Wheat futures for July 2025 on the Chicago Board of Trade opened Monday’s session at $5.54¾ per bushel. Market participants reacted cautiously amid ongoing harvest concerns in the Southern Plains of the U.S., softening demand trends in Europe, and strong export competition from the Black Sea region. While weekend weather brought sporadic rainfall to the central U.S., it was not enough to offset broader concerns over crop maturity delays and quality issues due to earlier excessive moisture. Russia’s export tax policy adjustments and dry weather in parts of southern Russia also remain central to pricing sentiment.
Corn futures began the day at $4.42½ per bushel, stabilizing after a volatile previous week. U.S. planting progress has caught up to seasonal averages, but traders are eyeing the potential implications of high temperatures expected this week, especially across the Corn Belt. Brazilian supply continues to pressure the market, although logistical bottlenecks and slight downward revisions in Brazil’s June export projections provide mild support. Analysts are also closely monitoring ethanol production trends and their implications for corn demand, with recent U.S. output holding steady but exports underperforming.
Soybean futures opened Monday at $10.57¼ per bushel, showing a modest uptick supported by firm domestic crush margins in the U.S. and stronger demand signals from China. However, bearish undertones persist, driven by robust competition from Brazil and uncertainty in the soybean oil segment, which continues to face price pressure from large palm oil inventories. Market focus has now turned toward crop development progress in the U.S. Midwest and whether projected rains will enhance or hinder yield potential. Argentina’s near-complete harvest also adds pressure, with above-average yields contributing to global supply.
As the new trading week kicks off, twelve major developments are shaping global sentiment and market direction.
Egypt has continued its pivot in wheat sourcing, finalizing new deals with Romania and Bulgaria in an effort to reduce reliance on Black Sea suppliers amid regional instability. This shift not only diversifies Egypt’s procurement strategy but also reflects broader concerns among MENA importers about long-term supply reliability from conflict-affected zones.
The USDA confirmed that China approved wheat and rye flour imports from Russia, an expected but significant step that bolsters Russia’s export portfolio while reducing China’s dependence on traditional Western suppliers. This approval is part of a broader Chinese effort to expand and hedge its food sourcing base, particularly for strategic crops.
Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture announced last week that the wheat export duty would remain at the reduced level of 1,023.5 rubles per ton. However, analysts are concerned that continued drought in southern growing regions could impact yields and complicate the country’s ability to sustain high export volumes through the summer months.
Brazil’s soybean export data showed 14.099 million metric tons shipped in May, marking a year-over-year increase and reinforcing the country’s dominant position in the soy complex. Despite logistical hurdles in the southern ports, Brazil has managed to maintain a competitive pace that continues to weigh on global soybean prices.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its crop production estimates, with corn forecast at 49 MMT and soybeans at 50 MMT. Yet delayed wheat sowing due to dry weather raises questions about potential reductions in Argentina’s winter crop output unless timely rains materialize in June.
U.S. ethanol production remained robust at 1.105 million barrels per day, with a two-month high in export volumes reported. While this supports corn demand, weaker global biofuel margins and high input costs may curb growth potential in the coming months, especially if crude oil prices remain under pressure.
Ukrainian grain exports surpassed 4 million tons in May, as Black Sea port activity continues to normalize. However, long-term concerns remain about the sustainability of export flows, particularly as the EU prepares to scale back duty-free quotas starting in June 2025—a move that could challenge Ukraine’s trade reliance on Europe.
Reports from Canadian growers indicate delayed spring crop development due to persistent dryness across the Prairies. While planting has concluded, soil moisture deficits continue to hamper early-stage growth, particularly in wheat and canola, raising flags for potential supply issues later in the season.
The FAO reported a 1.8% decline in global grain prices for May, citing ample South American supplies and stable U.S. production forecasts. Wheat, corn, and soybean benchmarks all recorded weekly reversals despite early-month rallies, suggesting growing resistance to upward momentum.
Shipping data from the Mississippi River corridors show an increase in grain barge volumes, even as freight rates remain subdued. This points to improved transport fluidity, supporting steady export flows from U.S. terminals ahead of peak harvest periods.
In Morocco, grain import dependency continued to grow, with over 6 million tons of wheat imported over the past 12 months. The country’s increasing reliance on France and Russia for grain underscores shifting trade patterns and vulnerability to pricing and supply shocks.
Lastly, palm oil developments in Southeast Asia added a bearish layer to the global oilseed complex. Malaysia’s end-May inventories reached 2.01 million tons amid strong production and a surge in lower-priced Indonesian imports. This inventory buildup pressured global soy oil values, indirectly capping gains for soybeans despite otherwise strong fundamentals.
The global grain market is once again caught in a web of competing factors—weather shifts, political recalibrations, and demand reconfigurations—all of which are set to shape the trading narrative in the days ahead.