March 2025 wheat contracts are starting Friday’s session on a weaker note, following gains across all three exchanges on Thursday. Mar 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.87 3/4 yesterday, up 15 1/2 cents, currently down 3 1/2 cents.
Corn futures opened at $4.45½ per bushel, nearly 6 cents down from the previous day.
Soybeans started at $11.69¼ per bushel, down slightly as traders reacted to global demand concerns and ongoing harvest pressures in Brazil.
Key Developments Impacting Global Grain Markets
U.S. farm income is set to rise significantly in 2025, driven largely by a quadrupling of government disaster assistance payments. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects net farm income to reach $180.1 billion, marking the first increase in three years. While total crop receipts are expected to decline by 2.3%, primarily due to lower prices and sales volumes for corn and soybeans, the surge in government support is expected to offset the decline, bolstering overall market confidence. Agricultural producers continue to push for a revision of crop insurance programs, emphasizing the need for higher reference prices that account for inflationary pressures.
China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods following the Trump administration’s newly imposed levies have added volatility to grain markets. Despite fears of a sharp decline in soybean demand, traders found relief as soybeans were left off Beijing’s list of retaliatory tariffs. Meanwhile, wheat and corn markets remain watchful of how broader trade tensions may impact global demand. Mexico remains the top buyer of U.S. corn, purchasing 260,000 tons for the week ending January 30, while China led soybean purchases with 209,000 tons. Mexico also emerged as the largest wheat importer, securing 145,000 tons.
In South America, ongoing weather developments continue to shape market sentiment. Argentina is grappling with excessive heat across the Pampas, with temperatures soaring 5-8°C above normal. While rainfall is expected to bring some relief in the coming week, prolonged dryness remains a concern. In Brazil, the soybean harvest is progressing slower than usual, with completion rates between 7.6% and 10.32%, lagging behind last year’s pace. Rainfall patterns in Brazil continue to be divided, with persistent dryness in the South and Southeast expected to shift to wetter conditions in the coming days, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.
The Black Sea region faces a renewed cold outbreak, with forecasts predicting harsh conditions in Russia between February 16-20. Analysts warn of potential winterkill risks for wheat crops, necessitating close monitoring. Meanwhile, SovEcon has raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 38.3 million metric tons, an upward revision from its earlier estimate of 36.4 million metric tons. In Europe, colder temperatures are expected but are unlikely to pose significant risks to dormant wheat crops.
U.S. grain shipments along the Mississippi River have declined, with total barge volumes dropping to 617,000 tons in the week ending February 1, down from 653,000 tons the previous week. While corn shipments increased by 22.6%, soybean shipments saw a steep decline of 31.8%. Concurrently, barge rates in St. Louis rose to $15.88 per short ton, reflecting increased transportation costs.
Beyond grains, broader agricultural markets are also experiencing shifts. The USDA’s latest data shows that U.S. pork and beef export sales remain robust, with Mexico purchasing 21,000 tons of pork in the last reporting week. South Korea led beef purchases. Additionally, concerns over fertilizer tariffs on imports from Canada are mounting, with potential price hikes expected to impact U.S. farm operating costs.
As markets close the week, global grain traders remain focused on shifting weather patterns, geopolitical trade developments, and ongoing supply chain constraints that could shape price movements in the days ahead.