The EUR/USD currency pair declined to 1.0448. The price of US WTI light crude oil rose to 71.85 USD per barrel.

Wheat
Wheat futures closed higher across all three U.S. wheat markets on Tuesday. The biggest gains came in Minneapolis spring wheat, which rose by 6 to 8 cents, while Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) wheat and Chicago soft red winter (SRW) wheat also advanced by 5 to 7 cents and 4 to 5 cents, respectively. Global demand was in focus as Saudi Arabia finalized a large wheat purchase of 920,000 metric tons (MT), and Japan issued a tender to buy 96,160 MT, including 34,890 MT specifically from the U.S. However, U.S. export shipments remained weak, with USDA reporting just 249,812 MT shipped for the week ending February 13, marking a 56.2% drop from the previous week. The lower export pace was countered by strong domestic buying interest.
March 2025 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.04 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents.

Corn
Corn futures extended their rally, with most contracts posting gains between 4 and 7 cents. The front-month March contract closed above the key $5.00 level for the first time since October 2023. The surge was supported by strong export demand, with USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showing 1.611 million metric tons (MMT) of corn shipped in the week ending February 13—an 18.9% increase from the previous week and 53.15% above last year’s levels. Mexico was the top destination, taking 671,925 MT. Additionally, Brazil's first-crop corn harvest was reported at 29% complete, while second-crop planting reached 36%, lagging last year’s pace. Taiwan issued a tender to buy 65,000 MT of corn, adding to positive sentiment.
March 2025 Corn closed at $5.02, up 5 3/4 cents.

Soybeans
Soybean futures saw modest gains, with nearby contracts rising by 2 to 3 cents, while new crop months advanced 5 to 7 cents. The national cash soybean price was reported at $9.77 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents. Soymeal futures declined by $2.30 per ton, but soy oil rebounded, rising 121 points on the session, supported by strength in crude oil markets. However, U.S. export demand remained a concern, as weekly soybean shipments totaled just 720,332 MT—the lowest for this week of the marketing year since 2005. The latest NOPA report showed that January soybean crush totaled 200.38 million bushels, falling short of expectations but still marking a 7.86% increase from the same month last year. Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 23% complete, significantly behind the 32% pace from last year.
March 2025 Soybeans closed at $10.38 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) layoffs dominated headlines as the Trump administration, under the direction of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, fired probationary employees from key agricultural agencies. The move is expected to impact data collection and research at institutions like the National Institute of Food and Agriculture and the Economic Research Service. The restructuring aims to "eliminate inefficiencies," but concerns have been raised about its long-term effects on farm policy decisions and market transparency.

Global weather conditions remain a significant factor in price movements. The U.S. winter wheat belt is facing extreme temperatures between -20 and -25°C (-4 to -13°F), but sufficient snow cover is expected to limit damage. Meanwhile, South America’s forecasts have turned drier, with warm conditions expected to persist across Southeast Brazil through late February, potentially impacting soybean and corn yields.

Russian wheat exports continue to decline, with shipments dropping to 0.46 MMT last week, down from 0.58 MMT the previous week. The introduction of an export quota on February 15 has constrained supplies, driving FOB prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein to $247 per MT. The IKAR consultancy also trimmed its forecast for Russia’s total 2025 grain crop to 129 MMT, citing weather-related risks.

Argentina received crucial rainfall over the weekend, which helped stabilize soybean and corn conditions. The Rosario Grain Exchange maintained its revised soybean and corn crop estimates at 47.5 MMT and 46 MMT, respectively, after previously cutting them due to January’s drought. Analysts stress that the coming weeks remain critical for yield development.

Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing slowly, with just 23% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday, significantly behind last year’s pace. The delays have impacted second-crop corn planting, which is only 36% complete in the Center-South region. Farmers in Mato Grosso and Goias are scrambling to plant before the optimal climate window closes. ANEC now estimates Brazil’s February soybean exports at 9.72 MMT, down from 10.1 MMT in its previous projection.

The European Union’s anti-deforestation law is facing pushback from Brazilian farmers, as the influential Aprosoja Brasil lobby has urged growers to reject contract clauses that require compliance. The EU law, set to take effect in 2026, bans imports of soy, beef, and other goods linked to deforestation. While some traders are adjusting supply chains, Brazilian farmers argue that the regulations infringe on national sovereignty.

Indonesia is exploring a 50% biodiesel blend (B50) for 2026, as part of its ongoing push to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. This policy would significantly boost demand for palm oil, potentially tightening global vegetable oil markets. The country has already increased its mandatory biodiesel blend to 40% (B40) this year, with government subsidies supporting the program.

Ukraine’s grain exports for the 2024/25 season are slightly ahead of last year, totaling 27.5 MMT. However, February shipments have slowed significantly, with a 40% decline year-over-year. Wheat exports stand at 11.5 MMT (+9% y/y), while corn shipments are down 9% y/y at 13.5 MMT. The market is monitoring logistical challenges amid geopolitical tensions.

Shipping industry leaders are urging the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to avoid supporting crop-based biofuels in its decarbonization push. Companies like Hapag-Lloyd argue that increased demand for biofuels derived from soy and palm oil could accelerate deforestation and disrupt food supply chains. The IMO aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with biofuels playing a key role in the transition away from fossil fuels.

Market Outlook

Wheat’s strength is driven by tightening Russian exports and winterkill risks, while corn’s rally is supported by strong export demand and concerns over Brazil’s second crop planting delays. Soybeans face headwinds from sluggish U.S. export demand but remain supported by crude oil strength and expectations of tighter vegetable oil supplies.

With weather remaining a major factor, traders will closely watch South American precipitation patterns in the coming weeks. The USDA’s next major supply and demand update will provide further clarity on global production trends.