Wheat

Chicago wheat futures for September 2025 opened Thursday’s session at $5.00 per bushel, slipping 2 ¼ cents after closing lower on Wednesday at $5.02 ¼. Kansas City hard red winter contracts also weakened, down 4 to 7 ½ cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat tumbled by as much as 15 ¼ cents. Pressure continues to stem from Russia, where Argus lifted its 2025/26 soft wheat forecast to 86.1 million tons, the third-largest on record, with exports set to exceed 43 million tons. Ukraine’s farmers’ union pegged the harvest at 21.8 million tons, below last year’s 22.7 million, and analysts await updated Canadian production estimates later today, expected in the range of 34.2–37.2 million tons. Despite solid U.S. exports of 946,240 tons last week, global competition is intensifying, particularly as France must push aggressively into non-EU markets to absorb its rebound crop.

Corn

Corn futures for September 2025 began Thursday at $3.84 per bushel, up 1 ½ cents from the overnight session after Wednesday’s close at $3.82 ½. Losses in wheat weighed heavily on corn midweek, but a modest rebound emerged on Thursday morning. The U.S. corn crop remains on track for a record harvest near 415 million tons, with 71% of fields rated good-to-excellent. Ethanol production edged down by 2,000 barrels per day last week to 1.07 million bpd, while stocks fell to 22.55 million barrels, adding a bearish undertone. Still, exports provided some support—Taiwan confirmed a 65,000-ton purchase of U.S. corn, and cumulative shipments now total 65.5 million tons, up 28% from last year. In South Africa, the corn crop forecast was lifted by 5.1% to 15.8 million tons, while China’s production outlook dipped slightly to 299 million tons due to prolonged heat stress in Henan and Shandong, even as Northeast China fields remain in excellent condition.

Soybeans

Soybean futures opened Thursday at $10.27 ¼ per bushel, unchanged from the overnight session after closing down 1 ½ cents on Wednesday. Weakness extended across soymeal and soyoil, with the former losing $3.40–$6.20 and the latter down 11–33 points. Weekly U.S. export shipments remain muted at 382,806 tons, though cumulative exports still outpace last year by 11.5%. Brazil’s August soybean export forecast was revised slightly lower to 8.9 million tons, while soymeal shipments were trimmed to 2.13 million tons. Analysts expect today’s USDA report to show net reductions of up to 200,000 tons for old-crop soybeans but new sales between 450,000 and 1 million tons. Market sentiment remains cautiously supported by hopes of progress in U.S.–China trade talks, though Brazil continues to dominate Chinese imports, and domestic debates in Brazil over seed “breeding incentives” could reshape long-term competitiveness.

Global Market Drivers

Updated quality results from France confirmed falling protein levels in this year’s wheat crop, with just 69% testing above 11%, well below the five-year average of 83%. While test weights and Hagberg falling numbers remain strong, the weaker protein profile raises questions about milling quality and export competitiveness, especially as France seeks to regain ground in non-EU markets such as Morocco and Southeast Asia.

Weather remains a central market driver. The U.S. Corn Belt is expected to see an extended stretch of cool and dry weather into September, which could reduce late-season development for corn and soybeans. In Europe, persistent rainfall is improving conditions for late corn while priming soils for winter wheat sowing. Meanwhile, Argentina anticipates heavy rainfall in Cordoba later this week, raising concerns about flooding and disease in wheat crops, while Brazil benefits from timely showers ahead of spring planting.

Canada is in focus with Statistics Canada set to release official estimates, with the wheat crop expected around 35.6 million tons, up slightly from last season. Canola output is forecast to rise 4.6% to 20.1 million tons. However, China has begun diversifying imports away from Canada, booking three shipments of Australian canola for the fourth quarter, the first such purchases since 2020 after phytosanitary trade disputes.

In the Black Sea, Argus sees Ukraine’s wheat harvest at 21.9 million tons, while Russia’s expansionary forecast of 86.1 million tons underscores its tightening grip on world wheat flows. Record crops in Spain, Romania, and Bulgaria further highlight Europe’s surplus, though logistical and political challenges remain. Weak demand for Ukrainian milling wheat continues to depress prices, with North Africa increasingly dominated by Russian supply.

South America faces financial strains despite bumper crop projections. Brazil’s soy and corn farmers continue to struggle with a farm credit crunch, slowing fertilizer purchases as interest rates climb to their highest level since 2006. Defaults are at record highs, raising concerns about future productivity. Simultaneously, a federal court preserved Brazil’s soy moratorium, restricting purchases linked to Amazon deforestation, a move applauded by environmental groups but controversial among producers.

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee raised its commercial corn forecast to 15.8 million tons, a 23% jump year on year. The increase reflects gains in both white corn (used for porridge) and yellow corn (used for feed). This outlook adds further weight to global corn supplies, alongside record U.S. and near-record Chinese production levels, despite localized crop stress in China’s Henan and Shandong provinces.

Egypt raised its procurement price for the 2026 wheat season to 2,250–2,350 pounds per ardab, up from 2,100–2,200 last year. The move signals the government’s effort to secure domestic supply amid volatile global prices and increasing competition for imports, particularly with Russia’s dominant position in export markets.

Logistics and protein markets continue to play into the grain balance sheet. U.S. barge shipments along the Mississippi fell sharply last week to 667,000 tons from 853,000, with soybean volumes down 36%. At the same time, the U.S. poultry sector reported a 1.6% increase in slaughter during July, while Brazil’s exports remain capped by avian flu restrictions. These intertwined shifts continue to influence feed demand and ripple across grain pricing.