Wheat

Chicago wheat futures closed weaker on Wednesday, with the September 2025 contract settling at $5.02 ¼ per bushel, down 7 ¼ cents on the day. Kansas City hard red winter wheat also ended lower, dropping 4 to 7 ½ cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat fell sharply by 13 to 15 ¼ cents. Despite robust U.S. weekly export shipments of 946,240 tons led by Asian buyers, the market continues to be weighed down by ample Russian supply, with IKAR raising its harvest forecast to 86 million tons and exports to 43 million tons. The European Commission reported that EU soft wheat exports have fallen 48% year-on-year to just 2.18 million tons, underscoring competitive pressures. Ukraine’s farmers’ union pegged the 2025 wheat harvest at 21.8 million tons, below last year’s 22.7 million, while analysts also await updated Canadian wheat production data.

Corn

Corn futures slipped further into the close on Wednesday, with the September 2025 contract finishing at $3.82 ½ per bushel, down 5 cents. Losses in wheat pressured the market, while ethanol production added a bearish tone, with U.S. weekly output edging down by 2,000 barrels per day to 1.07 million bpd and stocks falling to 22.55 million barrels. Export activity provided some support, as Taiwan purchased 65,000 tons of U.S. corn overnight, and cumulative U.S. shipments stand at 65.5 million tons, up 28% year-on-year. In Brazil, corn exports for August are forecast at 7.8 million tons, slightly below earlier estimates but still significant. However, ongoing disease risks in the Midwest, including southern rust and northern blight, keep traders cautious about late-season yield potential.

Soybeans

Soybean futures also closed lower on Wednesday, with September 2025 contracts ending at $10.27 ¼ per bushel, down 1 ½ cents. Soymeal and soyoil futures both weakened, reflecting softer demand. Weekly export shipments of 382,806 tons remain well below recent levels, though cumulative exports are still 11.5% ahead of last year at 49.3 million tons. Brazil’s August soybean export forecast was revised slightly lower to 8.9 million tons, with soymeal shipments trimmed to 2.13 million tons. Market sentiment found some support from confirmation that a senior Chinese trade envoy will visit Washington this week, fueling hopes for U.S.–China agricultural progress, even as Brazil maintains its dominance in China’s soybean imports.

Global Market Drivers

Indonesia announced that the United States has agreed in principle to exempt its palm oil, cocoa, and rubber exports from the 19% tariffs imposed earlier this month. The talks also included potential U.S. investment in Indonesian fuel storage and industrial parks, highlighting how trade flows are increasingly intertwined with geopolitical negotiations.

South America remains a focal point, with Brazil’s grain sector under financial strain despite record harvest forecasts of 176.5 million tons of soybeans and 138.4 million tons of corn for 2025/26. Rising loan defaults and tight credit conditions are curbing fertilizer purchases, raising concerns about future productivity. Meanwhile, a federal court preserved the country’s soy moratorium, maintaining restrictions on purchases linked to Amazon deforestation.

Argentina’s wheat crop faces renewed stress as forecasts point to over 100 mm of rain across Cordoba later this week, increasing risks of flooding and disease. Earlier frost damage has already reduced confidence in yields. Still, soybean meal shipments to China are slowly resuming, signaling a gradual normalization of trade flows.

In Europe, the EU’s MARS unit cut corn yield forecasts due to drought and heat in Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, and southern Ukraine, while conditions remain favorable in Spain, northern France, Germany, and Poland. This disparity underscores the uneven growing environment across the bloc.

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s wheat harvest is now seen at 21.8 million tons, with corn output expected between 28 and 29 million tons. Weak milling wheat demand has pushed prices lower, with competition from Russian exports intensifying in North African markets. Kazakhstan also trimmed its wheat outlook to 16.3 million tons due to reduced sown area, although favorable northern weather may still help yields.

Australia’s wheat harvest forecast was lifted to as high as 35 million tons following timely rains in July and August. Combined with carryover stocks from last year, this surge in supply is expected to further pressure global prices. Analysts also raised barley and canola forecasts, reflecting broadly improved crop prospects.

Weather patterns worldwide remain crucial. The U.S. Midwest faces a cooler and drier stretch, potentially limiting late-season crop development. Canada braces for a heatwave across the western Prairies, while Europe expects widespread showers that could benefit corn and aid wheat planting. Heavy rains continue in India’s Maharashtra region, raising flood risks, while tropical storms Fernand and Juliette are not expected to hit land but keep markets alert.

Finally, logistical and protein market dynamics added pressure. U.S. barge shipments along the Mississippi fell to 667,000 tons last week from 853,000, with soybean volumes plunging 36%. In the protein sector, U.S. poultry slaughter rose 1.6% year-on-year in July, while Brazil’s poultry exports remain constrained by avian flu restrictions. These interlinked developments continue to shape grain demand and price volatility.