The wheat complex could not hold on to early-week gains and turned lower on Wednesday. December CBOT wheat settled at $5.28¼ per bushel, down 5¾ cents on the day, with Kansas City HRW off 7–8 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat easing 2–3 cents. Selling pressure came from profit-taking and fresh supply outlooks, while traders positioned ahead of the weekly U.S. Export Sales report. South Korean millers entered the market for 30,000 tons of U.S. wheat, but FranceAgriMer trimmed French ending stocks to 3.64 MMT, signaling tighter availability in Europe. Canada meanwhile lifted its wheat crop estimate to 36.62 MMT, modestly above last year.

Corn futures softened as well, with December ’25 closing at $4.26¾ per bushel, down 2¾ cents. The weekly EIA report confirmed ethanol output slipping by 50,000 bpd to 1.055 million bpd, though still slightly above last year’s levels. Ethanol stocks eased to 22.6 million barrels. Trade estimates for the upcoming Export Sales report call for 0.5–1.9 MMT in new corn bookings. Stats Canada pegged corn production at 15.5 MMT, up 1% year-on-year. In international trade, a private South Korean buyer secured 65,000 tons in a recent tender.

Soybeans finished weaker, with November ’25 ending at $10.43¾ per bushel, down 6 cents. Soymeal slipped 40 cents while soyoil surrendered more than Tuesday’s gains. Export business is awaited, with sales expected between 0.4 and 1.5 MMT for the week, while canola figures from Canada showed a rebound to 20.03 MMT, up 4.1% year-on-year, even as soybean production fell 5.7% to 7.13 MMT. The weaker close reflected both positioning and pressure from ample South American supply forecasts.

Australia stole headlines after pledging A$1.1 billion ($735 million) over the next decade to develop a domestic biofuels sector, aiming to leverage canola and sorghum for renewable fuels. GrainCorp welcomed the move, noting that 70% of canola is currently exported unprocessed. The policy shift could re-route oilseed flows and reshape export patterns from 2029 onwards.

In the U.S., the Environmental Protection Agency released a long-awaited proposal on reallocating waived Small Refinery Exemptions. Options range from 50% to 100% reallocation, with comments open until October 31. Biofuel groups hailed the chance for stronger demand for corn-based ethanol and soy feedstocks, while refiners warned of higher costs. The ambiguity of the proposal leaves markets bracing for prolonged uncertainty.

Brazil continued to ramp up its oilseed outlook. Industry group Abiove raised its 2025 soymeal production forecast to 45.1 MMT and soyoil to 11.7 MMT, with total crush projected at 58.5 MMT. Export projections also climbed, with ANEC now seeing September shipments at 7.53 MMT for soybeans, 2.19 MMT for soymeal, and 7.12 MMT for corn. Combined with an expected 17% jump in ethanol output to 42 billion liters by 2027–28, mostly from corn, Brazil is cementing its dominance in both biofuels and global grain supply.

Russia jolted trade flows by sharply increasing its wheat export duty to 495.9 rubles/ton for the Sept 17–23 window, nearly tripling from the previous week. At the same time, updated estimates put Russia’s 2025/26 wheat crop at 84.7 MMT, driven by record yields in Stavropol. The duty on corn was also reinstated at 398.2 rubles/ton after a five-week pause. Kazakhstan’s crop outlook held steady at 16.3 MMT, though harvest delays from rains persist. These shifts reinforce Black Sea influence on Q4 pricing and competitiveness.

Europe’s export pace remains muted. EU soft-wheat exports totaled 3.78 MMT as of Sept. 14, down 34% year-on-year, with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Morocco the top buyers. Barley exports are firmer at 1.8 MMT, while corn imports have slumped 43% to 2.5 MMT. Missing French data continues to cloud the picture, complicating assessments of true EU trade flows.

Weather added another layer of complexity. Warm conditions in the U.S. and Canada are aiding late spring crop harvests, but persistent rains across the northwest Corn Belt are slowing soybean progress and could dent quality. The Delta remains parched with falling Mississippi River levels, constraining logistics. In South America, Brazil awaits a consistent wet season start in Mato Grosso, while Argentina enjoys favorable soil moisture for corn and sunflower planting. The Black Sea, meanwhile, saw rains moving eastward, a potential help for winter wheat planting, though overall dryness persists.

Livestock markets in the U.S. added a bearish undertone for feed grains. August cattle placements are estimated down 8.5% year-on-year to the lowest level since 2015, with total feedlot inventory also easing. A reduction in feed demand, if realized, could weigh on corn use in coming months.

As markets digested this broad mix of supply signals, policy shifts, and weather developments, grains closed weaker on Wednesday, underscoring how the global balance remains hostage to both political decisions and climatic risks.