Wheat

Wheat markets opened Thursday with moderate strength following mixed movements the day prior. The July 2025 CBOT wheat contract began trading at $5.34¼ per bushel, up 1¾ cents in early Thursday activity after closing ¼ cent lower on Wednesday. Kansas City HRW wheat remained virtually flat midweek, while Minneapolis spring wheat edged higher by 3 to 4 cents, suggesting localized resilience. Global sentiment was shaped by Taiwan’s tender for 95,450 MT of U.S. wheat and a revised, lower estimate for Argentina’s wheat harvest, now at 20.7 MMT. Meanwhile, Coceral raised the EU and UK production outlook to 143.1 MMT, showing upward momentum in Europe. U.S. production remains stable with 2025/26 output forecast at 53.4 million tons—slightly lower than earlier projections due to spring wheat belt dryness.

Corn

Corn began Thursday trading at $4.37 per bushel, up 2½ cents, after slipping 1¾ cents on Wednesday. The week’s highlight came from U.S. ethanol production, which surged to a record 1.12 million barrels per day. Despite the bullish biofuel data, futures were tepid, suggesting traders are more focused on USDA’s upcoming supply report. Analysts anticipate a cut in U.S. old crop ending stocks by 23 million bushels and are watching Brazil closely, where CONAB raised corn estimates to 128.25 MMT. Taiwan’s recent 65,000 MT corn purchase underlined South America’s increasing export traction. Weather remains a wild card, especially in the U.S. Corn Belt and Central Plains, where spotty rainfall and persistent drought still influence expectations.

Soybeans

Soybeans opened Thursday at $10.50½ per bushel, down ½ cent, after closing 7¼ cents lower the previous day. Market pressure came from weak cash prices and declining soymeal values, though soyoil showed marginal recovery. The USDA’s upcoming export and stock data are expected to show only minor adjustments, with Brazil’s new crop estimate ticking up to 169.6 MMT. A cooling of U.S.-China tensions offered a brief sentiment lift, though no concrete trade deal has emerged. Weather forecasts indicate significant precipitation across U.S. soybean regions, which could impact yields and harvest timelines.

Global Grain Market Headlines – Key Developments Influencing Today’s Trade

U.S. ethanol output hit a record high at 1.12 million barrels/day, underscoring strong domestic biofuel demand as summer travel picks up. The Department of Energy also reported a significant stock draw of 706,000 barrels, supporting ethanol margins and refiner activity.

Despite a record corn crop, Brazil is expected to retain much of its production domestically due to rising demand from feed and ethanol producers. This will reduce export availability, tightening global supply chains.

In India, palm oil imports surged 84% month-over-month, reaching the highest level since November 2024. This spike came as refiners responded to low inventory and favorable pricing, boosting imports of soyoil and sunflower oil as well. The government has halved import duties on crude edible oils to 10%, pushing producers to pass savings to consumers.

Trump’s renewed tariff threats are rattling global trade sentiment. He announced intentions to send letters to multiple countries within two weeks setting new unilateral tariff rates. Although historically such deadlines have shifted, markets remain cautious as the July 9 implementation deadline approaches.

The U.S. spring wheat belt remains dry, slightly lowering national production estimates to 53.4 million tons. Soil moisture deficits persist in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, although late-week rains could help mitigate some of the risk.

Ukraine’s grain exports have declined 19% year-over-year, totaling 39.3 million tons in the season ending this month. Corn exports fell 23%, wheat 15%, and barley 5%, highlighting logistical challenges and market disruption amid ongoing conflict.

In Argentina, floods reduced wheat planting area projections, prompting Rosario Exchange to cut 2025/26 wheat estimates to 20.7 MMT, down from 21 MMT. Conversely, dry conditions support harvest progress for corn and soybeans.

EU grain production forecasts improved, with Coceral raising estimates due to favorable conditions in Spain, France, and southeastern Europe. The combined EU and UK wheat harvest is now projected at 143.1 MMT, and rapeseed yields are recovering thanks to improved sowing in Romania, France, and Germany.

China’s wheat harvest has begun in the North China Plain under dry conditions, favoring good early progress. However, corn and soybeans may struggle without consistent rainfall, particularly in central and southeastern regions.

Rainfall variability is defining agricultural expectations globally. The U.S. Midwest faces delays due to lingering fronts, while the Canadian Prairies benefit from widespread precipitation. In contrast, parts of Australia and southern Europe are turning dry again, affecting winter crops like wheat and canola.

Malaysian palm oil prices remain relatively stable near 3,838 ringgit/ton, despite Indian import spikes. Chinese demand could rise, but EU interest remains limited due to high prices and sustainability concerns.

Export sales data released today will offer fresh insight into demand. Analysts forecast corn exports between 700,000–1.4 million tons, soybeans between 150,000–600,000 tons, and wheat between -100,000 to 500,000 tons for old crop, with new crop sales also under the microscope.