Wheat

Wheat futures closed Thursday under modest pressure following a mix of international developments and updated USDA reports. The July 2025 CBOT wheat contract settled at $5.26½ per bushel, marking a drop of 7¾ cents from Wednesday. Winter wheat was the primary driver of losses, with Chicago SRW and Kansas City HRW futures down 7–8 cents and 2–4 cents, respectively. However, Minneapolis spring wheat showed mild strength, up 2–5 cents, reflecting better resilience in that region. USDA's Crop Production report remained steady with total U.S. wheat production projected at 1.921 billion bushels, while new crop stocks dropped slightly due to increased export expectations. Meanwhile, Taiwan purchased 95,450 MT of U.S. wheat, and EU production outlooks were lifted by Coceral to 143.1 MMT, highlighting diverging global supply conditions.

Corn

Corn futures experienced modest gains on Thursday, with the July 2025 contract closing at $4.38½ per bushel, up 1½ cents. Despite bullish ethanol news—U.S. output hitting a record 1.12 million barrels/day—prices were restrained by wet weather forecasts across the Corn Belt. Export sales showed old crop bookings of 791,327 MT, with Japan, Mexico, and Colombia being key buyers, although the figure marked a 9-week low. The USDA's WASDE report cut U.S. ending stocks by 50 million bushels to 1.365 billion, reflecting stronger export potential. Brazil’s CONAB also raised its corn crop forecast to 128.25 MMT, while Argentina’s remained steady at 50 MMT, reinforcing Latin America’s central role in global corn trade.

Soybeans

Soybean futures dropped on Thursday as the market reacted to muted USDA adjustments and bearish export data. The July 2025 CBOT soybean contract closed at $10.42¼ per bushel, down 8¼ cents. Cash prices also fell by 7½ cents. Soymeal showed minor gains, but soyoil dropped 28–41 points amid expectations of regulatory updates on U.S. Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs). Export sales were especially weak: just 61,394 MT of old crop soybeans were sold—marking a marketing year low—with notable reductions in sales to unknown destinations. Brazil’s crop estimate was raised by CONAB to 169.6 MMT, while Argentina’s stayed flat. Despite slight increases in global ending stocks, market sentiment remained subdued, weighed down by soft physical demand and weather pressures across key U.S. growing regions.

Key Global Factrors Influencing Today’s Trade

US ethanol production surged to a record high of 1.12 million barrels per day last week, confirming robust seasonal demand. Alongside this, the Department of Energy reported a 2.9% drop in ethanol inventories, providing additional momentum for biofuel-linked commodities.

The USDA trimmed its 2025/26 U.S. wheat production forecast to 53.4 million tons, citing persistent dryness in spring wheat regions. While winter wheat conditions remain better than expected, top-producing states like North Dakota and Montana face renewed soil moisture deficits.

Trump’s renewed tariff threats loom large over global trade. He reiterated his plan to impose unilateral tariffs by July 9, sparking market concern despite a track record of shifting deadlines. Tensions with key trade partners remain unresolved.

Ukraine’s grain exports declined 19% YoY, totaling 39.3 million tons this season. Corn shipments dropped 23%, wheat 15%, and barley 5%, highlighting ongoing logistical challenges amid war conditions.

Argentina's wheat harvest estimate was cut to 20.7 MMT due to flood-related delays in planting. However, dry weather is aiding the harvest of corn and soybeans. The Buenos Aires Exchange pegs Argentina’s soybean crop at 50.3 MMT.

Coceral raised EU grain forecasts, estimating the combined EU and UK harvest at 300.7 million tons, driven by improved weather in southeastern Europe and stronger planting in countries like Romania and France.

India's edible oil imports surged, with palm oil purchases rising 84% MoM in May to a six-month high. Soyoil and sunflower oil imports also climbed, aided by favorable pricing and a reduction in crude oil import duties to 10%.

The Indian government has demanded edible oil producers pass on tax cut savings to consumers. The move is aimed at reducing food inflation and supporting the domestic refining sector by widening the duty gap between crude and refined oils.

In China, wheat harvests are beginning in dry conditions across the North China Plain. Although beneficial for early progress, corn and soybean crops remain vulnerable due to inconsistent rainfall, especially in central and southeastern areas.

Australia faces concerns over winter crop development, particularly canola and wheat, due to ongoing dryness inland. However, improved rainfall may arrive early next week across southeastern regions, offering limited relief.

The U.S. Midwest and Central Plains remain in an active weather pattern. While the Corn Belt is seeing a mix of drought and storms, rainfall is welcome in dry zones of Nebraska and the Dakotas. However, excessive rain in the Delta threatens the pace of cotton planting and wheat harvesting.

Export sales outlooks remain cautious. Analysts forecast weekly corn exports at 700,000–1.4 million tons, soybeans at 150,000–600,000 tons, and wheat between -100,000 and 500,000 tons. The new crop figures are also closely watched ahead of upcoming USDA updates.