May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat futures opened the day at $5.58¼ per bushel, slipping 7¾ cents early in the session. Despite modest gains on Friday, the wheat complex has entered the new week with losses across all three U.S. classes — SRW, HRW, and HRS. The Southern Plains remain largely dry, with only limited rains forecast for South and Central Texas, while areas critical to HRW production such as western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle are experiencing prolonged dryness. This is compounding concerns over crop development, although heavy rains in Argentina's western Pampas are also creating risks for harvests there. Speculative positioning shows increasing bearishness in Chicago wheat, with net shorts rising by over 3,200 contracts, even as Kansas City saw some short-covering. Globally, Taiwan issued a tender for 100,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat, and Russian consultancy IKAR raised its 2025 wheat crop forecast by 1.5 MMT to 82.5 MMT.

May 2025 Corn futures opened at $4.64¼ per bushel, with early trading showing a 3-cent decline. The market is easing after ending last week with solid gains of 5¾ cents. Open interest surged by nearly 20,000 contracts on Friday, signaling renewed speculative attention, though managed money sharply reduced net long positions by 39,271 contracts in the latest reporting week. The U.S. cash corn price also edged down to $4.29¾, reflecting cautious demand. In Brazil, the second crop corn planting is nearly complete, while AgRural pegs the safrinha crop at 87.9 MMT, unchanged from their last estimate but under weather-related scrutiny. Domestic corn values in Brazil continue to show strength, with over-the-counter and wholesale markets posting weekly gains of 0.9% and 1.8%, respectively. Export performance remains robust, with shipments reaching 612,920 tons in just eight March days — already 43% higher than all of March last year.

May 2025 Soybean futures opened today at $10.09¾ per bushel, dropping 4½ cents in early trade. The week begins on a bearish note, continuing last week’s 6¼ cent decline. Cash soybean prices also eased to $9.49½. Despite strong export premiums in Brazil supporting spot market stability, overall soy prices remain under pressure due to dollar weakness and ample supply. AgRural downgraded Brazil’s crop estimate by 2.3 MMT to 165.9 MMT, though 77% of the crop is already harvested — well ahead of last year. China's state stockpiler, Sinograin, announced it will auction 160,000 metric tons of imported soybeans this week to address domestic supply shortages. Meanwhile, U.S. speculators increased net short positions to 22,005 contracts, reflecting ongoing concerns about oversupply and subdued Chinese demand. Soymeal and soyoil markets also remain weak, with limited demand pushing prices lower.

Key Global Drivers and Market Headlines

US–Russia talks are underway in Saudi Arabia, aiming for a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea to facilitate shipping routes — a move that could significantly ease grain logistics and insurance risks. This comes amid broad international skepticism over Moscow’s intentions, but President Trump has voiced cautious optimism about de-escalation. The talks also involve discussions on territorial control and verification mechanisms.

Ukraine’s spring grain sowing has reached 250,400 hectares, marking an 18% increase year-over-year. This includes a 27% increase in spring wheat and 14% in barley sowing. With growing demand and stable conditions, Ukraine's early planting figures indicate a strong start to the season and could improve overall supply confidence.

Russia is slashing its wheat export duty by 23% starting March 26, lowering it to 1,846.7 rubles per ton. Similar reductions apply to barley and corn, aimed at improving competitiveness amid flat global prices. This could make Russian wheat more attractive on global markets and add pressure to U.S. and EU exporters.

China’s Sinograin will auction off 160,000 metric tons of imported soybeans on March 25 — its first auction in two months. This comes after delayed Brazilian shipments and customs slowdowns caused several Chinese processors to halt operations. The auction will temporarily ease domestic tightness, but could coincide with a surge of Brazilian arrivals in Q2.

In Brazil, soybean harvest is 73.84% complete — ahead of the 69.33% pace from the same time last year. This fast harvest is helping stabilize export commitments, with the USDA projecting record Brazilian soybean exports of 108.3 MMT in 2024/25 and 112 MMT in 2025/26.

The USDA’s attaché in Brazil projects a soybean crop of 173 MMT in 2025/26, up from 169.5 MMT this season. Planted area is expected to expand to 48.2 million hectares, supported by global demand, attractive export margins, and continued growth in derivative markets like peanut and palm oil.

Mexico’s corn imports are projected to fall in 2025/26 due to strong local output, while wheat imports are expected to rise because of poor harvest prospects in Sonora and Sinaloa. Rising consumption from population growth is also pushing up rice imports, altering Mexico’s grain trade profile.

In India, intense thunderstorms and hailstorms are impacting wheat harvesting activities, particularly in eastern and central states like Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. This could damage yields in already vulnerable regions and may trigger short-term supply disruptions.

Brazil’s corn crop activity continues to progress at a fast clip. Harvest of the summer crop has reached 40.1%, above the 5-year average, while the second crop is 89.6% sown. This is maintaining domestic supply and pressuring prices in some producer regions.

Export premiums for Brazilian soybeans are rising due to firm demand, especially at ports. This is limiting price declines in domestic markets, though the combination of high supply and a weaker real continues to pressure overall values.

The U.S. milk sector reported a 2.6% year-on-year drop in February output, with milk per cow declining by 3.4%. This may have longer-term implications for feed grain demand, particularly for corn and soybean meal.

U.S. government officials have contacted Italian egg producers amid domestic supply shortages ahead of Easter. Though Italy exports only 10% of its production, the move highlights growing concerns about food availability and trade adjustments during key seasonal periods.