Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Market Performance
Chicago wheat futures for March 2025 started Friday at $5.87¾ per bushel, ending the session lower at $5.82¾, a decline of 5 cents. Despite losses in the final session of the week, March wheat contracts posted a weekly gain of 23¼ cents. Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures were also pressured, closing lower by 2 to 4 cents on Friday, while Minneapolis spring wheat saw fractional declines. The large managed money speculators continued to reduce their net short positions in CBOT wheat, cutting 20,340 contracts as of February 4. USDA export sales data shows total wheat commitments at 18.768 MMT, an 8% increase year-over-year but lagging the average pace.
Chicago corn futures for March 2025 opened Friday at $4.95¼ per bushel, but the market saw losses throughout the day, closing at $4.87½, down 7¾ cents. Despite the session decline, March corn posted a weekly gain of 5½ cents. Corn export commitments are up 28% from last year, with total U.S. export sales reaching 44.767 MMT, representing 72% of the USDA’s forecast. In Brazil, January corn exports fell to a four-year low at 3.594 MMT, marking a 25.2% year-over-year drop. The Brazilian first corn crop is now 18% harvested, while second-crop planting has reached 20%.
Soybean futures for March 2025 started Friday at $10.60½ per bushel but closed lower at $10.49½, a decline of 11 cents on the session. Despite the dip, the March contract still gained 7½ cents over the week. Soybean export commitments remain strong, totaling 43.071 MMT as of January 30, which is 12% ahead of last year’s pace. Brazil’s soybean harvest progress has reached 15%, significantly lagging behind last year's 23%. Safras & Mercado recently revised its Brazilian soybean production estimate higher to 174.88 MMT, while January exports dropped 62.43% year-over-year to just 1.072 MMT.
Key Market Drivers and Global Influences
The global wheat market remains influenced by ongoing geopolitical developments and export trends. Russia’s IKAR has lowered its 2024/25 wheat export forecast to 43 MMT, down 0.5 MMT from previous estimates, while its production forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 82 MMT. Meanwhile, European wheat exports remain well behind last year’s pace, with total shipments reaching 12.5 MMT compared to 19.76 MMT a year ago. In Canada, all wheat stocks as of December 31 were reported at 24.481 MMT, slightly higher than last year, while non-durum wheat stocks declined by 0.9%.
Corn markets are responding to macroeconomic pressures and policy shifts. President Trump has announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries, which could disrupt global agricultural trade flows. This announcement has led to increased caution among traders, with some adopting a risk-off approach ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn exports continue to struggle, with January shipments reaching a four-year low of 3.594 MMT, significantly below both last year’s level and the previous month’s total.
The soybean market faces multiple headwinds, particularly from shifting trade patterns and production outlooks. China, a key buyer of U.S. soybeans, has retaliated against new U.S. tariffs by imposing its own trade measures, introducing uncertainty into global soybean demand. The latest CFTC data showed only a marginal increase of 533 contracts in managed money net long positions for soybeans, indicating cautious sentiment in the market. Additionally, Brazil’s Trade Ministry confirmed that January soybean exports plunged 62.43% year-over-year to just 1.072 MMT, a stark decline that highlights logistical and demand challenges.
Export sales data released by the USDA highlights contrasting trends across different grains. While wheat sales have increased by 8% compared to last year, they remain behind the average pace, covering only 81% of the USDA’s total export projection. Corn export commitments, however, are running ahead of schedule at 72% of USDA forecasts, while soybean sales continue to outpace the average, reaching 87% of expected totals.
In South America, production concerns remain in focus. While Safras & Mercado has raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate to 174.88 MMT, StoneX recently cut its forecast to 170.9 MMT due to persistent dry weather risks in key growing regions. AgRural reports that only 15% of the Brazilian soybean crop has been harvested, lagging last year’s 23% pace. For corn, AgRural estimates the first crop is 18% harvested, with the second crop at 20% planted, reinforcing concerns over potential delays.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows shifting positions among large speculative funds. In wheat, money managers reduced their net short position by 20,340 contracts in CBOT futures, trimming the total to -90,442 contracts as of February 4. In Kansas City wheat, the net short position declined to 35,981 contracts. For corn, speculators increased their net long position by 13,496 contracts, bringing the total to 364,217 contracts, with a record 447,897 outright long contracts. In soybeans, money managers added only 533 contracts to their net long position, now standing at 57,029 contracts.
Weather patterns in major growing regions continue to influence supply forecasts. In the U.S., winter wheat conditions have shown improvement in Kansas but have deteriorated in Oklahoma and Texas. In South America, the Brazilian soybean harvest is experiencing delays due to adverse weather, while dry conditions persist in Argentina. Meanwhile, Stats Canada data indicates that Canadian soybean stocks as of December 31 stand at 4.151 MMT, up 10.9% from last year, while canola stocks have declined 19.2% to 11.382 MMT.
Looking ahead, traders remain focused on geopolitical tensions, particularly around trade policy shifts that could impact global grain flows. With President Trump’s upcoming announcement on reciprocal tariffs and China’s response, market volatility is expected to persist in the coming weeks. Additionally, ongoing production and export challenges in Brazil, Russia, and Canada will play a critical role in shaping grain market trends.