Chicago Futures – Wheat, Corn, Soybeans

Wheat ended Thursday modestly higher after Wednesday’s pullback, with December 2025 CBOT wheat closing at $5.34½ per bushel, up 3¼ cents on the day as Chicago SRW led gains while Kansas City HRW slipped by a tick and Minneapolis spring wheat was only slightly firmer in the front months. The market continued to digest USDA’s higher global wheat stocks, driven by larger crops in Canada, Australia, Argentina, the EU and Russia, even as US ending stocks stayed unchanged at 901 million bushels. Strong demand signals helped stabilise sentiment: weekly US wheat export sales for the week to 13 November jumped to 850,418 tons, well above expectations and 55% above last year, while September Census exports hit 3.23 million tons, the biggest September tally in 12 years. Additional support came from South Korean purchases of 130,000 tons and CFTC data showing managed money cutting its Chicago net short to 58,761 contracts and trimming KC shorts, suggesting limited appetite to push prices much lower at current levels.

Corn futures closed slightly higher, extending the week’s constructive tone after Monday’s WASDE-led rally. December 2025 CBOT corn settled at $4.35¼ per bushel, up ½ cent, with nearby contracts up fractionally to 2½ cents and the national US cash corn index ticking up to $4.01½. Demand indicators remained positive: USDA reported a 186,000-ton private sale to unknown destinations, while weekly US export sales surged to 2.38 million tons, a four-week high, beating the 0.8–2.0 million-ton range of expectations and running nearly 60% above the same week last year. September Census data confirmed record monthly corn exports of 6.978 million tons, distillers’ grains exports 1.06 million tons and ethanol shipments of 148.4 million gallons, even as EIA figures showed ethanol output easing slightly from last week’s record to 1.105 million barrels per day. Speculators continued to pare back their bearish stance, cutting the managed-money net short by almost 32,000 contracts to 39,523, while fresh buying interest from Taiwan for 65,000 tons and a marginally higher Brazilian crop estimate from CONAB at 138.88 million tons rounded out a broadly supportive backdrop.

Soybeans posted small gains, with January 2026 CBOT futures closing at $10.93½ per bushel, up 2¼ cents, as the cmdtyView national US cash bean price firmed to $10.22½. Nearby soybean contracts gained 1–2¼ cents, soymeal added $0.30–$0.90 per ton and soyoil slipped 23–29 points, reflecting ongoing pressure from palm oil despite a still-strong year-to-date performance in the oil leg. Export activity remained brisk: USDA announced flash sales of 264,000 tons of soybeans to China and 226,000 tons to unknown destinations, while weekly US soybean sales for the week to 13 November reached 695,598 tons, on the low side of expectations but an improvement on the previous week. Soymeal sales of 357,861 tons landed toward the upper end of trade estimates, even as soyoil sales registered a net reduction of 13,345 tons. On the shipments side, September soybean exports totalled 2.856 million tons, the second-largest September volume in five years, soymeal exports marked a seventh consecutive monthly record at 1.32 million tons, and soyoil shipments slipped to 17,617 tons, the lowest since October 2024. Brazil’s CONAB trimmed its soybean production forecast to 177.12 million tons, down 0.48 million from November, while China’s state stockpiler Sinograin sold 397,000 tons of imported beans at auction, confirming active stock management rather than any abrupt demand slowdown.

Global Drivers and Key Headlines

Across the wider commodity complex, Thursday’s backdrop remained one of soft grains, mixed oilseeds and still-elevated vegetable oils, but without signs of panic. For the week to date, wheat was slightly lower in SRW and HRW and flat in HRS, corn modestly higher, soybeans weaker and soymeal under pressure, while year-to-date performance still shows nearby SRW down 3.7%, HRW down 6.7%, corn down 4.7%, soybeans up 9.4% and soyoil up 27.7%. Chinese January futures painted a similarly heavy-but-orderly picture, with soybeans up modestly while soymeal, soyoil, palm oil and corn edged lower; Malaysian palm oil was unchanged around 4,063 ringgit. CME data highlighted rising open interest in SRW, HRW, corn and soymeal alongside liquidation in soybeans and soyoil, suggesting an internal rotation of speculative length rather than a broad risk-off move.

On the policy front, a high-stakes US legal challenge to the Environmental Protection Agency’s renewable fuel decisions added an important macro layer for corn and veg-oil markets. Refiners Alon Refining Krotz Springs, HF Sinclair Refining & Marketing and HF Sinclair Parco argued before the DC Circuit Court that EPA unlawfully denied their small-refinery hardship exemption by relying on 2023 data rather than the proper 2024 compliance year and by narrowing the definition of a “small” refinery beyond what the Clean Air Act allows. Because the Renewable Fuel Standard determines how much biofuel must be blended into US gasoline and diesel and hardship waivers can directly affect ethanol and biodiesel demand, the case feeds into the broader tug-of-war between refiners, farm states and regulators over the long-term strength of policy support for corn-based ethanol and soy- and corn-oil biodiesel.

South American weather remained a core driver of sentiment, especially for soybeans and second-crop corn. In Brazil, conditions have improved markedly: central regions have seen a “vast improvement” in soil moisture after a week of heavy rains that favoured developing and reproductive soybeans, with showers expected to continue and another front set to deliver heavier rainfall to south-central areas on Friday and Saturday. That pattern leaves most Brazilian crop zones in favourable or improving shape, though heavy rains in central Brazil are being watched for potential short-term disruption to early corn and soybean progress. Argentina’s outlook was more nuanced; despite generally good soil moisture following an active spring, rainfall has slowed and is now running below normal, with next week forecast to be much drier, raising concern that parts of the Pampas could become too dry for developing corn and soybeans if the pattern persists.

Northern Hemisphere weather added both short-term logistics noise and medium-term support for river systems and overwintering crops. In the US Northern Plains and Midwest, a series of clipper systems is bringing mixed precipitation and locally heavy snow, followed by another blast of intense arctic air this weekend that could briefly push temperatures below zero before warmer conditions return early next week. The snow and cold may disrupt transportation, but the accumulating snowpack is expected to gradually recharge the Mississippi River system through winter, helping to ease low-water constraints that have hampered barge traffic, even as the Delta itself remains relatively dry and river levels continue a slow drift lower. In the Central and Southern Plains, a mostly dry and slightly warmer pattern will give way to a strong cold front on Friday, offering generally favourable overwintering conditions for winter wheat.

Further afield, Europe and Asia are experiencing broadly benign but market-relevant conditions that will shape winter-crop prospects and logistics through late December. Europe is heading into a week of warmer-than-average temperatures with below-normal precipitation across most regions except the UK, Spain and Scandinavia; soil moisture is generally adequate for dormant wheat in northern and central zones, but Italy and parts of the Balkans could become more exposed if dryness lingers into late winter. Across Asia, temperatures over the next 15 days are expected to be near normal to slightly cooler, with above-normal rainfall across much of Southeast and East Asia, including south China, South Korea and Japan, a configuration that broadly supports winter crops but raises the risk of periodic disruptions in key import and shipping hubs.

Australia’s situation remained comparatively calm, providing a stabilising influence on global supply expectations. Mid-December weather is forecast to stay largely cooperative for harvest completion, with heat gradually shifting from southwestern to southeastern regions over the coming 10 days and no pronounced precipitation anomalies expected along southern crop belts. This pattern should allow Australia to wrap up its wheat and barley harvests with limited additional weather damage at a time when global wheat balances are already being replenished by larger crops across multiple exporters.

Export flows and official data releases continued to reinforce the demand side of the ledger. For wheat, the latest weekly US Export Sales report delivered a six-week high of 850,418 tons sold in the week to 13 November, far above analyst expectations and 54.7% above the same week a year earlier, while September Census exports reached 3.23 million tons, the largest September volume in 12 years and nearly 20% above August. South Korean millers added to the positive tone with purchases of 130,000 tons of wheat, and registrations and open-interest gains in SRW and HRW underscored renewed hedging and speculative participation as December contracts approach expiry.

Corn and soybean trade flows also sent constructive signals. Weekly US corn export sales climbed to 2.38 million tons, a four-week high and nearly 60% above last year’s level for the same week, complemented by a 186,000-ton flash sale to unknown and a 65,000-ton Taiwanese purchase. September Census corn exports hit a record 6.978 million tons, with distillers’ grains exports running 1.47% above last year and ethanol shipments reaching 148.4 million gallons, reinforcing the role of biofuels and co-products in underpinning demand. For soybeans, weekly sales of 695,598 tons, while still well below last year, improved on the prior week, soymeal sales of 357,861 tons landed toward the higher end of expectations, and soyoil bookings showed a modest net reduction. September soybean exports of 2.856 million tons remained historically strong, soymeal shipments logged a seventh consecutive monthly record at 1.32 million tons, and Brazil’s slightly lower but still massive 177.12-million-ton soybean crop estimate, together with Sinograin’s 397,000-ton auction, highlighted an oilseed complex that is fundamentally well supplied but still highly sensitive to incremental news on Chinese buying, biodiesel policy, palm oil stocks and South American weather.