Wheat futures began Thursday weaker after posting losses on Wednesday. The May 25 CBOT Wheat contract opened at $5.60 ½ per bushel, down 3 cents from the previous close. Kansas City HRW wheat saw the biggest declines, falling 10 to 12 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat futures dropped 2 to 4 cents. A stronger U.S. dollar index added additional pressure on wheat prices, making exports less competitive. The USDA’s weekly export sales report, set for release Thursday, is expected to show wheat sales between 300,000 and 700,000 metric tons (MT) for the old crop, while new crop sales estimates range between 25,000 and 100,000 MT. Turkey’s recent announcement of duty-free wheat imports for flour production may intensify global wheat trade competition.
Corn futures showed slight gains to start Thursday, continuing the previous session’s positive momentum. The May 25 CBOT Corn contract opened at $4.63 ¾ per bushel, up 1 ¾ cents. Wednesday’s session saw front-month contracts increase between 1 and 3 ¼ cents, while new crop December futures declined by 2 ¾ cents. Ethanol production supported the market, with the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data revealing a 43,000-barrel-per-day increase in U.S. ethanol production, reaching 1.105 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks also fell by 801,000 barrels to 26.575 million barrels, reflecting steady demand. The USDA export sales report is projected to show old crop corn sales between 0.8 and 1.7 million MT, while new crop sales estimates range from 0 to 100,000 MT. Turkey announced a 1 million MT import quota for feed corn at a reduced tariff rate, valid until the end of June.
Soybean futures opened Thursday with losses, continuing the downward trend seen in recent sessions. The May 25 CBOT Soybean contract began at $10.04 ¾ per bushel, down 3 ½ cents. Wednesday’s session ended with declines of 4 ½ cents, while soybean meal and soybean oil futures also dropped. Open interest increased significantly, signaling new selling activity. The USDA export sales report is expected to show old crop soybean sales between 0.4 and 0.9 million MT, with new crop estimates ranging from 0 to 50,000 MT. Brazil’s soybean crop estimate was revised downward by 0.8 million MT to 170.9 million MT, according to Abiove, due to potential weather-related production setbacks.
Key Global Market Developments Impacting Grain Prices
Trade policy uncertainty continues to weigh on global agricultural markets. The U.S.-China and U.S.-EU trade disputes remain at the center of discussions, with the Trump administration considering further restrictions on Chinese technology and agricultural imports. Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed tariffs on Chinese-built ships have raised concerns about increased shipping costs for U.S. agricultural exports, further disrupting trade flows.
Brazil’s agricultural sector is struggling with financial instability, as 45 agri-input companies have filed for bankruptcy protection in 2024, marking an 80% increase from the previous year. Lower grain prices, rising production costs, and supply chain disruptions have contributed to the financial strain. Agrogalaxy, one of the largest affected companies, reported total debt of BRL 9 billion ($1.58 billion), highlighting the severity of the crisis.
Weather-related concerns continue to impact grain markets. Heavy rains in Argentina’s Pampas region are expected to delay early harvests for both soybeans and corn, while cooler temperatures in the U.S. Midwest may affect winter wheat conditions. In Europe, increased precipitation raises the risk of flooding in southern regions, while dry weather persists in India’s wheat-growing areas.
Chinese corn imports have slowed to their lowest pace in seven seasons, raising doubts about Beijing’s forecast of 9 million MT for the year. China imported only 180,000 tons of corn in January and February combined, bringing total imports for the 2024/25 marketing year to 1.07 million tons. Weak domestic demand and retaliatory tariffs on U.S. corn have contributed to the decline.
In wheat markets, Russian export prices fell for the first time in a month, with SovEcon reporting a decline in bids to 17,300-17,800 rubles per metric ton. Increased supply ahead of the spring planting season has pressured prices. Meanwhile, European wheat exports remain sluggish, with total shipments reaching 14.92 million MT as of March 16, a 35% decline from the previous year.
The USDA attaché in China forecasts soybean imports at 106 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, reflecting a 2% increase year-over-year. While soybean demand is projected to slow as Chinese consumers shift toward more feed-efficient protein sources, retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans may accelerate China’s pivot toward Brazilian supplies.
Ethanol markets remain stable, with the latest EIA report showing a rise in ethanol production and a decline in stockpiles. Production reached 1.105 million barrels per day, while stocks fell to 26.575 million barrels, signaling steady biofuel demand.
Indonesia’s government announced a $487 million capital injection into state-run Agrinas Palma Nusantara, which will manage palm oil plantations seized during a corruption investigation. The move could impact global palm oil trade flows, particularly affecting Malaysian exporters. Meanwhile, Malaysia set its April crude palm oil export tax at 10%, reflecting continued high global prices.
Argentina’s corn production for the 2024/25 season was slightly raised to 48.0 million tons, as excessive rainfall that initially hampered harvest progress has started to ease. Favorable weather conditions in recent weeks have provided much-needed relief to stressed crops, allowing harvesting to resume on schedule.
Argentina’s soybean production estimate was also slightly increased to 49.6 million tons, as heavy rains subside and allow for better harvesting conditions. The USDA’s March WASDE report maintained Argentina’s soybean production at 49 million tons, while local forecasts range between 46.5 and 49.6 million tons.
The USDA has reinstated several key reports previously suspended due to budget cuts. The July cattle inventory report will be published on July 25, while county estimates for corn, soybeans, and other crops will be released in May. The reinstatement of these reports provides crucial market data for traders and analysts.
Looking ahead, grain markets are expected to remain volatile as trade tensions, weather patterns, and supply-chain disruptions continue to influence prices. Traders will closely monitor the USDA export sales report, Chinese grain import trends, and Brazilian harvest conditions to assess market direction in the coming sessions.