Wheat

Chicago SRW December 2025 wheat ended Thursday at $5.21½ per bushel, up 6½ cents, while Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat also edged higher. Gains came despite weak weekly U.S. export sales of just 305,351 MT, the second-lowest this marketing year, though Japan and Indonesia provided some demand. The market now looks to Friday’s WASDE, with traders expecting U.S. stocks near 865 mbu and no major changes in production until the Small Grains report. Meanwhile, Europe’s wheat balance gained some support after Expana raised EU output by 3.3 MMT to 136.1 MMT, though Russian upgrades continued to cap upside sentiment.

Corn

Corn futures finished the session firmer, with December 2025 closing at $4.19¾ per bushel, up 2¾ cents. Export sales for the week totaled 539,900 MT, led by Mexico and Japan, while an additional 1.17 MMT carried over from last season boosted cumulative 2025/26 commitments to 22.6 MMT—the second-highest on record. Brazil’s CONAB lifted its 2024/25 corn crop outlook by 2.67 MMT to 139.67 MMT, reinforcing the competitive export backdrop. Domestically, the U.S. corn crop remains in good condition but is showing signs of yield pressure from volatile weather as harvest begins.

Soybeans

Soybean futures extended gains, with November 2025 closing at $10.33½ per bushel, up 8¼ cents. Weekly U.S. export sales came in at 541,055 MT, with most booked to unknown destinations, while carryover of late 2024/25 business pushed total new-crop commitments to 9.35 MMT—the smallest start since 2009/10. Soymeal futures rose $1–$2.60, while soyoil advanced 49–61 points. CONAB revised Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop upward by 1.92 MMT to 171.47 MMT, adding weight to the global supply picture even as traders eye NOPA’s August crush data due Monday.

Global Market Drivers

Trade politics and supply shifts kept volatility high. Markets braced for the U.S. Supreme Court’s November hearing on emergency tariff powers, a case that could either slash levies dramatically or entrench presidential control over trade policy. Grain exporters and importers alike are recalibrating forward strategies as uncertainty over tariff outcomes clouds 2026 competitiveness.

Biofuels remained a focal point, but this time with renewed emphasis on Brazil’s ambitions. The government’s long-range energy plan projected US$20 billion in biofuel investments and a 60% rise in corn-based ethanol output by 2035, while private players like Inpasa and Amaggi mapped out new plants in Mato Grosso. These moves underline South America’s structural pivot, positioning Brazil not only as a soybean powerhouse but as a decisive arbiter in global corn balance sheets.

In the Black Sea, Russia reinforced its dominance. Analysts raised the wheat crop outlook beyond 87 MMT, fueled by exceptional yields in Siberia and the Urals, while exports could climb toward 44 MMT. This sheer scale has pressured global FOB values lower, with September offers sliding to $228–$230/MT, a rare seasonal downdraft that continues to challenge EU and U.S. exporters.

South America showed divergence. Argentina is expected to harvest a record 61 MMT of corn in 2025/26, largely at soybeans’ expense, with acreage cuts trimming bean output prospects. Brazil, by contrast, is sustaining momentum on both crops, shipping nearly 15 MMT combined in September alone, highlighting its swing role as top buyer China shifts sourcing away from U.S. origins.

China’s demand story broadened. Beyond pork market interventions, Beijing approved Brazilian sorghum imports, opening a new supply line within 60 days. This comes as U.S. sorghum exports to China have collapsed 97% year-on-year, marking another structural tilt in trade flows. With China’s soybean imports hitting record highs, attention is shifting not only to volume but to the composition of protein demand, as feed rations adjust in real time.

Weather injected both relief and risk. North America’s warmth should speed up harvest after early cold spells, though dryness in the southern Midwest raises concerns for corn finishing. Europe is contending with excessive rainfall that could affect local harvests but also sets up better seedbeds for winter crops. The Black Sea remains dry—positive for fieldwork but a potential stress point for late corn and establishing winter wheat. Meanwhile, Australia juggles beneficial rains and frost hazards, keeping its wheat outlook in play.

North American logistics presented their own challenges. The Mississippi River’s low levels and elevated barge costs continue to complicate fall flows, even as ethanol output stays strong at 1.105m b/d and stocks build toward 22.8m bbl. Export commitments in corn and soy remain supportive, but traders are wary of how river conditions could distort basis levels into October.

Finally, structural tightening in oilseeds is shaping trade psychology. Canada’s canola stocks plunged to just 1.597 MMT at July’s end—down more than 50% year-on-year—leaving a thinner cushion for biodiesel demand later this quarter. At the same time, Malaysian palm oil inventories climbed above 2.2 MMT, weighing on nearby palm values and altering Asian crush spreads. The push and pull across vegoils is adding another layer of complexity to pricing signals in soy and rapeseed markets.