The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0462. The price of US WTI light crude oil declined to 71.29 USD per barrel.

Wheat futures ended the session higher across all three U.S. exchanges, with March CBOT wheat closing at $5.77 3/4 per bushel, up 3 1/2 cents. Kansas City HRW futures gained 6 to 8 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat was 2 to 4 cents higher. The boost came as weekly export sales for U.S. wheat hit a 7-week high of 569,561 metric tons, with strong demand from Mexico and South Korea. Strategie Grains also raised its European wheat production estimate to 127.7 million metric tons (MMT), providing additional support.

Corn futures saw modest gains, with the March 2025 contract closing at $4.93 1/2 per bushel, up 3 1/4 cents. Weekly export sales of 1.649 MMT for the 2024/25 marketing year marked a three-week high, with Japan and Mexico as the primary buyers. Meanwhile, Brazil’s CONAB revised its 2025 corn production estimate up by 2.5 MMT to 122.01 MMT, though this remains below the USDA’s 126 MMT forecast. Favorable weather in Argentina is expected to help stabilize crops following earlier damage.

Soybean futures closed higher, with March 2025 soybeans settling at $10.30 per bushel, up 2 1/4 cents. However, weekly export sales were disappointing at 185,502 metric tons, the second-lowest figure for the marketing year, with significant cancellations shifting some volumes to confirmed buyers like China and Egypt. Brazil’s soybean production outlook was revised slightly lower due to harvest delays in key regions, with total output now expected at 170.1 MMT, down less than 1% from the prior estimate. Despite setbacks, the country remains on track for a record-breaking crop.

Brazil’s summer harvest is fueling a surge in diesel demand, according to the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report. Agricultural operations, particularly soybean production, account for about 160,000 barrels per day of Brazil’s total gasoil consumption. This underscores the scale of mechanization in Brazil’s crop production and its impact on energy markets.

Weather conditions continue to play a crucial role in shaping the global grain outlook. Brazil’s wet season showers are persisting but are expected to become less intense, allowing soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting to accelerate. However, the window to plant the second corn crop within the optimal timeframe is narrowing. Argentina is seeing scattered showers that could stabilize drought-stressed corn and soybean fields, though some crop damage has already occurred. In the U.S., cold temperatures in the Plains are raising concerns over winter wheat, while storms in the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley could slow grain transport.

Global wheat trade is also in focus. Algeria purchased up to 480,000 metric tons of wheat, while Saudi Arabia tendered for 595,000 metric tons, with offers due on Friday. Taiwan issued a 102,450 metric ton tender for U.S. wheat. Meanwhile, French wheat exports remain steady at 9.74 MMT, though stockpile estimates were revised lower to 2.81 MMT, according to AgriMer.

In South America, Argentina’s government has voided a key Parana River dredging auction and launched an investigation after receiving only one bid from Belgium’s DEME Group. The river is a crucial export route for Argentina’s grain shipments, and any delays or disruptions could impact global trade flows.

On the demand front, U.S. ethanol stocks declined by 2.7% to 25.692 million barrels, while plant production remained below analyst expectations at 1.082 million barrels per day. The drop in ethanol supply suggests stronger domestic corn consumption, adding another layer of support for prices.

Chinese agricultural futures saw mixed movement, with soybeans and soy products declining, while corn futures in China gained. Malaysian palm oil futures also fell by 1.45%. These trends could signal weaker demand for vegetable oils and feedstocks, which in turn might influence soy oil and meal markets globally.

Lastly, the Rosario Grains Exchange lowered Argentina’s 2024/25 corn forecast to 46 MMT, down 4% from the previous estimate, citing adverse weather conditions. Meanwhile, the country’s soybean crop estimate remained at 47.5 MMT.

Overall, while markets found support from strong U.S. export sales and production adjustments in South America, global trade flows, weather, and energy prices remain key factors shaping the outlook for grains in the weeks ahead.