U.S. Grain Futures Opening Prices – Friday, March 14, 2025

Wheat futures began Friday’s session with slight losses after a strong rally on Thursday. The May 25 CBOT Wheat contract opened at $5.62 ½ per bushel, down 1 cent. The market had been supported by strong export sales, with the USDA reporting 783,416 metric tons (MT) in weekly wheat export bookings. Panama led purchases at 237,600 MT, while South Korea secured 160,000 MT. FranceAgriMer rated the soft wheat crop in France at 74% good-to-excellent, and Strategie Grains revised its EU wheat crop estimate slightly lower to 127.5 million MT. Despite these factors, early morning trading has seen slight price declines.

Corn futures started Friday’s session lower after posting gains on Thursday. The May 25 CBOT Corn contract opened at $4.65 ¼ per bushel, down 5 ½ cents. Thursday’s session saw a modest recovery, with front-month contracts gaining 4 to 5 cents. USDA reported corn export sales at 967,348 MT for the week ending March 6, with Mexico buying 431,600 MT and Japan purchasing 194,100 MT. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn production estimate was cut by 1.5 million MT to 44.5 million MT, while Brazil’s forecast was increased slightly to 122.8 million MT. Additional South Korean import purchases overnight, totaling 207,000 MT, provided further market support.

Soybean futures opened Friday with mixed movement, trading mostly within a penny of unchanged levels. The May 25 CBOT Soybean contract opened at $10.10 ¾ per bushel, down ¾ cent. Thursday’s gains were driven by strong USDA export sales data, showing 751,651 MT in soybean bookings, marking a seven-week high. China was the leading buyer with 208,300 MT, followed by Indonesia with 151,800 MT. Argentina’s soybean production outlook was trimmed by 1 million MT to 46.5 million MT due to ongoing drought concerns, while Brazil’s soybean estimate was increased by 1.36 million MT to 167.37 million MT.

Key Global Market Developments Impacting Grain Prices

Trade tensions between the European Union and the U.S. continue to escalate, with the EU planning tariffs on $28.2 billion worth of American goods, including soybeans. The European feed industry has raised concerns that targeting U.S. soybean imports could disrupt vital supply chains, given the region's heavy reliance on external protein sources for animal feed. China has also retaliated against U.S. tariffs by imposing levies on various agricultural products, including a complete suspension of soybean imports from three U.S. entities. These shifts are putting downward pressure on U.S. soybean export prospects while potentially strengthening Brazil’s competitive position.

The U.S. ethanol sector remains under strain as production fell by 31,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.062 million bpd. Ethanol stocks rose slightly to 27.376 million barrels, which could further weigh on corn demand in the near term. Weak ethanol consumption is already contributing to a bearish outlook for U.S. corn prices.

Weather conditions continue to play a critical role in global grain markets. In North America, heavy rainfall is expected across the Mississippi River Delta and parts of the eastern Midwest, while dry conditions persist in the Southern Plains. The drought-stricken regions of Argentina are seeing a brief reprieve with improved rainfall, but uncertainty remains about long-term recovery. Meanwhile, Europe is facing wetter-than-expected weather in the east, while dryness is expected to return soon after.

China is poised for a rapeseed meal shortage after imposing a 100% duty on imports from top supplier Canada. Futures for rapeseed meal in Zhengzhou surged over 8% following Beijing’s announcement. Analysts warn that alternative sources, including India and Russia, are unlikely to compensate for the lost Canadian supply, potentially disrupting China’s animal feed market in the third quarter of the year.

Brazil’s trade chamber approved further import tax reductions on food products to combat inflation. The government has removed import duties on key commodities, including corn, sugar, and beef. These emergency measures aim to stabilize domestic food prices and ensure sufficient supply during the ongoing economic crisis.

Vietnam is reviewing duties on U.S. agricultural goods in an effort to avoid potential reciprocal tariffs from Washington. With Vietnam maintaining a significant trade surplus with the U.S., officials are considering lifting barriers on key American exports, including liquefied natural gas and farm products. A U.S. business delegation of more than 60 companies is set to visit Vietnam later this month to discuss trade policy adjustments.

Argentina’s soybean crushing workers ended their strike after the government intervened to restart talks with biodiesel producer Explora. The work stoppage had temporarily paralyzed Argentina’s soy processing sector, which is vital to global soybean meal and oil exports. While the strike was lifted, continued negotiations are expected as workers push for job security and wage adjustments.

Heavy rainfall in Argentina’s agricultural heartland has boosted soybean yield potential. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange now expects production to reach 49.6 million MT, provided that favorable conditions persist. However, some northern farmlands still require additional moisture to ensure optimal output.

Bolivia’s agricultural sector is struggling with fuel shortages, which are threatening the ongoing soybean harvest. Farmers in the Santa Cruz region report difficulties securing diesel for farm equipment, which could result in significant crop losses. The government has attempted to address the crisis by allowing fuel purchases using cryptocurrency, but concerns remain about long-term production stability.

The global palm oil market saw a boost as Malaysian prices rose 39 ringgit overnight (+0.86%), reaching 4,578 ringgit per ton. The increase reflects sustained demand for edible oils, with China and India maintaining strong import levels. Meanwhile, Chinese agricultural futures showed mixed trends, with soymeal rising 31 yuan, soy oil up 114 yuan, and corn gaining 2 yuan.

U.S. grain markets remain volatile as traders react to shifting trade policies, supply disruptions, and uncertain weather conditions. Today’s trading session is expected to see continued fluctuations as investors assess export demand trends and global production outlooks.

Market Outlook for Today’s Trading Session

The grain markets remain highly reactive to geopolitical tensions and weather-related disruptions. Traders will focus on further updates regarding EU-U.S. trade negotiations, developments in China’s tariff policies, and any adjustments to South American production forecasts. U.S. export sales data will also be closely monitored, as international demand remains a key driver of market sentiment.

As trade dynamics shift and weather patterns fluctuate, price volatility is expected to persist, making today’s trading session a critical one for market participants.