U.S. Grain Futures Opening Prices – Thursday, March 13, 2025

Wheat futures started Thursday with gains, recovering some of the losses from the previous session. The May 25 CBOT Wheat contract opened at $5.60 per bushel, up 6 ¼ cents. Market participants are watching Algeria’s large wheat purchase, which ranged between 500,000 to 650,000 metric tons (MT), along with shifting expectations for Canadian wheat acreage. Canada’s wheat planting is set to rise 2.6% to 27.5 million acres this year, with spring wheat accounting for most of the increase.

Corn futures opened higher after experiencing losses on Wednesday. The May 25 CBOT Corn contract opened at $4.64 ¾ per bushel, up 4 cents. Weakness in the previous session was driven by concerns over European Union retaliatory tariffs and a cut in Argentina’s corn production estimate by 1.5 million MT, bringing it to 44.5 million MT. South Korea remained an active buyer, securing 262,000 MT of corn overnight through private deals and tenders, with additional demand expected.

Soybean futures rebounded at the start of Thursday's session after closing lower on Wednesday. The May 25 CBOT Soybean contract opened at $10.11 ¾ per bushel, up 11 ¼ cents. The market remains under pressure as EU tariffs on U.S. soybeans are set to take effect in April. Additionally, the Rosario Grains Exchange reduced Argentina’s soybean crop projection by 1 million MT, bringing it down to 46.5 million MT, as recent rainfall failed to revive drought-affected crops.

Key Global Market Developments Impacting Grain Prices

Canada’s farmers are shifting away from canola as global trade tensions weigh on demand. Canola planting is expected to decline by 1.7% to 21.6 million acres, with tariffs from both China and the U.S. threatening key export markets. The new U.S. biofuels guidance (45Z) has also hurt canola demand, as it excludes the crop from carbon-scoring benefits. Canola futures have plunged 11% this week, driven by uncertainty over demand.

The European Union has introduced retaliatory tariffs in response to U.S. steel and aluminum duties. The new trade measures will impact U.S. soybean exports, specifically targeting shipments from Louisiana, a key export hub. The EU will also impose tariffs on beef from Nebraska and Kansas, further escalating the trade dispute.

The U.S. ethanol market faced a setback as weekly ethanol production declined by 31,000 barrels per day (bpd), bringing total output to 1.062 million bpd. Stocks of ethanol increased slightly to 27.376 million barrels, with a record-high 11.537 million barrels stored in the Midwest. The slowdown in ethanol demand adds pressure to U.S. corn prices.

The Black Sea region remains unstable, with Ukraine reporting a 4.5% decline in total grain exports this season compared to last year. Corn exports have fallen 9% year-over-year, while wheat shipments are up 3%. A missile attack on the Odesa port damaged grain facilities and killed four Syrian sailors, raising concerns about ongoing supply chain disruptions. Ukrainian officials claim that Russia aims to restrict Ukrainian grain exports while expanding its own market share.

Argentina’s soybean and corn production outlook has worsened, with the Rosario Board of Trade slashing projections for both crops. Soybean output is now estimated at 46.5 million MT, while corn production is forecast at 44.5 million MT. Prolonged dry conditions in key growing regions have taken a toll on yields.

China is preparing for record soybean imports in the second quarter of 2025, with arrivals projected at 31.3 million MT, a 4.6% increase from last year. Delayed Brazilian shipments and supply constraints have caused Chinese processors to halt operations, contributing to tighter supplies. Recent retaliatory tariffs between the U.S. and China have also influenced soybean trade flows.

France’s wheat export forecast has been revised downward by 1.7%, with total exports now projected at 9.58 million MT for the 2024-25 season. The decline is mainly due to a 6% drop in non-EU wheat sales, marking a 69% decline compared to last year. France is also expected to hold larger stockpiles, increasing from 2.81 million MT to 2.91 million MT.

Ukraine’s grain corridor operations remain under threat as Russian strikes intensify. The Odesa port attack marks the latest in a series of incidents, with Ukrainian officials reporting at least 113 Russian attacks on port and agricultural infrastructure over the past year. Despite these challenges, Ukraine has managed to export 93.3 million MT of cargo since re-establishing the Black Sea corridor in late 2023.

The Argentina oilseed worker strike was called off after the government ordered a 15-day conciliation period, delaying labor action at soybean processing plants. However, workers at Vicentin, a bankrupt agribusiness firm, continue their strike due to unpaid wages. The disruption could affect Argentina’s soybean meal and oil exports, which are crucial for global supply chains.

Paraguay’s corn harvest is underway, with production estimates holding steady at 5.2 million MT. Recent weather conditions have favored harvest operations, but analysts are watching for potential dryness later in March that could impact yields.

China’s wheat production is on track for a record harvest, with total output forecast at 141.5 million MT. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture, supporting crop development. Despite temporary cold spells, the outlook remains stable for China’s winter wheat production.

India’s wheat production remains unchanged at 111.6 million MT, as the crop progresses through its maturation phase. Weather conditions have been mostly dry, with cooler temperatures providing relief after a period of excessive heat. India’s northern wheat-growing states, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab, are showing vegetation levels above long-term trends.

Market Outlook for the Trading Session

With trade tensions escalating, weather uncertainties persisting, and shifting export dynamics, volatility is expected to remain high in the grain markets. Traders will closely monitor the U.S. Export Sales report, which is set for release today, as well as developments in the ongoing Argentina labor dispute. Additionally, any further escalations in the Black Sea region could significantly impact wheat futures. The grain markets are poised for a volatile trading session, with global demand concerns shaping price action.