Wheat

Wheat posted minor fluctuations on Wednesday, with July 2025 CBOT wheat closing at $5.34¼ per bushel, down just ¼ cent. Kansas City HRW wheat was virtually unchanged, while Minneapolis spring wheat futures edged up 3 to 4 cents, offering a slight lift to an otherwise quiet session. Traders are watching USDA’s Thursday report closely, expecting a modest bump in winter wheat output, led by a projected 4-million-bushel increase in the HRW crop. Meanwhile, Taiwan is tendering for 95,450 MT of U.S. wheat, but Argentine forecasts were lowered to 20.7 MMT by the Rosario Exchange, adding downward pressure to global supply expectations.

Corn

Corn futures closed slightly lower on Wednesday, despite record ethanol production figures. July 2025 corn ended at $4.37 per bushel, down 1¾ cents. U.S. ethanol production hit a record 1.12 million barrels/day, while ethanol stockpiles fell by 706,000 barrels, suggesting strong domestic usage. However, the market shrugged off these bullish signals ahead of USDA's new crop report. Traders anticipate U.S. old crop ending stocks to be trimmed by 23 million bushels. Meanwhile, Brazil’s expected corn production rose to 131.8 MMT, and Taiwan booked 65,000 MT of Brazilian corn, reinforcing the South American export momentum.

Soybeans

Soybeans took a step back on Wednesday, with July 2025 contracts closing at $10.50½ per bushel, down 7¼ cents. Cash soybean prices also dipped, with nearby contracts leading the decline. Soymeal dropped by up to $1.70/ton, while soyoil managed a modest recovery. The U.S.–China framework deal aimed at easing trade tensions brought some optimism, but tangible impacts remain limited. Forecasted rainfall across major growing areas also weighed on prices. Traders expect minimal changes in the USDA’s upcoming South American estimates, although Brazil’s export outlook remains strong with projections for 14.08 MMT of soybean shipments in June.

Key Global Grain Market Developments – June 11, 2025

Ethanol production in the U.S. reached an all-time high at 1.12 million barrels per day for the week ending June 6, even as inventories fell to 23.734 million barrels. This reflects strong domestic demand but didn’t move corn futures significantly.

Despite a bumper corn crop estimated at 5 billion bushels, Brazil is expected to consume much of it domestically due to surging demand from both feed producers and a growing corn ethanol sector. This limits its exportable surplus and tightens global supply.

The Energy Information Administration forecasted that U.S. net imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel will drop to zero and -10,000 barrels/day, respectively, in 2025 due to tax credit changes under Section 45Z. This new regulation favors domestic over imported fuels.

EU soft wheat exports have declined 33% year-over-year, totaling 19.5 million tons as of June 8. Morocco, Nigeria, and Algeria were the main buyers. Barley exports and corn imports also showed year-over-year changes, signaling shifts in regional grain flows.

The EU maintains its 2025/26 wheat production forecast at 145.3 MMT, but drought conditions persist despite recent rains in Poland, Germany, and the UK. Soil moisture levels in Germany and Poland remain at six-year lows.

Russia’s wheat output forecast remains unchanged at 80.6 MMT, with favorable weather in Central Russia offset by intensifying drought in the Southern and North Caucasian Districts. A state of emergency has been declared in drought-impacted areas of Rostov.

China’s Ministry of Agriculture reported that 74.7% of the country’s summer wheat crop has been harvested, totaling 260 million mu. This rapid harvest pace supports domestic food security and price stability.

Brazil’s soybean and soymeal exports are expected to surge in June, with 14.08 MMT of soybeans and 2.07 MMT of soymeal forecast for shipment. Abiove maintained its full-season production and crushing estimates, signaling strong supply fundamentals.

Palm oil prices are expected to stabilize between 3,800–4,200 ringgit/ton over the next six months. China and India are set to ramp up imports due to narrowing price gaps, although EU demand may remain limited due to palm’s recent premium pricing.

In China, authorities are actively guiding pig farmers to reduce supply in an effort to curb falling pork prices and deflation. This move may reduce soybean and feed grain demand, indirectly affecting U.S. and Brazilian exporters.

Bloomberg surveys suggest slight adjustments in U.S. soybean ending stocks ahead of USDA’s Thursday report, with old crop carryout seen at 353 million bushels and new crop at 298 million. South American figures are expected to remain mostly stable.

The broader commodity market remains alert to geopolitical shifts. The U.S.–China framework agreement has cooled tensions but lacks concrete trade actions. Markets remain cautiously optimistic about long-term improvements in bilateral relations.