Wheat, corn, and soybean futures opened the week on a fragile note, as global markets digest recent weather disruptions, shifting trade dynamics, and continued volatility in geopolitical tensions. Key crops remain under pressure, with investors responding to weak export trends and erratic weather signals from major producing regions.
Wheat prices began Monday's trading session with a decline, as July 2025 Chicago SRW wheat opened at $5.75¾ per bushel. The market remains weighed down by weak export activity, particularly for U.S. wheat, as competition from Black Sea suppliers continues to intensify. Despite recent rainfall aiding crops in parts of the U.S. Northern Plains and Russia, persistent dryness in Ukraine and Turkey raises concerns about overall regional yields. Meanwhile, drought conditions in Kansas and parts of the Southern Plains continue to stress crop development, although weekend precipitation in some areas brought mild relief. Globally, the wheat outlook is bifurcated, with strong harvest expectations in Romania and Bulgaria contrasting with ongoing uncertainties in Ukraine and Western Europe.
Corn futures also started lower, with July 2025 contracts in Chicago opening at $4.49½ per bushel. The corn market faces dual pressure from rapid Brazilian harvest progress and sluggish U.S. export sales. Weather across the Corn Belt remains mixed, with beneficial moisture in some western areas, but delays in field operations persist due to scattered storms. In Brazil, favorable conditions support robust yields for the second corn crop, further depressing prices on the global market. Ukraine's corn outlook remains solid, with planting now complete and weather mostly cooperative, but logistics remain a challenge amid ongoing conflict. Exporters continue to watch Turkish demand closely, which has surged amid lower domestic production.
Soybeans opened the week at $11.84½ per bushel for July 2025 contracts, dipping slightly amid lackluster export activity and lingering uncertainty around biofuel policy in the United States. Strong recent soybean imports by China, largely from Brazil, have temporarily saturated demand. Crushing margins remain under pressure in the U.S. due to slower farmer selling and reduced throughput during the planting season. Meanwhile, India’s increased import pace for vegetable oils, including soyoil, may lend some support to oilseed markets overall. South American soybean harvests are largely complete, with final estimates stable in both Brazil and Argentina, maintaining a heavy supply tone in the global market.
Geopolitical developments continue to cast a long shadow over commodity markets. The aftermath of Israel’s recent airstrikes on Iran has kept market participants on edge, especially given potential disruptions to global energy and shipping routes. Crude oil prices remain volatile, contributing to higher input costs for fertilizer and fuel, which could pressure grain margins. The threat of further escalation in the Middle East adds to an already complex risk environment for global trade.
The United States is also at the center of renewed trade policy uncertainty. President Donald Trump’s announcement of imminent new tariff measures has raised concerns among agricultural exporters, particularly those dependent on markets in China and the European Union. Past retaliatory actions suggest the potential for reduced U.S. grain competitiveness abroad if tariff hikes proceed as planned by the July 9 deadline.
In biofuels, policy shifts are stirring tension. The anticipated cut in biomass-based diesel mandates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for 2026–27 could limit demand for soy oil. Ethanol plants in the UK, such as Vivergo and Ensus, are also facing margin pressure following tariff-free U.S. ethanol imports. If closures materialize, the resulting drop in wheat usage could further aggravate oversupply in Europe.
Weather patterns remain central to the grain narrative. Western Europe faces an intensifying dry spell, with France, Germany, and Italy already showing early heat stress symptoms in corn and wheat. In the U.S., rainfall continues to disrupt harvests in the Southern Plains and fieldwork in the Midwest. Canada’s Prairies, however, are benefiting from timely precipitation that has boosted spring crop prospects and curbed wildfire risks.
In the Black Sea region, weather developments have been uneven. Russia has received above-average rainfall in some key zones, helping to stabilize wheat and corn crops. Conversely, Ukraine remains dry, especially in southern areas, raising late-season performance risks. Turkey’s continued dryness further underscores regional vulnerability. Despite these mixed signals, harvest expectations in Romania and Bulgaria remain strong, positioning the region as a key supply hub in the months ahead.
Trade flows are evolving in response to shifting demand centers. India has ramped up imports of palm, soy, and sunflower oils, responding to low stockpiles and reduced import duties. China’s soybean import surge continues, largely supplied by Brazil, as strategic stockpiling offsets slow progress in U.S. trade negotiations. Meanwhile, U.S. ethanol production remains strong, but policy uncertainties cloud its future trajectory.
Futures trading sentiment reflected market caution. Wheat and corn fell on Friday and continued to show weakness in early Monday trading. Soybeans are similarly under pressure, though soyoil shows modest resilience on the back of strong Asian demand. Year-to-date, soyoil remains the standout performer among grain derivatives, while corn and soymeal continue to underperform.
Looking ahead, the global grain market faces a confluence of weather uncertainty, shifting trade policies, and geopolitical risk that will likely shape price direction and export dynamics in the coming weeks. Traders remain sensitive to any data related to crop progress, fuel prices, or policy shifts, as the market navigates one of the most uncertain early summer periods in recent memory.