Wheat futures are opening the session on Friday with a rebound from Thursday's pullback. The May 2025 CBOT Wheat contract starts the day at $6.06 1/2 per bushel, after declining 11 1/4 cents in the previous session. Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat also showed losses but are stabilizing in early trade. Recent snowfall across parts of the Central Plains provided some relief for crops facing subzero temperatures earlier in the week. Texas reported a slight deterioration in crop conditions, with 33% of the state's wheat rated good-to-excellent, down 3% from last week. Export activity remains strong, with Taiwan purchasing 102,450 metric tons of U.S. wheat and Japan securing 96,160 metric tons from the U.S., Canada, and Australia.
Corn futures are trading slightly higher Friday morning, with May 2025 Corn at $5.12 1/4 per bushel, recovering 2 3/4 cents after Thursday’s drop. The market had struggled to hold the $5.00 per bushel threshold, with contracts closing between 1 to 5 cents lower on Wednesday. Traders continue to roll positions out of the March contract ahead of expiration, with open interest shifting towards deferred months. Taiwan’s purchase of 65,000 metric tons of U.S. corn helped support sentiment. Meanwhile, ethanol production data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), set for release later today, is expected to show a slight decline due to rising stockpiles and weaker processing margins.
Soybean futures are attempting to recover from Wednesday’s losses, with May 2025 Soybeans at $10.48 1/4 per bushel, up 7 1/4 cents in early trading. The soybean market had dropped 6 to 8 cents in the previous session, with open interest falling significantly due to the expiration-related exit from March contracts. Brazil’s AgroConsult revised its soybean production estimate downward by 1.1 million metric tons, now forecasting 172.4 million metric tons for the season. While this remains a record-high figure, concerns over prolonged dryness in parts of Brazil have kept traders cautious. Export sales data, delayed until Friday, will provide further insight into global demand trends.
Across the global grain market, several key developments are influencing price movements. In the fertilizer sector, Nutrien Ltd., the world’s largest fertilizer producer, has projected record nitrogen and potash sales due to strong corn planting expectations in the U.S. and Brazil. The company anticipates 93 million acres of U.S. corn planting this season, up from 90.6 million acres last year, reinforcing demand for crop nutrients. However, potential tariffs from the Trump administration on Canadian fertilizers remain a wildcard that could impact supply chains and pricing dynamics.
Weather conditions continue to play a crucial role in grain markets, particularly in South America. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported extreme heat conditions, with temperatures exceeding 35°C (95°F) across major agricultural zones. While some rainfall is expected early next week, it may not be sufficient to fully alleviate crop stress. Argentina’s soybean production estimate stands at 50.2 million metric tons, while corn output is pegged at 47.9 million metric tons, both reflecting marginal increases due to recent rainfall. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean yield forecasts remain mixed, with the Center North region expected to outperform, while persistent dryness in the Center South continues to weigh on production potential.
The French Agriculture Ministry reported a 10% year-over-year increase in soft wheat planting, with 4.57 million hectares now under cultivation. Despite the rebound, the planted area remains below historical averages, with saturated soils in some regions raising concerns about potential yield impacts. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, sunflower oil export prices have surged by $25 per metric ton due to strong global demand and limited supply, reflecting tighter oilseed markets.
Trade activity remains robust, with Jordan purchasing 60,000 metric tons of barley, while Bangladesh received offers at $295.21 per metric ton CIF liner out for a wheat tender. The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association finalized a purchase of 102,450 metric tons of U.S. milling wheat, further supporting U.S. export demand. Ethanol output remains under scrutiny, with analysts forecasting 1.078 million barrels per day in today’s EIA report, slightly below last week’s levels.
Looking ahead, South American weather will remain a focal point for the market. Forecasts indicate persistently dry conditions in Argentina, while Brazil’s weather outlook remains uncertain, with some areas expected to experience below-average rainfall. These developments will be closely monitored for their impact on crop conditions and export availability.
As traders navigate these evolving dynamics, grain markets are poised for continued volatility, with global demand, geopolitical developments, and weather conditions shaping price action.