Global wheat supply is tightening, but demand from buyers is also shrinking, possibly due to waiting for price stabilization. Argentina currently offers cheap wheat, but its capacity for long-distance exports is limited. Australian wheat prices have risen for yet another week despite good availability. Russian wheat exports in recent weeks have fallen to around 500,000 tons per week, with no signs of increasing. Such low export levels of 500,000–600,000 tons per week have not been seen in a long time.

U.S. wheat crops remain in good condition for now, but a dry spring could worsen the situation. The condition of wheat crops in Russia and Ukraine is undoubtedly poor. Another crucial factor is that most of Russia's wheat planting was done using domestically bred seeds, which yield 20–30% lower than imported varieties that are no longer available in the Russian market. Local analysts confirm that Russia's grain harvest in 2025 will be at 2024 levels—around 125 million tons, with a wheat harvest of 77–78 million tons. Additionally, wheat stocks in Russia and Ukraine will be significantly depleted, leading to weak exports in the 2025/26 season. There is little hope for wheat prices to decline, and they are more likely to rise gradually.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures increased by 3 1/4 cents to $4.85 1/4 per bushel. Corn futures also rose in Chicago and Paris. The U.S. national average cash corn price rose by 3 cents to $4.50 ¾ per bushel. USDA reported a private export sale of 132,000 tons of corn to South Korea. Conab estimates that 1.4% of Brazil’s second corn crop planting has been completed (compared to 10.3% in 2024). Anec forecasts Brazilian corn exports in January at 3.35 million tons (-0.18 million from the previous estimate, -25.17% compared to December, and -47.46% compared to January 2024). A local analyst has lowered Argentina’s corn production forecast by 1 million tons to 47 million tons.

Yesterday, Chicago March soybean futures remained unchanged at $10.45 per bushel. Soybean futures were stable, while soymeal and soyoil futures rose. Rapeseed futures in Paris fell, while canola futures in Canada increased. Conab estimates that 3.2% of Brazil’s soybean crop has been harvested (compared to 8.6% last year). Anec forecasts Brazilian soybean exports in January at 1.5 million tons (-0.72 million from the previous estimate, -21.47% compared to December, and -31.3% compared to January 2024). Argentine farmers hold 10 million tons of soybean stocks and could sell 5 million tons given the reduced export taxes.

Overall, corn and soybean exports from Brazil in January are significantly weaker compared to January 2024.