Over the past week, the EUR/USD currency pair declined by 0.0034 to 1.0458.

U.S. WTI crude oil fell by $0.31 per barrel to $70.40 per barrel.

Oil prices declined on Friday and ended the week lower, despite improving demand prospects in the United States and China. As of February 19, global oil demand averaged 103.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.4 million barrels per day, according to JPMorgan analysts. They expect cold weather in the U.S. and increased industrial activity in China to contribute to higher demand in the coming week. Crude oil inventories in the U.S. have risen, but gasoline and distillate reserves fell last week, the Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday. The reduction in gasoline and distillate inventories, along with concerns over restricted supplies from Russia, is supporting oil prices. Expectations of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could ease sanctions on Moscow, have somewhat faded. Earlier in the week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed anger over U.S. and Russian efforts to negotiate a peace deal without Kyiv’s involvement, as well as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who blamed Ukraine for starting the conflict with Moscow. However, after a meeting with Trump’s envoy on Thursday, Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready to work swiftly on an investment and security agreement with the U.S. On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Russia could receive some relief from American sanctions depending on its willingness to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

For the past week, May SRW wheat futures in Chicago declined by 9 1/2 cents to close at $6.04 per bushel.

May corn futures in Chicago dropped by 3 3/4 cents to close at $5.05 per bushel.

May soybean futures in Chicago rose by 4 1/2 cents to close at $10.57 1/4 per bushel.

Accumulated US export sales for the week ending February 13.

*Source: USDA

Weather:

Over the past week, the U.S. experienced extremely cold weather, with some wheat crops lacking stable snow cover. Russia also saw cold conditions, with little to no snow cover in many regions. Heavy snowfall on the Balkans protected crops from frost damage. Rainfall intensity significantly decreased in Brazil, while in Argentina, precipitation stopped, and temperatures rose sharply.

Over the next 10 days, warm and dry conditions will dominate the U.S. Corn Belt, with rainfall expected only in the northernmost states. The Wheat Belt will experience very warm temperatures, with rain expected by the end of next week. Western Europe will see warm conditions, with rainfall concentrated around France, while Hungary and Poland will have minimal precipitation. The Balkans will experience warm, dry weather. Ukraine will see moderate temperatures with almost no rainfall. Russia will warm up across the European part, with slight positive temperatures and light snow. India and China will have warm, dry weather. Indonesia and Malaysia will receive good rainfall. Australia will be warm, with precipitation only in the eastern regions. In Brazil, rain will continue but not in excessive amounts. Argentina will experience heavy and prolonged rainfall across the country, eliminating previous drought risks.

In the Northern Hemisphere, temperatures are rising with precipitation. Any winterkill damage to crops will be evident at harvest. In South America, rainfall is widespread and beneficial.

GRAIN EXPORTS:

* US (September- August)  /  * Russia, Ukraine and the EU (July- June)

U.S. wheat and soybean exports remained subdued, while corn exports were strong. Weekly export sales for U.S. wheat and corn were solid, whereas soybean sales were weak. EU wheat exports continued at a slow pace without notable change. Russian wheat exports reached approximately 550,000 metric tons for the week. Ukrainian wheat exports declined, but corn exports increased.

The International Grains Council (IGC) released its February report on global grain supply and demand for the 2024/25 season, highlighting key developments.

IGC  -  February 2024

The balance remains largely unchanged from January, when significant adjustments were made. Global wheat and corn stocks continue to decline, while soybean inventories are rapidly increasing.

On Friday, U.S. stock markets declined due to concerns over high inflation and the prospect of central banks maintaining high interest rates indefinitely.

Wheat

On Friday, wheat futures in Chicago rose, while prices in Paris declined. For the week ending February 13, 2025, U.S. wheat export sales totaled 532,674 metric tons (compared to 569,561 metric tons the previous week and 233,521 metric tons a year earlier). Total export commitments reached 19.69 million metric tons (up from 17.82 million), with weekly shipments at 232,677 metric tons (compared to 577,254 metric tons and 373,056 metric tons in previous periods). Total exports since the beginning of the season amounted to 14.42 million metric tons (up from 11.85 million). Export commitments account for 86% of the USDA's annual forecast, compared to the historical average of 94%. Next week, the USDA will release projections for U.S. wheat acreage, expected to be around 46.7 million acres. According to FranceAgriMer, as of February 17, 2024, 74% of France’s soft wheat crop was rated in good or excellent condition, up from 69% a year ago.

Wheat and corn stocks in China are at their lowest levels in the past decade. However, authorities are restricting imports to stabilize domestic prices and ensure profitability for farmers. The USDA projects China’s wheat imports in 2024/25 at 8 million metric tons, a 32% decline from 2023/24, while corn imports are expected to drop by 57% to 10 million metric tons.

Corn

On Friday, corn futures in both Chicago and Paris declined. Traders overlooked strong U.S. weekly export sales and instead focused on expectations of increased corn acreage in the U.S. in 2025 and the potential for a large crop. U.S. weekly corn export sales reached 1,453,810 metric tons (compared to 1,648,982 metric tons the previous week and 820,419 metric tons a year earlier). Total export commitments were 47.87 million metric tons (up from 37.04 million), with weekly shipments at 1,606,185 metric tons (compared to 1,354,341 and 1,024,525 metric tons). Since the start of the season, U.S. corn exports have totaled 25.25 million metric tons (compared to 18.98 million). The new U.S. administration has confirmed it will continue policies supporting domestic ethanol production and E15 gasoline, aligning with farmers' interests.

The USDA will soon release its first estimate of U.S. corn acreage for the 2025/26 season. Expectations are for 93.5 million acres, with a range of 92 to 95.1 million acres (compared to 90.6 million acres in 2024/25). With an average yield of 180 bushels per acre, total production could reach a record 391 million metric tons. However, even at this level, stock levels are not expected to increase significantly due to strong demand. If acreage expands to 95 million acres with a yield of 182 bushels per acre, production could rise to 402 million metric tons. CoBank forecasts U.S. corn acreage at 94.55 million acres. If acreage expands by only 2 million acres, stock levels will not increase even with trendline yields due to high demand. More accurate demand projections will be possible once March 31, 2025, stock data is available.

Planting of Brazil’s second corn crop is behind schedule. While progress has reached average levels for the season, overall plantings are still considered late. The developing La Niña weather pattern, which is not weakening as quickly as expected, could shorten the wet season by 1–2 weeks. Many corn fields may not complete the pollination phase, which could impact yields. Without rainfall, temperatures could quickly reach 40°C (104°F), leading to rapid evaporation of moisture and reduced yields. A weak Brazilian corn crop would push global prices higher amid tight global supplies.

Soybeans

On Friday, soybean futures in Chicago and rapeseed futures in Paris declined. The current canola crop in Canada decreased, while the forecast for the next crop increased. Despite expectations of reduced U.S. soybean acreage in 2025, prices fell as the market reacted to the arrival of Brazil’s new crop and rising global stock projections. Rainfall in Argentina is also signaling a strong crop.

U.S. weekly soybean export sales reached 480,278 metric tons (compared to 185,502 and 55,919 metric tons in previous weeks). Total export commitments reached 43.74 million metric tons (compared to 40.09 million). Weekly shipments totaled 740,986 metric tons (compared to 1,101,411 and 1,197,121 metric tons), bringing total exports for the season to 36.04 million metric tons (compared to 31.40 million). Soymeal sales for the week totaled 316,907 metric tons, while soyoil sales were 19,408 metric tons.

The USDA is expected to forecast U.S. soybean acreage for the next season at 84.4 million acres (within a range of 83.1 to 86.5 million acres), down 2.7 million acres from last year. With a yield of 51 bushels per acre, total production is projected at 116.5 million metric tons, a neutral level for prices. CoBank projects U.S. soybean acreage at 84 million acres.

In Brazil, the agribusiness association Abiove is challenging a new law in court that imposes a 1.8% export tax on soybean shipments. Although the tax rate is initially low, it could increase over time. Brazil’s neighboring country, Argentina, serves as an example, where soybean export taxes are around 30%.

Indian refineries have canceled orders for 100,000 metric tons of crude palm oil (CPO) scheduled for delivery between March and June due to rising benchmark Malaysian prices and negative refining margins in India. Export prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil rose by $25 per ton over the past week to between $1,110 and $1,120 per ton CPT, according to APK-Inform, due to strong demand and limited supply.

Last week, Brazil’s soybean harvest and second corn crop planting gained momentum. Commstock Investments reported that Brazilian soybean prices have fallen below production costs. The cost of production is estimated at $520 per acre, while market prices are around $8.30 per bushel. With an average yield of 55 bushels per acre, farmers are losing about $63 per acre. At this point, soybean planting in Brazil is an unprofitable activity. Farmers are holding onto their crops in hopes of a price increase, but whether this strategy will work remains uncertain. If prices do not improve, Brazilian farmers may reduce soybean acreage in favor of corn, cotton, and other crops. U.S. soybean acreage is also expected to decline, which could help balance the market and prevent excessive stock growth.

Production of renewable diesel fuel in the United States, intended to combat climate change, dropped sharply last month due to ongoing uncertainty in Washington’s biofuels policy. Diesel fuel made from sustainable materials such as soybeans, used cooking oil, and animal fats declined by 43% in January compared to the previous month, marking the largest drop in at least four years.

Changes in FOB prices of major exporters in recent days:

FOB prices for most grains trended lower over the past week.

Wheat – FOB wheat prices declined slightly, breaking a one-month uptrend. Bulgarian wheat prices remained unchanged at 246 USD/ton for the week (+$2/ton the previous week). Australian milling wheat rose to 239 USD/ton (+$2 for the week and +$4 the previous week), while 10% protein wheat reached 235 USD/ton (+$2 this week and +$5 the previous week). Australian feed wheat increased to 206 USD/ton (from $204 last week). Australian wheat prices have now risen for the third consecutive week, indicating a stable global uptrend.

Corn – FOB corn prices were mixed. Brazilian corn increased by 3 USD/ton to 241 USD/ton (+$4 the previous week).

Soybeans – FOB soybean prices in the United States and Argentina rose. Brazilian soybean prices increased by 9 USD/ton (unchanged the previous week) to 397 USD/ton. The price gap between U.S. and Brazilian soybeans narrowed significantly to 18 USD/ton (from $23 last week and $25 two weeks ago).

Vegetable oil prices mostly increased worldwide last week.

Export prices Black Sea, USD/mt (compared to the previous week):