Wheat

Wheat markets remained under pressure on Tuesday. The July 2025 CBOT wheat contract closed at $5.34½ per bushel, dropping another 7½ cents after early session losses. U.S. harvest progress lagged, with only 4% completed—behind the 7% five-year average. Despite a 2% improvement in condition ratings to 54% good/excellent, investor sentiment was subdued, reflected in a plunge of over 9,600 open interest contracts. Kansas City and Minneapolis futures also posted sharp declines. On the international front, SovEcon upgraded Russia’s wheat production forecast to 82.8 MMT amid favorable conditions in southern regions like Krasnodar and Stavropol. However, poor outlooks in Rostov, Russia’s top wheat-growing region, raised concerns, along with continued weakness in U.S. export inspections, which fell nearly 48% from the prior week.

Corn

Corn futures managed a modest rebound on Tuesday. The July 2025 CBOT corn contract settled at $4.38¾ per bushel, gaining 5¼ cents. This uptick followed a period of weakness, with prices earlier hitting their lowest levels since last autumn. U.S. planting is 97% complete, and crop conditions improved to 71% good/excellent. Brazil's harvest, however, showed concerning delays: only 1.9% of the second corn crop had been harvested in the Center-South region by June 5, the slowest since 2021. Mato Grosso faced the worst delays due to persistent rainfall and late sowing. On the demand side, South Korea purchased 269,000 MT of corn in overnight tenders, providing a boost to market sentiment. Meanwhile, Brazil’s ANEC revised its June corn export forecast upward to 923,401 MT, reinforcing Brazil’s growing influence on global corn flows.

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed modestly higher on Tuesday. The July 2025 CBOT contract ended at $10.57¾ per bushel, up 1¾ cents. The market remained cautiously optimistic as planting in the U.S. reached 90%, with emergence at 75% and crop conditions improving to 69% good/excellent. Weekly USDA inspections showed 547,000 tons exported, more than doubling last year’s volume for the same week. Top buyers included Mexico, Japan, and Egypt. Brazilian exports are accelerating as well, with ANEC estimating June volumes at 14.08 MMT—up 1.53 MMT from last week’s projection. Despite positive trade activity and a strong crush margin in the U.S., soybeans remain under pressure due to large South American supply and weak soy oil markets. U.S.–China trade talks in London introduced cautious hope, but uncertainty over any concrete outcomes lingers.

Key Global Grain Market Developments – June 10, 2025

Indonesia faces a significant blow to its palm oil sector following the U.S. administration’s announcement of reciprocal 32% tariffs. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) warned the move would heavily dent export competitiveness. This shock arrives amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions, including Middle East conflicts inflating oil prices and obstructing key trade routes.

Tensions between the U.S. and China remain central to market uncertainty. While trade discussions in London showed signs of optimism, there is no clarity yet on whether the outcome will restore soybean flows or relieve broader commodity tensions.

Weather concerns dominate the Americas. The U.S. Southern Plains and Southeast are facing sustained rainfall, raising fears of flooding in Kansas and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, southern Brazil contends with heavy precipitation delaying corn harvesting, and Argentina is anticipating rainfall that could both aid wheat planting and delay corn and soybean harvests.

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia reached an eight-month high in May at 1.99 million tons. Production climbed 5.1% while exports surged 26%, thanks to India’s reduced import duties. Although supply pressure persists, renewed Indian demand may provide price support.

China imported a record 13.92 MMT of soybeans in May, underlining a pivot toward Brazilian sourcing amid strained U.S. trade relations. The trend underscores China's diversification strategy in securing feedstocks.

Russia’s second upgrade to its 2025 grain harvest forecast lifted expected wheat output to 82.8 MMT, though adverse conditions in Rostov cloud the optimism. The total projected grain harvest is now at least 135 MMT, up from 125.9 MMT last year.

The USDA’s export inspection data for the week ending June 5 revealed a stark divergence: soybean and corn volumes exceeded last year’s levels, while wheat exports faltered. Mexico remained the leading destination for all three crops.

Cash corn and soybean prices saw modest increases, with national average corn at $4.15 and soybeans at $10.13. Gains came despite weak futures sentiment, driven by stronger export flows and favorable crop ratings in several U.S. states.

Brazil’s second corn crop remains the market’s wild card. Only 1.9% had been harvested as of last Thursday, per AgRural—the slowest pace in four years. Mato Grosso’s late planting and excessive moisture are behind the bottlenecks, threatening supply timelines.

The tropical cyclone watch in Southeast China has heightened. Potential impacts in the next 10 days may disrupt grain movement and sowing operations in the region, adding a new layer of volatility to Asia’s grain landscape.

In Europe and the Black Sea region, mixed weather continues. While parts of northwestern Russia may benefit from more consistent rains, the broader Black Sea grain belt remains vulnerable due to prolonged moisture deficits, especially affecting corn and wheat during key reproductive stages.

Canadian Prairie dryness remains a concern despite intermittent rains. While some regions in eastern and northern areas benefited early in the week, western drought conditions persist and continue to raise wildfire risks and challenge crop emergence.