Wheat futures started the day lower across all three U.S. wheat markets, with Chicago soft red winter (SRW) wheat for May 2025 trading at $6.04 per bushel, down 9 3/4 cents. Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) wheat also saw declines, with May contracts down 8 3/4 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat (HRS) was down 8 1/2 cents. The latest U.S. wheat export sales report indicated an increase in weekly sales to 532,674 metric tons, yet commitments remain below the average seasonal pace. Managed money funds continued covering short positions in SRW and HRW, but overall sentiment remains cautious as traders await updated USDA acreage estimates.
Corn futures also opened lower, with May 2025 corn at $5.05 per bushel, down 4 1/2 cents. The market has been pressured by strong weekly U.S. corn exports, which totaled 1.45 million metric tons last week, yet concerns remain about increasing global supply. Brazil’s second corn crop is now 64% planted, in line with historical averages, though weather uncertainties persist. The USDA is set to release initial 2025 corn acreage estimates, with expectations at 93.5 million acres—an increase from last year’s 90.6 million acres.
Soybeans were also weaker in early Monday trading, with May 2025 contracts down 2 3/4 cents to $10.57 1/4 per bushel. Soybean meal and soybean oil futures followed suit, with losses of $1.80 per ton and 0.37 cents per pound, respectively. U.S. soybean export sales improved last week to 480,278 metric tons, with China remaining the top buyer. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean harvest is 39% complete, and analysts have trimmed production estimates to 168.2 million metric tons, down 2.8 million metric tons from prior projections.
U.S. grain exports showed mixed trends last week. Corn exports remained robust, with commitments reaching 77% of the USDA’s annual projection, aided by steady demand from Mexico. Wheat export sales rose to 532,674 metric tons, with Mexico being the largest buyer. However, the overall pace of wheat shipments remains below historical averages. Soybean sales showed some improvement, with China purchasing 101,000 metric tons, though total export commitments still lag behind previous years.
In South America, Brazil’s second corn crop is now 64% planted, aligning with historical averages. While the initial planting delays raised concerns, progress has improved in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Argentina’s soybean crop has seen better-than-expected recovery after weeks of much-needed rainfall, stabilizing yield expectations.
The European grain market continues to struggle with weak export demand. EU wheat exports have failed to gain momentum, while Russian wheat shipments remain steady at around 550,000 metric tons per week. In Ukraine, wheat exports have slowed, but corn shipments are increasing as logistical conditions improve.
India's edible oil market is witnessing a shift, with palm oil imports expected to decline in favor of soyoil and sunflower oil. The premium on palm oil due to supply disruptions in Malaysia and Indonesia has led refiners to seek alternative sources, potentially boosting demand for U.S. and South American vegetable oils.
China's new agricultural policy aims to boost domestic grain production and farmer incomes while ensuring food security. The government is expected to provide additional subsidies to corn and soybean farmers and strengthen rural financing programs. Additionally, China has imposed restrictions on foreign ownership of rural land, which may impact future investment in the sector.
Weather developments remain a focal point for traders. The U.S. winter wheat belt is expected to experience a mix of warm and wet conditions, which could aid crop emergence from dormancy. In South America, rainfall across Argentina has significantly improved soil moisture conditions, reducing concerns over potential yield losses. However, in Brazil, persistent dryness in some regions continues to be a concern.
Policy changes in the U.S. energy sector are affecting biofuel markets. The Trump administration confirmed that an April 28 policy shift will allow both E10 and E15 ethanol blends to use the same raw gasoline blendstock, a move intended to boost ethanol consumption. This decision is expected to support U.S. corn demand, despite opposition from the oil industry regarding potential fuel supply disruptions.
Market participants are also closely monitoring upcoming USDA estimates for 2025 crop planting. Analysts forecast an increase in U.S. corn acreage to 93.5 million acres, up from 90.6 million acres last year. Soybean planting is expected to decline to 84.4 million acres, reflecting a shift in farmer preferences due to lower profit margins. Wheat acreage is projected at 46.7 million acres, slightly above last year’s level.
With global trade flows, weather patterns, and policy changes shaping the grain markets, traders remain on alert for any developments that could drive price volatility in the coming weeks.