The Black Sea grain market is undergoing notable transitions driven by positive harvest projections, shifting trade patterns, and cautious optimism about weather conditions. Corn markets are leading the movement, as forecasts point to a robust rebound in production across the region’s major exporters.

Corn Market Outlook: Abundant New Crop Set to Reshape Trade

Forward-looking expectations for corn production in the 2025/26 marketing year are buoyant, particularly in Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine. Romania’s output is forecast to rise to 11.4 million metric tons (mt), a sharp 76% increase over last season’s drought-impacted 6.46 million mt. Bulgaria is similarly expected to more than double its corn production, reaching 3.3 million mt from 1.6 million mt, while Ukraine could see an increase to 31 million mt from 25 million mt.

Improved planting conditions and stable acreage levels have laid the foundation for these optimistic forecasts. As a result, the market is already reacting. New crop offers from Ukraine are emerging at $216/mt FOB Pivdennyi (POC), reflecting a notable discount of $15–$20/mt compared to current old crop prices assessed at $236/mt FOB for July 7–21 loading.

Shifting Trading Behavior

Market sentiment, reinforced by discussions during the recent Balkans and Black Sea conference in Istanbul, indicates that buyers are postponing old crop purchases in anticipation of more competitively priced new crop supplies. For the Romania-Bulgaria Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) port complex, October–November new crop offers stand at $215/mt, with bids at $212/mt.

This dynamic has led to the virtual disappearance of forward contracts for old crop corn. Activity has shifted primarily to spot transactions, and demand has pivoted firmly toward the new harvest. For example, Ukrainian old crop corn for loading between July 7 and 21 is being assessed at $239/mt FOB CVB, but interest is fading.

Nonetheless, market participants remain wary of early-season optimism. As one Bulgarian trader pointed out, "Last year at this time everything looked normal—until the heatwave hit."

Wheat Market Update: Bulgaria Eyes 7 MMT Harvest

Bulgaria is also on track for a significant wheat harvest, with production projected at 7 million mt for MY 2025/26. Spring weather has generally supported winter crop development, and moderate temperatures coupled with adequate rainfall have strengthened prospects for both wheat and barley.

Farmers remain cautious, particularly regarding corn, after years of weather-related losses. Yet, barring severe disruptions in July and August, maize yields in Bulgaria could rise from a historically low 3.25 tons/ha in 2024 to between 4.4 and 5 tons/ha, with production ranging between 1.8–2.1 million mt in 2025/26.

Export and Import Dynamics

Limited availability and ongoing quality issues have dampened Bulgaria's maize exports, which totaled just 185,000 mt by the end of May—down from 548,000 mt the previous year. Greece remained the main buyer. In contrast, imports surged to 329,000 mt by May 2024, up sharply from just 10,000 mt a year earlier. Increased demand, particularly from industrial users like ethanol and starch producers, is helping absorb these volumes.

Meanwhile, wheat exports reached 5.63 million mt by the end of May, with 4.5 million mt shipped outside the EU. Key destinations included Algeria, Egypt, Spain, Thailand, and Greece. Barley exports have also been strong, totaling over 740,000 mt, with non-EU destinations such as Saudi Arabia and Morocco playing a central role.

Regional Outlook Remains Weather-Contingent

While the regional grain market appears poised for recovery, especially in corn, the upcoming weeks will be critical. Weather conditions during July and August will determine whether early optimism turns into actual yield improvements. Until then, forward pricing dynamics and cautious buyer behavior will continue to reflect both hope and uncertainty in this strategically important grain-exporting region.