Wheat markets ended the day on a positive note, maintaining earlier gains supported by renewed concerns in the Black Sea region. Chicago SRW futures settled 5 cents higher, while Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat contracts saw similar gains. Increased geopolitical risks provided an incentive for short covering. According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat is 83% headed—above the seasonal average—and 3% harvested, matching last year’s pace. Spring wheat planting reached 95%, and emergence is ahead of the five-year average. Conditions improved, with 50% of the crop now rated good to excellent. Weekly export inspections showed 552,910 metric tons shipped, primarily to South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia. The CBOT July wheat contract closed at $5.39 per bushel, up 5 cents.

Corn futures closed in the red, with prices falling between 2 to 5¾ cents. Despite solid weekly export inspections totaling 1.576 million metric tons—up 11% from the previous week—the market reacted negatively to wetter forecasts across key U.S. growing regions. Crop progress data revealed that 93% of corn is now planted, matching the five-year average, with 78% emergence and 69% rated good to excellent. NOAA's 7-day precipitation outlook showed widespread rainfall likely to benefit crop development in the Plains and Eastern Corn Belt. Additionally, April grain crush data indicated 425.8 million bushels of corn used for ethanol—slightly below last month but the highest April level in six years. The July corn contract closed at $4.38¼ per bushel, down 5¾ cents.

Soybean futures faced persistent pressure, closing 7 to 10 cents lower due to a combination of favorable planting weather and weak performance in soymeal and soyoil. Planting progress reached 84%, with 63% emergence and 67% of the crop rated good to excellent. While USDA’s fats and oils report showed strong April crush totals at 202.4 million bushels—up 14% year-on-year—soyoil stocks fell 5% from March, signaling healthy demand. Export inspections for the week totaled 268,343 metric tons, with China, Bangladesh, and Mexico as the primary destinations. Brazil’s crop estimate was also raised to 169 million metric tons, aligning with USDA projections. The July soybean contract closed at $10.33½ per bushel, down 8¼ cents.

Beyond price action, several global developments are shaping sentiment across grain and oilseed markets.

India announced a significant reduction in import duties on crude edible oils, halving the basic tax to 10%. The move aims to lower domestic food inflation and protect local refiners by widening the tax gap between crude and refined oil. The decision is expected to stimulate demand for crude palm, soybean, and sunflower oil, with global price implications, especially as India remains the world’s top vegetable oil importer.

Meanwhile, the Black Sea region is grappling with reduced grain export volumes. Ukraine’s grain shipments have dropped 19% year-on-year, including a 23% decline in corn exports. In Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev acknowledged a slowdown in wheat exports this season and warned of further declines unless immediate corrective actions are taken. He pointed to high export duties, increased production costs, and the need for better infrastructure as contributing factors.

Indonesia’s biodiesel ambitions are also set to influence the market. The government’s B50 plan will require 5.3 million tons of palm oil, potentially diverting volumes from export markets. As Indonesia supplies nearly 66% of the world’s CPO, the move could drive global prices higher, even as officials maintain that exports to the U.S. and EU will not be affected.

In the U.S., weekly export sales fell sharply across all major crops. Corn sales dropped to 948,000 tons, soybeans to 179,000 tons, and wheat to 583,000 tons, with Mexico being the leading buyer for each. This decline may reflect seasonal trends or short-term logistical constraints.

Weather remains a dominant theme. Drought persists in the Northern Plains, though recent rain has slightly improved conditions. The Central and Southern Plains are expecting more scattered showers, aiding wheat filling and corn development. In the Midwest, heavy rainfall is forecast to stall in southern regions, potentially delaying planting in already wet fields.

South America continues to influence the supply outlook. Brazil’s corn crop forecast was raised to 139 million metric tons, following favorable rainfall and improved yield projections. However, in Argentina, cold and dry weather, along with widespread frosts, may delay winter wheat development. The country’s soybean and corn harvests are ongoing but mostly unaffected by frost.

In Europe, rainfall remains inconsistent. While northern areas received some moisture, parts of France and eastern regions were left dry. This uneven distribution raises concerns for summer crops and wheat nearing reproductive stages.

Australia saw some helpful rainfall in Western Australia, though eastern areas remain critically dry. Drought conditions are hindering the establishment of winter wheat and canola, and future rainfall remains uncertain.

China’s North China Plain is facing increasing crop stress. Dry weather is affecting wheat during the late season and could hamper early development of corn and soybeans. While forecasts suggest better rainfall mid-June, short-term conditions remain challenging.

Lastly, a legal dispute in Brazil could disrupt a key soy crushing asset sale. The Imcopa facilities—once eyed by Bunge and Cargill—are subject to complex litigation, raising doubts about their upcoming auction. The plants are strategically located near Parana's ports and soy production zones but face negative margins and ownership uncertainty.

Together, these developments reflect a complex global grain landscape, where regional weather, policy decisions, trade flow shifts, and legal disputes continue to shape market direction and pricing expectations.