Wheat opened Tuesday’s session in Chicago with the May 2025 contract priced at $5.62 ½ per bushel, experiencing a slight decline of 4 ½ cents after strong gains on Monday. The wheat market had been in rally mode earlier, with Chicago SRW futures rising 11 to 12 cents, Kansas City HRW gaining 13 to 15 cents, and MPLS spring wheat increasing 11 to 12 cents. However, downward pressure returned early in the session as traders awaited key market reports.

Corn began the day on a more positive note, with May 2025 contracts opening at $4.72 per bushel, up 2 ½ cents. On Monday, corn had closed 2 ¾ cents higher, driven by strong U.S. export figures and pre-report positioning. Japan and Mexico remained the largest importers of U.S. corn, contributing to a 33 percent increase in exports compared to the same time last year.

Soybeans saw a slight recovery after Monday’s losses, with May 2025 contracts opening at $10.14 per bushel, gaining 4 ½ cents. The soybean market had faced downward pressure due to weakness in soy oil prices, which had been dragged down by China’s decision to impose tariffs on Canadian agricultural goods. Despite this, U.S. soybean exports remained strong, with shipments to China, Indonesia, and Germany increasing.

Global trade policies continue to shape the agricultural markets, with uncertainty surrounding the effects of the latest tariffs. Donald Trump’s recent trade actions, including a 25 percent tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada and a 20 percent tariff on Chinese imports, have triggered retaliatory measures. China has reduced its corn imports from the U.S. and is increasing purchases from Brazil, while also imposing a 100 percent duty on Canadian rapeseed oil. These shifts are creating volatility in grain and oilseed markets.

The release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today is a focal point for traders. Analysts expect only minor changes to U.S. stock projections but are closely monitoring global supply trends. The report is expected to show a reduction of 24 million bushels in U.S. corn carryout and a slight increase in world soybean stocks.

U.S. wheat export inspections have significantly declined, with only 216,713 metric tons shipped last week, marking a 44.65 percent drop from the previous week. With Russia ramping up its wheat exports, U.S. wheat continues to face competition in global markets. Meanwhile, Argentina’s grain shipments have been disrupted by severe flooding in Bahia Blanca, one of the country’s largest grain ports. The temporary shutdown has impacted wheat, corn, and soybean exports. While operations are expected to normalize soon, the delays could temporarily tighten global supply.

Weather patterns are also playing a crucial role in market movements. In North America, warm temperatures are expected across most of the U.S., potentially accelerating planting schedules in the Midwest. In South America, Brazil’s soybean harvest is now 61 percent complete, but hot and dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul are reducing yields. Argentina has experienced heavy rainfall, which has delayed corn harvesting but is improving conditions for the upcoming wheat planting season.

Russia has overtaken the U.S. in wheat exports to China for the first time, shipping 275,000 metric tons in the past eight months. China’s overall wheat imports have declined due to a record domestic harvest, but Russia and Canada remain its primary suppliers.

Brazil is making moves to expand its grain stockpiles in an effort to curb food inflation. The Brazilian government’s decision to boost food reserves marks a shift in policy that could influence domestic grain pricing and global supply levels, particularly for corn and soybeans.

India’s edible oil imports have fallen to their lowest level in four years, tightening inventories. A decline in soyoil and sunflower oil imports has left the country with dwindling stocks, potentially forcing India to ramp up purchases in the coming months. This could provide support for Malaysian palm oil prices and U.S. soyoil futures.

India is also expected to harvest a record 115.43 million metric tons of wheat this year. With a bumper crop on the horizon, the country’s need for wheat imports could decrease, impacting global trade flows. At the same time, the European Union’s wheat production forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to 137.2 million metric tons due to lower-than-expected plantings in France and the UK.

In Paraguay, soybean output is expected to decline following a record harvest last year. The country is projected to produce 9.5 million metric tons of soybeans this season, a drop from the 11 million metric tons recorded in 2024. Farmers are delaying sales in hopes of better price signals.

Malaysian palm oil prices fell 11 ringgit overnight, reflecting concerns over weak demand from India and increased competition from alternative edible oils.

With trade policies shifting, supply disruptions continuing, and key weather patterns influencing harvests, today’s WASDE report will provide critical insights into the direction of the grain markets. As traders analyze global trends and market fundamentals, volatility is expected to persist throughout today’s trading session.