Wheat prices ended lower across the three major exchanges, with Chicago SRW futures dropping 4 to 6 cents, Kansas City HRW down by 6 to 7 cents, and Minneapolis HRS futures losing 7 to 8 cents. The downward movement reflected increased expectations of additional wheat supply entering the market before the marketing year ends. The USDA's latest WASDE report revised U.S. wheat ending stocks upward by 25 million bushels due to higher imports and reduced exports. On the global stage, Australian wheat production was increased to 34.1 million metric tons, while Ukraine and China saw adjustments to their stock levels. The European Union's wheat production outlook for 2025 was lowered to 137.2 million metric tons, reflecting reduced planting areas in France and the UK.

Corn futures struggled to hold onto early gains and closed marginally lower, with losses ranging from fractionally to 3 cents. The USDA’s balance sheet remained unchanged, with U.S. carryout projected at 1.54 billion bushels, exceeding expectations that anticipated a slight reduction. Global corn production estimates remained steady, with Argentina at 50 million metric tons and Brazil at 126 million metric tons. However, Brazil’s previous-year corn production was revised downward by 3 million metric tons, leading to a reduction in global ending stocks. Brazil’s exports were also trimmed by 2 million metric tons, while domestic consumption saw an increase. Overnight, a South Korean importer purchased 133,000 metric tons of corn, reflecting continued international demand.

Soybean futures followed a similar trend, closing 1 to 3 cents lower. The USDA’s report left U.S. soybean carryout unchanged at 380 million bushels, though the national cash average price was reduced by 15 cents to $9.95. Global soybean ending stocks were cut by 2.93 million metric tons, largely driven by a 2 million metric ton increase in China’s crushing demand. Brazil’s March soybean export forecast rose to 15.45 million metric tons, exceeding earlier projections. Meanwhile, potential labor strikes at Argentine oilseed processing plants could disrupt near-term shipments.

Closing Prices for March 11, 2025:

May 2025 CBOT Wheat: $5.56 ¾ (-5 ¾ cents)

May 2025 Corn: $4.70 ¼ (-1 ¾ cents)

May 2025 Soybeans: $10.11 ¼ (-2 ¾ cents)

Trade Policies and Weather Disruptions Shape the Market

The USDA’s latest crop report accounted for the ongoing trade tariffs that continue to influence global supply and demand forecasts. Markets remain highly sensitive to shifting trade policies, especially as former U.S. President Donald Trump has implemented a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, though a temporary reprieve is in place until April 2. Meanwhile, tariffs on China were doubled to 20%, prompting Beijing to retaliate with countermeasures, further disrupting agricultural trade flows.

China’s corn imports from the U.S. are projected to decline as trade tensions escalate. While the U.S. accounted for 15% of China’s total corn imports, China is diversifying its supply by purchasing more from Brazil. The impact on global corn prices remains uncertain, as demand from China’s feed and processing sectors continues to support overall market stability.

Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing, with 61% of the planted area completed, up from 55% at the same time last year. Despite strong progress, concerns remain over crop conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, where persistent hot and dry weather is lowering yields. Analysts have revised Brazil’s total soybean production estimate down to 168.2 million metric tons, reflecting these regional challenges.

In Argentina, excessive rainfall in key agricultural regions is causing delays in corn harvesting while benefiting soybean development. Wet weather in the northwest Pampas is expected to persist, potentially impacting the overall supply outlook. Meanwhile, recent storms in Bahia Blanca temporarily shut down a major Argentine grain export terminal, disrupting logistics for grain shipments. Operations at the port are resuming, with full activity expected shortly.

India’s edible oil imports dropped to a four-year low in February, depleting stock levels to their lowest point in three years. The decline in imports of soybean and sunflower oil is likely to increase demand for Malaysian palm oil and U.S. soyoil in the coming months, potentially supporting higher prices.

Russia has overtaken the U.S. as a wheat supplier to China, exporting 275,000 metric tons in the first eight months of the agricultural year. China’s overall wheat imports have declined this season due to record domestic production, reducing its reliance on U.S. supplies.

Forecasts and Policy Shifts Drive Uncertainty in Global Supply

The European Union’s wheat production outlook for 2025 was revised lower, with estimates now at 137.2 million metric tons, down from earlier projections of 140.4 million metric tons. The reduction is attributed to smaller-than-expected planted areas in France and the UK.

India’s wheat production is expected to reach a record high of 115.43 million metric tons, ensuring stable domestic supply despite fluctuations in global market prices. The government’s winter-sown food grain output is projected at 164.53 million metric tons, reinforcing expectations of a robust harvest season.

U.S. export inspections for the past week showed strong demand for corn and soybeans, with 1.82 million metric tons of corn and 844,000 metric tons of soybeans inspected for shipment. China remained the top destination for soybean exports, while Japan and Mexico led in corn and wheat shipments.

Argentina’s wheat outlook is improving after heavy rainfall replenished soil moisture levels in key agricultural regions. Farmers in Argentina, one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, are expected to begin planting their new crop in May, with conditions now more favorable for the upcoming growing season.

Brazil’s government is implementing policies to stabilize domestic grain supplies as food inflation rises. The crop agency Conab is seeking to adjust procurement rules to allow more flexible grain purchases, ensuring that reserves remain sufficient. The government recently reduced import tariffs on key food items in an effort to lower consumer prices, but analysts remain skeptical about the long-term effectiveness of these measures.

As the global grain market navigates trade uncertainty, shifting weather patterns, and evolving policy decisions, volatility remains a key theme. Traders and producers will be closely watching developments in trade negotiations, South American weather patterns, and ongoing USDA assessments to gauge the trajectory of prices in the coming weeks.