Wheat markets ended Monday lower across all three major U.S. exchanges. May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat futures closed at $5.48¼ per bushel, down 10 cents on the day. Kansas City HRW dropped 10 to 11 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 11 to 13 cents. Despite steady export flows, dryness in key U.S. states and modest demand pulled prices lower. In Kansas, winter wheat condition improved slightly to 49% good/excellent, with Texas also showing a 3% gain to 31% gd/ex. However, these improvements came amid persistent dryness. Weekly U.S. wheat exports were reported at 484,701 metric tons, 12% higher year-over-year, with the Philippines and Mexico as top buyers. Taiwan launched a tender for 100,000 MT of U.S. wheat, while Russia’s IKAR raised its 2025 wheat crop forecast to 82.5 MMT, up 1.5 MMT, adding further pressure to global price outlooks.

Corn futures finished Monday’s session with marginal gains. May 2025 Corn closed at $4.64½ per bushel, up ¼ cent. After opening weaker, contracts recovered as export momentum remained supportive. U.S. corn export inspections reached 1.463 million metric tons, a 16.6% increase over the same week last year. Top destinations included Mexico, Japan, and South Korea. Domestic cash prices nudged up to $4.29¼. In Brazil, harvest of the summer crop reached 40.1%, while 89.6% of the second crop (safrinha) has been sown. AgRural held its safrinha production forecast at 87.9 MMT, despite irregular rainfall. Overall, Brazil’s corn crop was revised up by 0.6 MMT to 121.8 MMT. Prices in Brazil remained supported by limited sales and strong domestic and export demand.

Soybean futures slipped Monday, with May 2025 Soybeans settling at $10.07¼ per bushel, down 2½ cents. The national average cash price dropped to $9.47, reflecting weaker spot market sentiment. Soymeal futures fell between $1.10 and $2.70/ton, while soyoil futures firmed by 13 to 24 points. Export inspections were strong, totaling 822,214 MT — up 25% from the previous week. China remained the top buyer at 404,561 MT. AgRural cut Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop estimate to 165.9 MMT, down 2.3 MMT from prior forecasts, citing poor field conditions. Still, 77% of the crop has been harvested, compared to 69% a year ago. Rising export premiums helped limit further price drops, though oversupply and dollar weakness kept the broader tone bearish.

Key Global Drivers and Headlines

Geopolitical negotiations between the U.S. and Russia took center stage on Monday, as talks began in Saudi Arabia focused on reaching a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea. The objective is to secure uninterrupted grain trade routes in the region. While European skepticism over Putin’s intentions remains, the U.S. delegation, led by Andrew Peek and Michael Anton, is aiming to build verification mechanisms and stabilize grain logistics in the war-affected corridor.

Ukraine’s spring grain planting reached 250,400 hectares, an 18% increase from last year. Spring barley sowing rose 14%, while spring wheat acreage jumped 27%. Strong international demand, especially for wheat, has pushed Ukraine’s total spring wheat forecast to 222,800 hectares — 28% higher year-over-year. This sets the stage for solid export potential later in the year.

Russia is slashing wheat export duties by 23% starting March 26, reducing the rate to 1,846.7 rubles/ton. Barley and corn duties were also lowered. These adjustments aim to boost competitiveness amid soft global prices, potentially putting downward pressure on U.S. and EU grain prices in global tenders.

China’s Sinograin is set to auction 160,000 MT of imported soybeans on Tuesday, March 25 — its first such sale in two months. The auction follows severe domestic shortages triggered by delayed Brazilian shipments and sluggish customs clearance. The soybeans, produced in 2022–2023, are scheduled for delivery from April 1 to May 15. Analysts expect this move to temporarily ease the supply squeeze, but timing may clash with a wave of new Brazilian arrivals in Q2.

Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 73.84% of planted area, up from 69.33% at the same point last year. According to the USDA attaché in Brazil, soybean output for 2025/26 is forecast at 173 MMT, with planted area expanding to 48.2 million hectares. Strong global demand and expanding derivative markets (peanut and palm oil) are driving growth expectations.

Mexico’s 2025/26 grain outlook reflects higher production for corn, rice, and sorghum due to better farm economics. However, wheat production is expected to fall due to drought and low reservoir levels in Sonora and Sinaloa. Wheat and rice imports are forecast to rise, while corn imports will likely drop amid rising domestic output and large carryover stocks.

Heavy thunderstorms and hailstorms in India are disrupting wheat harvest efforts across key producing states including Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. The Indian Meteorological Department warned that ongoing extreme weather could damage crops and critical infrastructure, raising concerns over yield losses in an already vulnerable region.

Brazilian corn markets remain tight as harvesting of the summer crop progresses and planting of the safrinha crop nears completion. CEPEA reported that domestic corn prices in Brazil rose 0.9% in the OTC market and 1.8% in the wholesale market between March 13–20, driven by cautious seller behavior and strong processor demand.

Export premiums for Brazilian soybeans continue to climb, supporting port prices and limiting spot market declines. CEPEA data showed that despite modest losses of 1.2% in Paranaguá and 0.1% in Paraná, elevated FOB premiums at ports are buoying market sentiment, even as oversupply and currency weakness persist.

U.S. milk production fell 2.6% year-over-year in February, with output in the 24 major producing states dropping to 16.99 billion pounds. This could have implications for feed demand, particularly for corn and soymeal, as per-cow productivity also declined by 3.4%.

U.S. officials contacted Italian egg producers amid tightening supplies ahead of Easter. Italy, which exports only 10% of its output, was approached by the U.S. for potential shipments to help alleviate domestic shortages driven by bird flu outbreaks. Similar outreach has been made to other global producers as the U.S. navigates one of its worst egg supply crises in recent years.