The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0365. The price of US WTI light crude oil increased to 73.32 USD per barrel.

Soybeans faced pressure on Tuesday, closing with losses of 2 to 6 cents across front-month contracts, with the March 2025 contract settling at $10.43 1/2, down 6 cents. The USDA’s WASDE report left U.S. supply and demand figures unchanged, with 2024/25 ending stocks projected at 380 million bushels, though the average cash price was lowered by 10 cents to $10.10 per bushel. Weak cash prices and a “sell the fact” reaction to Argentina’s lower crop estimate contributed to the downturn, while soybean meal futures slipped by $3.60 per ton. However, soybean oil found support, gaining 39 points, aided by higher crude oil prices.

Corn futures also ended lower, with front-month contracts declining by 6 to 8 cents, as March 2025 corn closed at $4.84, down 7 1/2 cents. The market showed little reaction to the USDA’s report, which left the U.S. carryout at 1.54 billion bushels—unchanged from last month—despite expectations of a reduction. USDA did, however, raise the U.S. average cash price by 10 cents to $4.35. On the global front, both Brazil and Argentina’s corn production estimates were trimmed slightly, with Brazil’s forecast reduced by 1 million metric tons to 126 MMT and Argentina’s lowered by 1 MMT to 50 MMT.

Wheat futures saw losses across all three U.S. exchanges, with Chicago SRW contracts down 1 to 2 1/2 cents, as March 2025 wheat closed at $5.77, down 2 1/2 cents. Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat futures followed a similar path, shedding 4 to 7 cents by the close. The USDA’s WASDE report slightly trimmed U.S. wheat ending stocks by 4 million bushels to 794 million, reflecting a small increase in domestic food use. Globally, world wheat stocks were also cut by 1.26 MMT to 257.56 MMT. Despite these changes, wheat failed to sustain bullish momentum, with weak export demand and global competition keeping the market under pressure.

Global grain markets faced a series of critical developments that weighed on prices. The USDA’s February WASDE report provided mixed signals, with little change to U.S. balance sheets but a slight tightening of global soybean and wheat supplies. Argentina’s soybean production was lowered by 3 MMT to 49 MMT, while Brazil’s estimate remained at 169 MMT. World soybean stocks were also revised lower by 4.03 MMT to 124.34 MMT.

In China, demand for both corn and soybeans has strengthened post-Lunar New Year, with improved crushing margins for soybeans due to rising meal and oil prices. The China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) report noted that domestic buyers are actively making purchases, while Beijing continues its strategy of prioritizing domestic corn purchases over imports to support local farmers.

Brazil’s soybean harvest is now 15% complete, up from 9% last week but still lagging behind last year’s 23% progress at the same point. The slow pace has raised concerns, especially with some dry conditions affecting northern regions of Rio Grande do Sul. In contrast, corn planting is accelerating, with winter corn seeding in Brazil’s Center-South reaching 20%, up from 9% the previous week, though still trailing last year’s 38% pace.

Russia’s wheat export pace remains strong, with shipments expected to total 2.4 to 2.5 MMT in February, keeping exports at record levels since the start of the 2024/25 season. However, Russian wheat exports are still well below last year’s levels, when February shipments reached 4.4 MMT. The Russian government has also distributed its wheat export quota of 10.6 MMT among 219 companies, with the majority of shipments expected to go to non-EAEU countries.

Kazakhstan announced that it has resolved its grain transit issues with Russia, which had previously slowed the flow of Kazakh wheat and grains to Europe and North Africa. The country now expects to export 6.5 MMT of grain this season, with 1.5 MMT destined for European and North African markets.

French wheat production is set to expand, with the country’s farm ministry raising its estimate for 2025 soft wheat acreage to 4.57 million hectares, a 10% increase from last year’s heavily reduced crop. The expansion is expected to help replenish EU exportable wheat supplies, though it remains to be seen how weather conditions will impact final yields.

Brazil’s wheat market remains firm, with limited domestic supply supporting prices in Rio Grande do Sul. While exports are moving at a strong pace, Brazilian wheat imports also reached 716.9 thousand tons in January, the highest level since April 2020. The tight domestic balance is keeping millers reliant on imports, despite the higher cost compared to local wheat.

Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections showed a mixed performance. Corn inspections reached 1.334 MMT, up from 1.253 MMT last week, while soybean inspections slipped to 1.042 MMT from 1.140 MMT. Wheat inspections surged to 536k tons, more than double the previous week’s 253k tons, indicating a brief uptick in overseas demand. However, overall U.S. wheat exports remain sluggish compared to last year’s pace.

South American weather remains a key factor for traders. Argentina’s central and southern Pampas regions are seeing drier-than-normal conditions, raising concerns for corn and soybean development, while Northern Argentina is benefiting from above-average rainfall. In Brazil, the forecast calls for moderate to heavy rains in northern and far southern regions, which may disrupt harvesting but support later crop growth. Meanwhile, drier conditions in central areas are aiding first-corn harvesting and second-corn planting progress.

Grain markets remain highly sensitive to global trade flows, weather trends, and shifting demand signals, with traders closely monitoring South American production, China’s purchasing pace, and Russia’s export strategies in the weeks ahead.