Wheat prices started Monday’s session with May 2025 CBOT Wheat contracts opening at $5.51 ¼ per bushel, reflecting a slight decline of 2 ¾ cents but seeing an increase of 9 ¾ cents shortly after. The wheat market remains under pressure amid concerns over Russia’s potential export restrictions and fluctuating demand in key importing regions.

Corn futures opened the day at $4.69 ¼ per bushel for the May 2025 contract, rising 5 ¼ cents from the previous close, with current movement indicating an additional 3 ¾ cent gain. The strength in the corn market is partly attributed to rising export demand and speculative positioning ahead of upcoming USDA reports.

Soybeans started the session with May 2025 contracts at $10.25 per bushel, down 2 ¼ cents, with a further 1 cent decline in early trading. The soybean market has been impacted by shifting demand from China, where buyers are increasing purchases from Brazil due to ongoing trade tensions with the United States.

Key Market Drivers and Headlines Impacting Today’s Trading

The global grain market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to a combination of supply chain shifts, policy changes, and unpredictable weather patterns. Below are the major headlines driving today’s trading session:

Russia has signaled that it may impose grain export restrictions if the 2025 harvest falls short of expectations. A dry spell last autumn threatened planting, and the 2024 harvest was already below recent peaks, tightening stockpiles. Analysts warn that the 2025/26 season may begin with the lowest global stockpiles in nine years, adding bullish pressure to wheat futures.

Futures markets saw overnight movements with wheat prices rising across all categories: SRW up 7 cents, HRW up 6 ½ cents, and HRS up 4 cents. However, corn futures dipped slightly, while soybeans remained under pressure. The wheat rally comes despite Chicago wheat trading 1.4% lower last Friday, as traders react to potential supply disruptions from Russia.

In China, the government has announced new retaliatory tariffs on imports of rapeseed oil, pork, and seafood from Canada. The measures, which include a 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and 25% duties on pork, are set to take effect on March 20. These tariffs are in response to Canada’s 100% levy on Chinese electric cars and other trade restrictions. The ongoing trade war between China and its key partners could create ripple effects in the grain market as China adjusts its import strategies.

Brazil’s soybean export premiums have surged 70% this week due to rising demand from China. The trade war between the U.S. and China has intensified, leading Chinese buyers to turn to Brazil for soybean supplies. At Paranaguá port, the soybean export premium reached 85 cents per bushel for March shipment, the highest since 2022.

Heavy rains in Argentina have improved soybean and corn crop conditions, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. More than half of the second soybean crop is entering a crucial development stage with optimal moisture, which could help offset earlier drought and heat-related losses. The exchange has maintained its soy production estimate at 49.6 million metric tons and corn at 49 million metric tons.

Brazil’s grain lobby has secured a temporary court order suspending the 1.8% export tax imposed by the state of Maranhão on grain exports. The decision will be in effect while the court considers the legality of the tax, with a final ruling expected in the coming weeks.

A sharp increase in Malaysian palm oil prices has been recorded as stockpiles dropped less than expected last month. Inventories declined 4.3% in February, the lowest since April 2023, but still higher than analysts had forecast. The unexpected resilience in palm oil production could impact global vegetable oil markets, including soy oil demand.

U.S. futures market open interest changes on March 7 revealed significant movements, with SRW Wheat up 2,260 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,387, Corn up 698, and Soybeans down 6,596. The soybean market saw the biggest shift, as speculative traders exited positions amid trade war uncertainty.

The Russian wheat export duty is set to rise 12.2% to 2,444.4 rubles per tonne from March 12. This follows rising global wheat prices and ongoing domestic supply concerns. Duties on barley and corn exports are also increasing, with the new rates effective until March 18.

Brazil’s soybean sales for the 2024/25 season have reached 42.4%, up from 36.6% last year, according to consulting firm Safras & Mercado. The fast pace of sales reflects strong demand and growing preference from Chinese buyers amid the U.S.-China trade dispute.

A massive storm system is expected to impact the U.S. Midwest, Central, and Southern Plains later this week, potentially bringing severe weather, heavy precipitation, and strong winds. Drought remains a concern in key grain-producing states, and any significant rainfall could provide much-needed soil moisture ahead of the planting season.

Brazilian grain trader Agribrasil is in discussions with potential investors for a strategic stake in the company. Among the interested parties are Solaris Commodities, based in Dubai, and the Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC). If a deal materializes, it could strengthen Agribrasil’s position in global grain exports.

Today’s trading session is shaped by several major factors, including Russia’s possible export restrictions, surging Brazilian soybean premiums, and ongoing trade tensions involving China, Canada, and the United States. Additionally, weather developments in Argentina and the U.S. Midwest are critical elements impacting market sentiment. Traders remain focused on upcoming USDA reports, which could provide further clarity on supply forecasts and demand projections for the rest of the season.