The EUR/USD currency pair declined to 1.0426. The price of US WTI crude oil fell to $72.62 per barrel.

As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its first meeting of the year. This decision gives central bank officials more time to control inflation and assess how the policies of newly elected President Donald Trump will impact the country's economy. The pause in rate cuts follows three consecutive reductions since September, which have lowered the Fed’s benchmark rate by a full percentage point. The current target range is now 4.25% to 4.5%.

“The Fed will have to navigate Trump’s efforts to influence monetary policy, both through appointments and other attempts to exert greater pressure on the institution,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. He predicts that this week’s meeting will be a "dull start to what is likely to be a turbulent year for the monetary authority."

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago rose by 17 1/4 cents to $5.62 1/2 per bushel. Wheat futures in both Chicago and Paris increased. For the week ending January 23, 2025, U.S. wheat export sales are expected to range between 150,000 – 500,000 tons of the old crop and 0 – 50,000 tons of the new crop. According to ProZerno, between January 22 – 28, Russian grain exports totaled 538,400 tons (-43% compared to the previous week), including 426,000 tons of wheat, 92,900 tons of barley, 13,900 tons of corn, and 5,500 tons of peas. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates the country’s wheat export potential for the period February 1 – June 30, 2025, at 12 million tons. Global wheat supply is clearly tightening, as evident from multiple reports. Prices remain stable, with an upward outlook, independent of trends in the neighboring corn and soybean markets.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures increased by 11 3/4 cents to $4.97 per bushel. Corn futures increased in both Chicago and Paris. The EIA reported that for the week ending January 24, 2025, U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.015 million barrels per day (-84,000 compared to the previous week). Ethanol stocks increased by 152,000 barrels for the week to 25.722 million barrels, while refinery consumption increased by 4,000 barrels per day to 832,000 barrels. As expected, within just a few sessions, corn returned to the 5 USD/bushel level. Prices in the Black Sea region are likely to rise next week.

Yesterday, Chicago March soybean futures went up by 15 1/2 cents to $10.60 1/2 per bushel. Soybean and soymeal futures in Chicago increased, while soyoil futures declined. Rapeseed futures in Paris rose, whereas canola futures in Canada fell. U.S. weekly export sales are expected to range between 455,000 – 1,700,000 tons for soybeans, 100,000 – 400,000 tons for soymeal, and 4,000 – 20,000 tons for soyoil. The market remains unconvinced about the announced 10% U.S. import tariff on Chinese goods set to take effect on February 1, 2025, under the new administration. There is even less confidence in China’s potential countermeasures. It seems that all parties are preparing for negotiations, likely constructive in terms of demands and concessions.

As of January 25, 2025, the price difference between Ukrainian and Russian sunseed oil reached 70 USD/ton FOB, the highest level since November. This is due to weak raw material reserves among Ukrainian processors. In the past week, Argentina experienced rainfall, but only in some areas and in limited amounts. Temperatures are starting to rise again. More rainfall is expected next week, but with low volumes and limited impact on crops.