Wheat
Chicago SRW Dec ’25 settled at $5.23¾/bu, up 4½¢, as the complex firmed with HRW and HRS also higher. Spring-wheat harvest reached 85% by Sept 7 (1 pt above normal), while weekly export inspections slipped to 425k t, still 10% above last year’s pace since June 1. Forecasts for broader rains across the Central/Southern Plains later this week framed a supportive-but-cautious finish.
Corn
Chicago Dec ’25 closed at $4.21¾/bu, up 3¾¢, after clawing back from early pressure. NASS reported 74% dent, 25% mature, and 4% harvested, with conditions off 1 pt to 68% G/E. Export inspections printed 1.443 MMT for the week, led by Mexico, Japan, and Colombia, while the cmdtyView national cash gauge edged to $3.77.
Soybeans
Chicago Nov ’25 finished at $10.33¾/bu, up 6¾¢, as products firmed (soymeal +$1.00 to +$4.20; soyoil steady to +17). NASS showed 97% pod set and 21% dropping leaves with conditions down 1 pt to 64% G/E. Export inspections were 452k t on the week, and China’s August imports hit a record 12.28 MMT, keeping demand optics in focus.
| CBOT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | Contract | USD/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | December | 192.45 | +1.65 |
| Corn | December | 166.04 | +1.48 |
| Soybeans | November | 379.84 | +2.48 |
| Soymeal | October | 310.74 | +1.54 |
| EURONEXT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris | Contract | EUR/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | September | 186.50 | +0.50 |
| Corn | November | 186.50 | +0.50 |
| Rapeseed | November | 460.00 | -1.25 |
Global factors shaping the session
Fresh policy frictions added uncertainty. China postponed its final canola ruling until March 2026, keeping punitive duties in place, while simultaneously criticizing a proposed U.S. EPA rule that would halve renewable diesel credits for imported feedstocks—an unusual alignment with U.S. refiners and Big Oil. This deepens tensions just as Canada prepares to support its canola and metals sectors with large-scale aid packages.
Black Sea flows painted a mixed picture. Russia has shipped 7 MMT of grain since early July and still aims for 33 MMT in the second half of the year, yet Ukraine’s new 10% duty on rapeseed and soy exports has temporarily stalled shipments, disrupting vegetable oil and meal flows. APK-Inform lifted Ukraine’s 2025 harvest forecast to 58.8 MMT with exports at 41.9 MMT, signaling stronger potential if logistical bottlenecks ease.
Brazil stood out with resilient export momentum. CEPEA reported August soybean exports of 9.33 MMT—a monthly record—while stronger domestic premiums reflected brisk shipments and a firmer real-dollar exchange rate. Corn shipments also accelerated, with sellers restricting spot supply to take advantage of improved export parity.
On the demand side, U.S. weekly export sales showed Mexico leading corn purchases with 708k tons and Nigeria booking 117k tons of wheat. Pork and beef sales to Mexico and Japan also pointed to cross-commodity strength that could ripple into feed demand.
Outlook markers came into focus as S&P Global placed U.S. corn yields at 189.1 bpa and soybeans at 53.8 bpa, marginally above USDA’s August baselines. Early Brazil signals showed 2025/26 soybean forward sales lagging at 20.5%, though fieldwork has begun in the south and initial rains in central regions could bring forward planting.