Chicago Market Snapshot
Wheat begins Friday softer after a mixed session on Thursday, with December 2025 CBOT wheat around $5.34 1/2 per bushel at the start of trade in Chicago. Futures are modestly lower for the week in SRW and HRW, and down for the month to date, even as US export sales hit a six-week high of 850,418 MT and cumulative commitments climb 22.4% above last year, the strongest for this date since 2013/14. Strong September exports of 3.23 MMT, the largest for that month in 12 years, plus ongoing demand from buyers such as South Korea, contrast with pressure from ample global supplies and generally benign short-term weather in key Northern Hemisphere exporters.
Corn is trading 1 to 2 cents lower early Friday, with December 2025 corn near $4.35 1/4 per bushel in Chicago after a slightly higher close on Thursday. The market is edging up on the week but still down modestly for the month and 5.6% lower year-to-date, even as export demand accelerates. Weekly US corn sales reached 2.38 MMT, a four-week high and nearly 60% above last year, pushing total commitments to 40.7 MMT, a record pace for mid-November, while September exports hit a record 6.978 MMT, underpinned by stronger distillers’ grains and ethanol shipments.
Soybeans start Friday under pressure with nearby futures down around 8–9 cents after small gains on Thursday, with the lead Chicago contract near $10.93 1/2 per bushel at the opening. Despite an 8.8% year-to-date rise in nearby soybean futures, weekly US export sales remain subdued at 695,598 MT, still 61% below last year, and cumulative commitments sit 37.5% under the prior season. At the same time, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin is preparing a second auction of roughly 513,900 MT of imported soybeans next week, signaling efforts to clear reserve space for incoming US cargoes amid a domestic supply glut created by record South American arrivals and sluggish crush demand.
Global Drivers and Key Headlines
China’s reserve management is a central driver for today’s trade: Sinograin’s second consecutive weekly auction of about half a million tons of imported soybeans follows successful sales of most of the 512,500 tons offered in the first auction after a three-month pause. Traders expect weekly offerings of 300,000–500,000 tons, with total sales in this auction round potentially reaching 4 million tons, a pace that will help free storage for stepped-up US arrivals under the recent trade truce with Washington and could pressure world soybean values if reserves are consistently rotated into the market.
Across the broader futures complex, grains and oilseeds are mixed going into the Friday session, shaping sentiment for the day’s trade. Nearby SRW and HRW wheat, corn, soybeans, soymeal and soyoil are all down for the month to date, but soybeans and soyoil remain higher year-to-date, with soyoil up more than 27%, underscoring lingering tightness in the vegoil balance sheet. In Asia, Chinese January 2026 agricultural futures show slightly softer soybeans and soyoil, firmer soymeal and corn, while Malaysian palm oil is down more than 1%, signaling some easing in global vegoil prices that can influence crush margins and planting decisions.
Weather remains a key theme, especially for wheat and southern hemisphere corn and soybeans. Europe and the Black Sea winter wheat belts are facing persistent dry weather coupled with warmer-than-normal temperatures, raising concern about soil moisture recharge and the robustness of winter crops even though immediate stress is limited. In North America, cold risks for the Northern Plains and Midwest and generally warmer conditions in the West create a volatile pattern, but moisture in many key areas is adequate, with the main longer-term worry shifting toward dryness in parts of Central Europe and the Black Sea.
In the United States, a series of clippers is bringing snow and bursts of arctic air across the Northern Plains and Midwest, with some areas forecast to stay below zero for a short period this weekend before warmer air returns next week. While such cold snaps can temporarily unsettle wheat markets, the episodes are expected to be brief, and snow cover in some regions will help protect winter wheat stands. In the Delta, limited precipitation keeps the region mostly dry and river levels on a slow downward trend, but snowmelt upstream should continue to feed the Mississippi system through winter, reducing immediate logistical risk.
South America is increasingly in focus for corn and soybean markets as crops move deeper into critical development stages. Central Brazil has seen a marked improvement in soil moisture thanks to heavy rainfall over the past week, supporting developing and reproductive soybeans, with further though lighter showers expected to maintain generally favorable conditions. Southern Brazil has benefited from recent widespread rains and will see additional frontal systems with heavier showers over south-central areas, reinforcing a broadly constructive outlook for yields.
Argentina presents a more mixed picture, adding a layer of risk premium to today’s trade. While soil moisture remains generally favorable after an active spring, rainfall has slowed, and the coming week is forecast to be much drier, especially outside the north. If below-normal precipitation persists, some developing corn and soybean areas could become too dry, and markets will be sensitive to any confirmation of emerging stress in the key Pampas production zones.
On the demand side, US wheat enjoys improving fundamentals: weekly export sales reached 850,418 MT, a six-week high and well above last year, with total commitments now more than one-fifth higher than a year ago and at their largest level since 2013/14 for this date. September wheat exports of 3.23 MMT, the biggest for that month in 12 years, alongside fresh buying interest from importers such as South Korea, underpin the demand floor even as futures are pressured by competition from the Black Sea and Europe.
Corn demand is also a bright spot: weekly export bookings of 2.38 MMT marked a four-week high and pushed commitments nearly 30% above last year, at a record buying pace for mid-November. Record September exports of almost 7 MMT, coupled with higher distillers’ grain shipments and robust ethanol exports, signal strong overseas appetite for US corn and related products, which helps offset the otherwise heavy global balance sheet and caps downside in futures.
Soybean exports are more subdued but still carry important signals for today’s trade. Weekly US soybean sales of nearly 696,000 MT were better than the previous week but remain sharply below last year, leaving total commitments 37.5% under the prior season, even as soybean meal exports continue to set monthly records, with September marking the seventh record month in a row at 1.32 MMT. September bean shipments reached 2.856 MMT, the second-largest for that month in five years, and combined with Sinograin’s new auction round and ongoing Chinese purchases of US cargoes, they highlight a market finely balanced between sluggish traditional bean demand and exceptionally strong derived demand through meal and vegoil.