Chicago wheat started Thursday’s session broadly steady after Wednesday’s sell-off, with the December 2025 CBOT contract trading around $5.31¼ per bushel, flat on the day as SRW clawed back 2–3 cents overnight. The market is still digesting USDA’s higher global wheat stocks on the back of larger crops in Canada, Australia, Argentina, the EU and Russia, while US ending stocks remain at 901 million bushels. Short-covering is helping to limit further downside as CFTC data show managed money trimming its Chicago net short to about 58,800 contracts and cutting bearish exposure in Kansas City as well, while fresh demand signals include South Korean purchases of 130,000 tons and expectations for 200,000–600,000 tons in weekly US export sales for mid-November.

Corn futures opened Thursday firmer, with December 2025 CBOT corn up about 2–3 cents and trading back toward $4.40 per bushel after closing at $4.34¾ on Wednesday. The national US cash corn index has eased to $3.99, but underlying usage remains solid: EIA data show ethanol production still high at 1.105 million barrels per day, just below last week’s record, and NASS Grain Crushings put October corn grind at 476.4 million bushels, up 2.8% year-on-year and leaving corn used for ethanol slightly above last season in the first two months of the marketing year. Speculators are steadily retreating from their bearish stance, cutting the managed-money net short by nearly 32,000 contracts to about 39,500, while export interest is supported by a 65,000-ton Taiwan purchase and expectations for 0.8–2.0 million tons of weekly US sales, alongside a marginally higher 2025/26 Brazilian production estimate from CONAB at 138.9 million tons.

Soybeans were slightly higher into Thursday’s session, with January 2026 CBOT futures up about 1–3 cents and trading just above $10.91¼ per bushel after gaining 4 cents on Wednesday, even as the US national cash bean index slipped to $10.21¾. The complex remains underpinned by strong crush and steady export demand: USDA reported fresh private sales of 136,000 tons of US soybeans to China, 119,000 tons to unknown destinations and 120,000 tons of soymeal to Poland, while the delayed NASS Fats & Oils report confirmed a record October crush of 237 million bushels, nearly 10% above last year, and bean-oil stocks at 1.781 billion pounds, up almost 12% year-on-year. Brazil’s supply picture softened only slightly as CONAB trimmed its soybean crop estimate to 177.12 million tons, down 0.48 million from November, while China’s state stockpiler Sinograin sold 397,000 tons of imported beans in an auction on Thursday, signaling active inventory management rather than any abrupt slowdown in demand.

Across the broader commodity complex, Wednesday’s trade left grains softer and oilseeds mixed, setting a cautious tone for today’s session. Nearby SRW wheat is now down about 3.7% year-to-date, HRW off 6.7% and corn down 4.7%, while soybeans are still up 9.4% and soyoil an impressive 27.7% on the year, underscoring how vegetable oils have outperformed the grains. Chinese January futures echo this heavy but orderly backdrop, with soybeans modestly higher but soymeal, soyoil, palm oil and corn all slightly lower, while Malaysian palm oil was flat overnight around 4,063 ringgit. CME open-interest data show new money flowing into SRW, HRW, corn and soymeal and out of soybeans and soyoil, pointing to an internal rotation within the complex rather than wholesale risk-off positioning.

On the policy front, a US legal battle over renewable fuel standards added a fresh macro layer for corn and vegetable-oil markets. Refiners Alon Refining Krotz Springs, HF Sinclair Refining & Marketing and HF Sinclair Parco are challenging the Environmental Protection Agency’s denial of a small-refinery hardship exemption, arguing in the DC Circuit Court that EPA misapplied the Clean Air Act by using 2023 data instead of the 2024 compliance year and by improperly narrowing the definition of a “small” refinery. With the RFS program shaping how much biofuel must be blended into gasoline and diesel, and exemptions affecting ethanol and biodiesel demand, the case feeds into the broader debate over policy support for corn-based ethanol and soy- and corn-oil biodiesel at a time when refiners, farm states and environmental regulators are already clashing over the program’s scope.

South American weather remains a central intraday driver, especially for soybeans and second-crop corn. In Brazil, soil moisture in central areas has improved sharply after a week of heavy rains that favoured developing and reproductive soybeans, with showers expected to continue and another front bringing heavier rainfall to south-central areas on Friday and Saturday, leaving crop conditions broadly favourable or improving. Argentina’s picture is more nuanced: soil moisture is still generally good after an active spring, but rainfall has slowed, is now running below normal and next week is forecast to be much drier, raising concern that some parts of the Pampas could become too dry for developing corn and soybeans if the pattern persists, a risk that could eventually put a floor under prices if yield prospects deteriorate.

Northern Hemisphere weather is adding both logistics noise and medium-term support for river systems. In the US Northern Plains and Midwest, a succession of clipper systems is bringing scattered precipitation and heavy snow, followed by another burst of very cold arctic air this weekend that may briefly push temperatures below zero before a warm-up early next week. While the cold and snow can disrupt transport in the short term, the accumulating snowpack will slowly feed the Mississippi River system through winter and help ease low-water constraints that have weighed on barge traffic, even as the Delta itself stays relatively dry and river levels continue a slow drift lower. In the Central and Southern Plains, conditions are mostly dry and slightly warmer until a strong cold front arrives Friday, offering generally favourable overwintering conditions for wheat.

Farther afield, Europe and Asia are experiencing broadly benign but market-relevant weather patterns that will influence winter-crop prospects and freight flows. Europe is heading into a week of warmer-than-average temperatures with below-normal precipitation across most regions except the UK, Spain and Scandinavia, a configuration that keeps soil moisture adequate for dormant wheat in the north and centre but could leave Italy and parts of the Balkans more exposed if dryness lingers into late winter. Across Asia, temperatures over the next 15 days are expected to be near normal to slightly cooler, with above-normal rainfall in much of Southeast and East Asia, including south China, South Korea and Japan, which generally favours winter crops while increasing the risk of periodic logistics disruptions in key grain-importing and shipping hubs.

Vegetable oils continue to play an important role in shaping sentiment for the oilseed complex. Malaysian palm oil futures were unchanged overnight even as inventories remain high by recent standards, and Chinese January contracts for soyoil and palm oil were modestly lower, reflecting comfortable nearby supplies and elevated stocks in the region. Against this backdrop, soybean oil’s strong year-to-date performance is increasingly tied to US crush economics and speculative length rather than any acute global shortage, leaving the oil leg particularly sensitive to any fresh news on biodiesel mandates, palm shipments, or Chinese buying. With export sales data for mid-November due later today and traders watching both Sinograin’s auction activity and South American weather maps, the complex as a whole remains fundamentally well supplied but primed for sharp, headline-driven swings.